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226
FXUS61 KBUF 261708
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
108 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will drift east from the Great Lakes into New England
through the weekend, bringing an extended period of dry weather and
a day to day warming trend. Heat will build Sunday and Monday,
although humidity levels will remain low to moderate. More humid
conditions will arrive by the middle of next week, along with a
chance of a few showers and thunderstorms as a trough of low
pressure approaches from the west.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Satellite imagery showing scattered diurnal cumulus inland from the
lakes early this afternoon. Cumulus fields will likely thin out
through the rest of the afternoon as the supporting shallow layer of
low level moisture noted on the 12Z KBUF sounding depletes with
daytime mixing. Highs will reach around 80 for lower elevations and
mid 70s for higher terrain.

High pressure will continue to drift slowly east from the central
Great Lakes tonight to the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, bringing
more dry and mainly clear weather. The clear skies and light winds
will allow for good radiational cooling conditions again tonight,
with lows dropping back into the 50s. Expect some river valley fog
across the Southern Tier late tonight through early Saturday
morning.

Saturday, a few diurnal cumulus may develop again with daytime
heating inland from the lakes. Otherwise, plenty of sunshine once
again. Ongoing airmass modification will add on a few more degrees
to temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 80s for lower
elevations on upper 70s on the hills.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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An omega block will drift east across the Ohio Valley and eastern
Great Lakes Sunday, with surface high pressure beneath drifting from
NY/PA and New England Sunday into southern Quebec by Monday. High
pressure surface and aloft will continue to support an extended
period of dry weather for the second half of the weekend into at
least the first half of Monday. A mid level trough and associated
weak surface trough will move into the western Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley later Monday. A gradual increase in large scale forcing,
moisture, and instability will bring a low chance of a late day
shower or thunderstorm to far Western NY, but the better rain
chances will remain west of our region through Monday.

Temperatures will continue their day to day warming trend with
building heights and ongoing warm advection. Highs Sunday and Monday
will be in the upper 80s to near 90, with mid 80s for higher
terrain. Surface dewpoints only slowly rise through the period, with
no appreciable heat index above and beyond the actual air
temperature through Monday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Very warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through this
period. Temperatures above normal, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to
mid 70s will keep days humid and nights muggy. Heat index values
will near 90F, and lower 90s by Friday. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day through this period.

A closed Atlantic low will start this period off the Atlantic
coastline, drifting north/northwestward. Exact track and timing of
this closed low is still with uncertainty...which will have
ramifications on the timing of the trough/ridge progression the
remainder of the week. As such timing showers and thunderstorms will
be difficult. Weak, mild flow aloft does not bring an increase
potential for severe storms as of yet, though the PWAT values 1.75"+
within this weak flow could yield drenching thunderstorms with
potential hydro concerns.
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&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Scattered diurnal cumulus with VFR bases early this afternoon will
mix out and dissipate later this afternoon or early evening. Clear
skies and VFR will prevail in most areas tonight. Areas of river
valley fog will develop across the Southern Tier with local IFR. The
chance of fog at KJHW is low (but non-zero) with a better chance of
fog in the surrounding valleys.

Saturday, Southern Tier river valley fog will burn off by mid
morning, leaving VFR to prevail as high pressure remains over the
eastern Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog with local IFR
possible across the Southern Tier each overnight/early morning.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Surface high pressure will drift from the central Great Lakes
tonight to the lower Great Lakes Saturday, then into New England
Sunday before weakening over southern Quebec Monday. This will
promote excellent boating conditions through the weekend with
sunshine, winds 10 knots or less, and flat wave action.
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&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock