-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
099
FXUS61 KBUF 100753
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
253 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Wind Advisory has been issued from Chautauqua county northeastward
across the Niagara Frontier over to the Rochester area...with this
in effect from 8 pm this evening to 1 pm Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-- Changed Discussion --
1) Snowmelt due to mild temperatures and rain will continue to
result in increased runoff through this weekend. Some of the Buffalo
Creeks are at action stage, but are expected to stay below
flood stage. There is a low chance for any river/creek or ice
jam flooding.

2) Another storm system will bring a period of gusty winds late
Saturday night and Sunday...and the potential for a wintry mix for
the Tug Hill Plateau and Saint Lawrence Valley Saturday evening.

3) Several periods, short in duration, of Lake Effect Snow...Sunday
into Sunday night and again on Monday into Monday night.

4) A storm system to bring mixed precipitation along with gusty
winds Tuesday night through Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
KEY MESSAGE 1...Snowmelt due to mild temperatures and rain will
continue to result in increased runoff through this weekend. Some of
the Buffalo Creeks are at action stage, but are expected to
stay below flood stage. There is a low chance for any
river/creek or ice jam flooding.

A second area of low pressure will bring another round of widespread
rain later today into tonight...with additional forecast rainfall
amounts of 0.25-0.50" expected. While these will again not be
particularly significant, the combination of this rainfall...the
rainfall from Friday`s system...and snowmelt due to continued mild
temperatures through today will result in increased runoff.

This has already resulted in elevated streamflow in area rivers and
creeks...with a few of the Buffalo area creeks at action stage.
MMEFS data continues to suggest that this will be about as high as
water levels will get...with very little risk of these reaching
minor flood stage.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another storm system will bring a period of gusty
winds late Saturday night and Sunday, and the potential for a wintry
mix for the Tug Hill Plateau and Saint Lawrence Valley Saturday
evening.

Elongated low pressure draped from the Upper Great Lakes to the Ohio
Valley will lift northeastward today...with an initial primary low
emerging and lifting across the central Great Lakes tonight...while
a secondary coastal low develops and tracks northeastward along the
mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines. In the process...the
primary low will push its trailing cold front across our region this
evening...followed by a reinforcing secondary cold front as it
tracks across southern Ontario and Quebec on Sunday.

Warm advection/isentropic upglide out ahead of this system will
result in a swath of fairly widespread pcpn spreading across the
area from south to north this afternoon and evening...with a mild
enough airmass in place to allow the bulk of this to fall in the
form of just plain rain out ahead of the approaching cold front. The
one exception to this will be across the North Country where thermal
profiles will be more marginal...and will probably allow for some
snow and sleet to mix in across the Tug Hill Plateau and near the
Saint Lawrence River for a time this evening before changing over to
plain rain prior to the cold frontal passage. Cannot completely rule
out a little brief/spotty freezing rain near the Saint Lawrence
River in Jefferson county during this transition...however with such
low areal coverage and relatively low confidence in this occurring
do not feel the need to issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this
time.

In the wake of the cold frontal passage...increasing cold advection
will support effective downward transport of higher momentum air
from aloft down to the surface tonight and Sunday...thereby
resulting in another round of rather windy conditions during this
time frame. The strongest winds look to come in two batches...one
immediately behind the cold front tonight...and then another on
Sunday out ahead of an approaching secondary cold front/upper level
trough axis. Given the placement of the strongest winds aloft over
western New York for much of this time frame...the best potential
for advisory-worthy winds looks to lie across the typical areas ENE
of Lake Erie...extending from from Chautauqua county northeastward
across the Niagara Frontier over to the Rochester area. Within this
region...35-45 knot winds at 925 mb should get mixed down to the
surface fairly readily...and as such a Wind Advisory has been issued
for this area from 8 pm tonight to 1 pm Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Several periods, short in duration, of Lake Effect Snow...Sunday
into Sunday night and lake enhanced snows again on Monday into
Monday night.

Synoptic moisture wrapping around a departing mid level trough,
combined with cold air advection, rising lake inversion heights and
low level wind convergence will bring a return to lake effect snow
Sunday through Sunday night. Initially bands look to start to the
northeast of both Lakes through the day Sunday as temperatures aloft
cool sufficiently behind a secondary trough for band development.
Winds will veer to northwest by Sunday afternoon and evening,
dropping the bands of snow southward to the more traditional
snowbelts south of Buffalo and Watertown. A surface ridge aloft and
at 850 hPa will push across Lake Erie later Sunday night and Monday
morning across Lake Ontario, backing winds and diminishing lake
snows to light snow showers or flurries. Overall accumulations could
push advisory levels east of both lakes.

After a brief lull with the passage of the surface ridge, another
mid level shortwave trough will ripple across the Great Lakes Monday
and Monday night. Within a now warm air advection pattern
widespread, but light snow will be embedded with lake enhanced bands
of snow off both Lakes on a west to southwest wind flow. Given the
pattern snow will likely be minimal east of Lake Erie, though across
the Tug Hill where a slightly colder airmass will reside, additional
snow amounts may push close to advisory levels again.

KEY MESSAGE 4...

A storm system to bring mixed precipitation along with gusty winds
Tuesday night through Thursday.

Forecast models depict another strengthening LLJ of 55 knots over
our region Tuesday night...one that will bring a warmer pattern that
will support rain, but also potential for another round of gusty
winds Tuesday night into Wednesday. Driving this 990 mb low will be
a Pacific shortwave within the northern branch of the jet. Not
looking for a lot of rainfall, with lake enhanced and upslope
terrain effects possibly yielding up to a third of an inch of liquid
before a change over back to snow. Thus hydro concerns will remain
low. Light rain and higher terrain snow Tuesday night into Wednesday
will become all snow Wednesday evening following the passage of a
strong cold front. Models have some disagreement with the depth and
placement of a closed low within an upper level trough to our west
Thursday and into Friday. However, greater certainty in the return
to cold air with good agreement that 850 hPa temperatures will drop
10 or so degrees behind the cold front into Thursday, which could
lead to some lake snows.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through daybreak expect a fair amount of low VFR/high-end MVFR
ceilings to persist across the area...along with some localized IFR
ceilings across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier.

As we move into the daylight hours the lower ceilings will
temporarily diminish in coverage this morning...allowing for a short-
lived period of dry and generally VFR conditions. Flight conditions
will then deteriorate back to the IFR/lower MVFR ranges from south
to north this afternoon and evening as the next low pressure system
pushes northeastward across the Ohio Valley and central Great
Lakes...and spreads thickening/lowering clouds and fairly widespread
rain (along with a little bit of a wintry mix across the North
Country) back across the region.

Tonight the surface low will push its trailing cold front east
across our region during the first half of the night...with strong
drying and subsidence in its wake forcing the pcpn to end from west
to east...with flight conditions also correspondingly improving back
to VFR across the lower elevations and to MVFR across the higher
terrain east of both lakes. It will also turn increasingly windy in
the wake of the cold frontal passage...with southwesterly wind gusts
to 35-40 knots becoming likely along and north of a rough KDKK-KROC
axis...and gusts to 25-35 knots becoming likely further south and
east.

Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR/local IFR in snow showers, especially east of the
lakes. Windy with southwesterly/westerly gusts to 30-40 knots
likely, particularly across western New York.

Monday...Lingering snow showers possible east of the lakes,
otherwise VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, with few rain and higher elevation wet snow
showers (with attendant MVFR/IFR) possible.

Wednesday...MVFR with a mix of rain and snow showers...with IFR
possible with any snow showers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
There will be a brief lull in the winds and waves this morning
before winds increase from the east again out ahead of a second
storm system lifting northeastward from the Ohio Valley and Upper
Great Lakes. This will bring greater wave action to the western Lake
Ontario waters again this afternoon into early this evening...before
another round of more widespread southwesterly to westerly gales
arrives in the wake of cold front tonight and continues through
Sunday.

Looking further out through the first half of next week...elevated
southwesterly to westerly flow looks to continue...with at least
advisory-level conditions persisting across the Lower Lakes the
majority of the time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NY...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday
         for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM
         EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ044-045.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJR/Thomas
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR