232
FXUS61 KBUF 012204
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
604 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the western Great Lakes will ridge into our
region, resulting in mainly dry weather through Friday morning.
A series of fronts will slide across the Great Lakes Friday
night through Sunday bringing the next round of rain showers and
possibly a few rumbles of thunder.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Heading into the early evening hours, only remaining areas of low
stratus and fog are now located over Lake Ontario, with most of that
banked along the northern portion of the Lake near the Canadian
shores. Otherwise, mild temperatures with a mix of sun and clouds
through the remainder of the daylight hours.

Tonight, a shortwave will track across southern Quebec, with a weak
surface low also passing to our north. For most areas this system
will not have enough moisture or lift to produce any precipitation,
except across the St. Lawrence Valley where a showers can`t be ruled
out tonight. Elsewhere, the passage of a weak cold front will only
result in increasing cloud cover but not any precipitation. Weak
high pressure will build back across the region Thursday afternoon
and night, providing more fair weather and mostly clear skies.

Despite the weak cold frontal passage, temperatures will remain
slightly above normal through the period. Highs Thursday will
range from the lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Warm advection develops Friday as the flow turns southerly with
the upper ridge parked over the area and a surface high centers
off the Mid Atlantic coast. There will be increasing mid and
upper cloud cover during the afternoon which may temper high
temperatures a bit, but most readings should get into the 70s
with some lower 80s for normally warmer interior sections of the
Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes.

Deepening moisture and the slow approach of the cold front will
bring increasing chances for showers starting late Friday
across far western New York. However, given the strong mid/upper
ridge over the eastern CONUS ahead of a low which is closing
off and lifting well northwest of the area into Minnesota and
Canada, feel that the cold front may be even slower to enter the
region than models suggest, which could delay precipitation
chances until Friday night.

Fairly good model consensus brings a trough and weak frontal
boundary slowly across the area Saturday into Saturday night.
This is likely to produce showers as it moves through, but
there will be rain-free time between the showers also. Ample
elevated instability to produce some widely scattered
thunderstorms as well. Rainfall amounts will generally be less
than a half inch, although locally higher amounts can`t be ruled
out. The clouds and showers will lead to cooler weather on
Saturday, with highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers continue to start the long term period as a trough and
frontal boundaries associated with a sfc low well to the north track
across the area. Showers will taper off late Sunday afternoon from
west to east with just a few lingering light showers and/or
sprinkles for the eastern half of the area during the evening on
Sunday.

Drier period expected later Sunday night into the first half of
Tuesday as an area of high pressure and ridge builds into the
region.

An occluding low over the north central portion of the CONUS will
stall as its front pushes east toward the region. This will start to
increase shower potential for western and north central NY during
the mid day on Tuesday. Model guidance brings another area of low
pressure north along the frontal boundary, further increasing the
potential for showers and steadier rain across the area. Showers
will then continue through the remainder of the period into at least
the later portion of Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain above normal through at least the middle of
the week, with Sunday being the cooler day of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lingering low stratus and fog has retracted over the northern half
of Lake Ontario. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR flight conditions for
tonight through the first half of Thursday.

The exception is KART where lower CIGS of MVFR or lower are likely
to move in off of Lake Ontario late tonight and into Thursday.
Elsewhere, a weak frontal passage will produce a broken cloud deck,
but cloud bases are expected to remain in the VFR flight category.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible
thunderstorms.
Sunday...Morning showers otherwise mainly VFR weather.
Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak pressure gradients are expected throughout the remainder of the
week into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds
to generally remain below 15 knots. Areas of fog on Lake Ontario
lasting into tonight. While the week will remain quiet, a few
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through
Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/EAJ
NEAR TERM...Apffel/JM
SHORT TERM...Apffel/TMA
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Apffel/JM
MARINE...Apffel/JM