-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
894
FXUS61 KBUF 111128
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
628 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Expanded Winter Weather Advisories to include Northern Cayuga and
Wayne county through 1 PM Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
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1) Lake enhanced-upslope snows will focus east-southeast of the
lakes today and then southeast-south of the lakes tonight into
Thursday.

2) An area of low pressure may bring a light accumulating snow to
western and north-central NY later Friday into Saturday.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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KEY MESSAGE 1...Lake enhanced-upslope snows will focus east-
southeast of the lakes today and then southeast-south of the
lakes tonight into Thursday.

The departed clipper low will exit well out to see today with colder
air continuing to wrap back in across the region. With the arrival
of the colder air and synoptic moisture replenishing we should see
snow showers east of the lakes focused across the higher terrain of
Lake Erie and also across upslope areas of Lake Ontario. Flow veers
from the west to the west-northwest by this evening behind the
passage of a secondary front. This will focus lake enhanced snows
southeast-south of the lakes overnight. We will also see synoptic
moisture begin to get stripped away overnight which will result in
diminishing snows as we head into Thursday.

Overall...the greatest snowfall amounts will be found east-southeast
of lake Ontario, especially across the Tug Hill where an additional
4 to 8" will be possible. Elsewhere...expect lesser amounts of 2-6"
in the most persistent snows.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An area of low pressure may bring a light
accumulating snow to western and north-central NY later Friday into
Saturday.

A shortwave trough and surface low pressure is expected to move
across southern Quebec and southern New England Friday through
Saturday. Increasing moisture and lift ahead of this system may
bring a period of accumulating snow to the forecast area. At this
time, there is higher probability of snow east of Lake Ontario due
to the proximity of the low. Confidence in the track of the low
remains low and therefore probability of snow is low (20-40%) across
western NY and medium (45-65%) east of Lake Ontario.
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&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Snow showers will produce low end VFR to MVFR-IFR conditions across
area terminals today.

Tonight...lake enhance snows will impact terminals southeast and
south of the lakes with MVFR to IFR conditions.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR to IFR south of the lakes and scattered snow
showers.

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR, but restrictions possible in
snow showers east of Lake Ontario late Friday and early Saturday.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
A secondary cold front will cross the Lower Lakes today with west
winds veering to the northwest by this evening. Small craft
headlines are in place on Lake Ontario during this time frame. Winds
weaken on Thursday as the gradient relaxes across the region. The
next chance for small craft conditions will arrive Friday with a
clipper low diving south towards the lakes.

 Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
are now ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ004-005.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ043-
         044.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR/HSK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR