Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 100802 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 402 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the region through the first half of today. A band of showers and a few thunderstorms with the front will gradually end from west to east. A large area of low pressure will then move into the Great Lakes later in the week, producing an extended period of wet and windy weather tonight through Friday night with several waves of soaking rainfall and gusty winds. The rain may end as a little wet snow late Friday night and early Saturday, especially across higher terrain.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cold front just upstream of the area early this morning. One area of convection exiting the north central New York ahead of northward lifting warm front. Another area of mainly showers working northeast from Ohio and western Pennsylvania ahead of the cold front. This area of showers is located within a plume of deep moisture advecting northeast ahead of the surface cold front and the expectation is that this area will expand across the area through the morning as cold front presses southeast into the area. The front should make it through most of the region by mid afternoon, ending shower chances behind it with some partial clearing. Showers and isolated thunderstorm may continue through the afternoon along the western Southern Tier near the front with some building weak diurnal instability. Temperatures today will not be as warm as Tuesday, but still mild for this time of year with highs in the lower to mid 60s. The front will eventual stall just to the south of the area with a fairly brief dry period lasting into this evening. The front will shift back northward later this evening and tonight as upper heights slowly rise to the south of it, as a cutoff low lifts out of the southern plains. Deep moisture advecting northward from the Gulf will send a widespread area of moderate rain and showers northward across the area tonight as the front works back into the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... By Thursday morning, model consensus has the warm frontal boundary to our north, which would put our region in the warm sector. While it will be moist, expect scattered showers but no steady rain during the first half of Thursday when the area will be in the warm sector. The surface low nudges closer and the LLJ strengthens in the afternoon, bringing a better chance for showers, especially Thursday night when the core of the LLJ moves from west to east across the area. This could produce moderate to heavy rainfall, with elevated instability suggesting there`s even a chance of thunderstorms. Showers and storms expected to produce moderate rainfall amounts in the half inch to inch ballpark, which is unlikely to produce any flooding. Southerly 50 knot flow at 850mb will partially mix to the surface in favorable downslope regions downwind of the Chautauqua Ridge, Tug Hill, and higher terrain in the Finger Lakes region. Advisory level gusts to 50 mph are anticipated in these region, with gusts 35 to 45 mph expected elsewhere. These winds tend to be strongest during dry periods. The low will strengthen to about 984mb as it passes by to the north during Friday. This will result in breezy southwesterly winds during the day, along with periodic showers as an associated cold front moves across the region. A few thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. The low and mid level trough will be slow to exit, maintaining a risk for showers through Friday night in the northwesterly flow following the cold front. Thursday will be warm with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s, and nighttime temperatures will remain above normal Thursday night. Cooler on Friday following the cold frontal passage with highs mainly in the 50s. By Friday night it may be cool enough for some wet snow to mix in across higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will slowly exit northward across Quebec on Saturday, with rain or wet snow showers tapering off from west to east. High pressure will briefly ridge northward into the area Saturday night, this will then be followed by a clipper low which will bring a chance of showers Sunday and Sunday night. After this there is some model disagreement, but the majority show a mainly dry pattern for Monday and Tuesday next week. High temperatures will be on the cool side on Saturday but then will rebound to slightly above normal by Sunday. The warm pattern through early next week with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A frontal boundary will cross the region today. Showers will focus along and ahead of the front. Some potential for a few thunderstorms as well, but confidence is too low to place at any one location at this time. MVFR conditions will be possible at times in heavier rain. Some local IFR is possible this morning across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, including KJHW. The front will work back north tonight with widespread rain and showers overspreading the area from south to north. Conditions should deteriorate to MVFR/IFR at all terminals after midnight. Outlook... Thursday...MVFR to IFR with widespread rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Friday...MVFR/IFR with occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Saturday...MVFR/IFR early with rain/snow showers, gradually improving to VFR. Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
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&& .MARINE...
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A weak cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes through today, but winds will be light through the period with negligible wave action. A strong low pressure system will move northeast across the Great Lakes later in the week. This will produce a period of moderate east to southeast winds Thursday through Thursday night along with scattered thunderstorms, especially on Lake Erie. A cold front will cross the region Friday, with moderate to strong southwest winds behind the front later Friday becoming west Friday night through Saturday, with an extended period of high end Small Craft Advisory conditions.
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&& .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...Apffel LONG TERM...Apffel AVIATION...TMA MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA

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