305
FXUS64 KAMA 091811
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
111 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Current GOES-16 water imagery depicts a closed mid to upper low
over the Four Corners Region with some moisture that has split
off from a highly positive tilted trough that has encompassed much
of CONUS, expanding from the coast of CA up through the Great
Lakes Regions. This closed low is progged to bring showers and
thunderstorms to CO and north to northeastern NM overnight
tonight. Although confidence is low at this time, there is a
chance that some of the shower activity can bleed into far western
portions of the combined Panhandles tonight. Through tomorrow the
aforementioned upper level trough will continue to bring rain
chances to much of NM. Then again, tomorrow night the far western
combined Panhandles will once again have around a 20 PoP with
this activity potentially bleeding into the western FA.

For now surface winds remain northerly to easterly with cool
daytime temperatures expected for tomorrow with highs in the
upper 60s to the west and 70s to the east. Low level moisture will
start to increase a bit going into tomorrow as well with H7
theta-e picking up, and dewpoints rising into the lower 40s. This
will help set things up for rain potential over the weekend when
the aforementioned upper level trough begins to overtake the
combined Panhandles and much of West Texas.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The panhandles has a high chance of seeing active weather for the
weekend and next work week.

Initially this will be in the form of a broad trough to weak
closed low sitting over the desert SW with a weak ridge over the
southern plains. This setup will allow return moisture to push
into the panhandles from the SE during the weekend. Some moisture
will already have pushed into the panhandles from the N earlier
which combined with the return flow will allow the whole
panhandles the opportunity to see rain and thunderstorms. This
doesn`t guarantee that all spots will see rain as these showers
will be scattered in nature, so some spots may see several rain
showers and other spots none. Saturday will have a lesser chance
for the rain along with lesser amounts as the moisture will have
just arrived and the dynamics and instability for the trough being
less as it is far away. Sunday will see higher moisture as this
will be second day of return flow along with higher instability
and dynamics as the trough/closed low passes over the southern
plains. This will create more extensive rain showers and
thunderstorm coverage which will be capable of producing higher
rainfall amounts. The instability and dynamics are supportive of
causing isolated strong to even severe storm in the panhandles
with hail and winds being the most likely threats. The weekend
will have a high chance of being on the cooler side as the the
moisture cause extensive clouds and the system passes cooler air
over the region.

The start of next work week will see the trough/closed low push
eastward out of the southern plains. This will shift the upper
level flow to be more out of the NW allowing for several small
trough to push into the southern plains. Some limited moisture
has a moderate chance of arriving with these troughs allowing for
rain showers and thunderstorms during each of their passages.
However there is a fairly large amount of uncertainty in this
pattern evolution so this forecast may change. This would mainly
center around the amount of moisture available to cause either
more extensive or lack of rain showers and thunderstorms, and the
amount of instability for how intense these showers and
thunderstorms would be. Next work week looks to be an overall
warmer period even with the passage of the series of troughs.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18Z TAF period.
Winds will generally be out of the north or east and below 10 kts.
KAMA may see winds upwards of 15 to 18 kts between now and 00Z
Fri. Expect a few to scattered high clouds through the period.
KDHT as a low end chance for some showers mainly between 00Z and
06Z Friday. Have left out mentions of rain in the TAF due to low
confidence in the eastward extent of activity that should be
primarily in eastern NM.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                48  72  50  69 /  10  10  10  40
Beaver OK                  46  76  47  79 /  10  10   0  10
Boise City OK              45  67  46  69 /  30  20  10  50
Borger TX                  50  77  52  76 /  10  10   0  30
Boys Ranch TX              49  73  50  72 /  10  10  10  50
Canyon TX                  47  72  50  69 /  10  10  10  40
Clarendon TX               49  74  52  71 /   0  10   0  30
Dalhart TX                 44  68  44  68 /  20  10  10  50
Guymon OK                  45  74  47  75 /  10  10   0  30
Hereford TX                47  72  49  68 /  10   0  10  50
Lipscomb TX                49  77  50  79 /   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   48  74  50  73 /  10   0   0  20
Shamrock TX                50  76  51  75 /   0   0   0  10
Wellington TX              51  77  53  74 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...36