314
FXUS62 KCAE 102314
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
714 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will exit the area this
evening with high pressure along with dry air moving in for the
weekend. The high moves offshore Monday and increasing moisture
supports showers and thunderstorms returning for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
An active afternoon of thunderstorms across the area with
numerous reports of large hail and some damaging winds gusts is
beginning to slowly diminish as heating weakens. Although the
potential for severe thunderstorms has begun to lower there
remains plenty of instability along with current convective
activity which could result in additional severe thunderstorm
warnings being issued. Severe thunderstorm watch 231 remains in
effect for for much of the central Midlands northward through
the Pee Dee until 9 pm.

Late this evening and overnight the remaining convection will
dissipate and move east of the forecast area as the upper level
trough swings through. This will begin allowing cooler and drier
air into the region with mostly clear skies expected overnight.
Although there is plenty of low level moisture to consider
stratus and fog with winds turning northerly overnight and
remaining 5 to 10 mph coupled with drier air moving into the
region do not expect any fog or stratus to develop. The
northerly winds will also be advecting in cooler air and
combined with the clear skies overnight lows will drop into the
low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A much deserved break in the weather is expected this weekend
as troughing, upper level convergence, and surface high pressure
settle into the region. Guidance is in wonderful agreement in
the forecast for Saturday and Sunday. Partly cloudy skies are
expected on Saturday as a reinforcing shortwave dives through
the Mid-Atlantic, with highs in the upper 70s. Lows will be in
the 50s under clear skies Saturday night. Sunday should be a bit
warmer with some downslope flow expected as high pressure
shifts through the area. Highs should be in the 80s with lows in
the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fairly high confidence in the pattern that is expected to unfold
next week. A progressive and meridional pattern is shown by LREF
members by Monday and this should take us through the end of
next week. Slow, lowish amplitude upper level trough is expected
to be centered across the central Plains by Monday morning,
with a ridge axis shifting across our FA through the day.
Surface high pressure should still be in place but is expected
to shift offshore by Monday night, with moisture and isentropic
lift increasing through the day. Rain is likely by Monday night,
with each group of ensembles in the LREF showing ~70-80% of
members with rain chances by Monday night. Surface low should
slowly push eastward on Tuesday, settling over the OH Valley.
Strong westerly and southwesterly flow is shown by both
operational models and LREF members. While operational models
are unsure about convective potential, the overall synoptic
setup is one that tends to favor at least thunderstorms across
the FA. LREF members generally show decent probabilities
(25-40%) of sufficient CAPE and shear to support potential
strong storms. So we`ll need to keep a close eye on model trends
over the next couple of days.

Rain chances look to peak Tuesday evening, with the trough axis
shifting the best lift and surface low to our east on Wednesday.
The break looks short, though, as another shortwave is expected
to dig into the south-central Plains. A ridge axis will likely
settle in over the region by Wed/Thur, with significant
uncertainty regarding the pattern thereafter emerging. The
shortwave trough that digs into the southern plains looks like
it could be significant, but timing and amplitude issues abound
amongst LREF members and operational models. For now, will keep
the NBM as is given the significant uncertainty in the long
term. Temps should be seasonal or slightly below normal in this
period given the repeated shots of rain and potential cloud
coverage. Highs will likely be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with
lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Convection remains around the terminals and will quickly move
east of them by 11/00z. As the convection moves offshore later
tonight winds will turn northerly and begin pushing cooler and
drier air into the area with skies clearing. Ground moisture
remains high however with the winds remaining 5 to 10 knots
overnight and drier air moving into the area do not expect fog
or stratus to develop. Winds during the early morning and
sunrise hours will be light and variable then become
northwesterly around 5 knots from late morning through the end
of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$