005
FXUS62 KCAE 070036
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
836 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the early
this week as multiple disturbances move across the region. A
lull in activity is anticipated for midweek, with increasing
chances of showers and storms towards the end of the week.
Expect generally above average temperatures through the latter
half of the week before transitioning to near or slightly below
average next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The mid-upper level trough responsible for driving some
scattered-widespread convection is shifting across the TN
Valley and we have generally stabilized across the Midlands and
CSRA behind these showers-storms for the time being. Based on
the current satellite obs and hi-res guidance however, abundant
moisture, still relatively steep lapse rates, and forcing from
the mid-upper level trough will continue drive showers-storms as
weak destabilization and conditional unstable profiles aloft;
the HRRR has been in consistent agreement run to run in
widespread shower-storm activity overnight between 06-12z,
mainly remaining in the Midlands and Upstate. Low level lapse
rates will become isothermal however and should generally
prevent surface based convection, therefore greatly reducing
severe threat. But forcing from the upper trough and potentially
strong cold pool development could help anchor a few storms to
the surface layer still. So PoPs remain fairly high overnight,
with some likely elevated thunderstorms but the severe threat
will lessen somewhat. Heavy rain and flooding looks to be the
primary threat, especially in areas that saw heavy earlier, as
PWAT`s remain high (around 1.5-1.75").

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday and Tuesday night: A shortwave trough is forecast to continue
progressing eastward and out of the forecast area in the morning
hours. There could be a lingering shower or thunderstorm in the Pee
Dee early on in the day, but should be quick to exit the region if
there are any showers. Behind the shortwave, relatively flat ridging
moves over the region, allowing temperatures to rise to above
average for this time of year. A weak shortwave is forecast to move
through the broader ridge during the afternoon, mainly to the north
of the forecast area. With moisture expected to remain relatively
high through the day (PWATs around 1.5"), a few showers or
thunderstorms could develop, mainly for the northern portions of the
forecast area. Other areas should remain dry for the day. Overnight
lows should remain above average as well.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Another warm day is expected on
Wednesday as the broad ridge remains over the region. However, a
larger scale upper trough is forecast to begin moving toward the
Southeast from the Upper Midwest. Another shortwave is forecast to
slide through the area in between the ridge and trough, which could
spark more showers and thunderstorms. A majority of the energy from
this shortwave looks to stay north of the area, but some guidance
extends the energy into our forecast area. Forecast soundings from
multiple models do support the potential for strong thunderstorms,
mainly north of I-20. The soundings near Columbia indicate a bit of
a warm nose around 700 mb, which should hinder convection. As you go
north toward the Charlotte area, this warm nose becomes less
pronounced, which is why PoPs are a little higher there and the
potential for stronger storms is greater there as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday and Thursday night: The larger scale trough continues to
move eastward while a developing surface low and associated cold
front move towards the area on Thursday. Another shortwave is
forecast to move through the region, allowing for more convective
activity in the afternoon and evening hours. With the larger scale
trough approaching, temperatures aloft begin to cool, which would
lead to eroding that aforementioned warm nose around 700 mb. This
would lead to a higher chance for severe weather. Confidence has
increased a bit in this scenario as the various model guidance has
come into better agreement. That said there still remains some
timing and strength differences, which would affect the overall
severe weather potential for the region.

Friday through Monday: Another round of storms looks possible
Friday morning as some guidance indicates an MCS moving through the
Deep South will make its way into the Southeast during the morning
hours. There remains plenty of uncertainty with this scenario, so
confidence is on the lower side as of now (~20%). After that and a
cold front pass, more tranquil weather is forecast for the weekend
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the evening hours then
possible restrictions in early morning convection and stratus
around 12z.

Afternoon convection has generally shifted away from the
terminals and do not expect any issues this evening with
convection. Some lingering mid level clouds through 02z-03z then
some clearing expected overnight. Abundant low level moisture
remains in place and some radiational cooling likely will result
in some vsby restrictions at fog prone AGS, less confident other
terminals. Hi-res guidance suggesting a line of convection
moving southeastward through the Midlands along and north of
I-26 during the 09z-14z time frame so included a tempo group for
TSRA and cig/vsby restrictions. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
with light southerly winds overnight picking up from the
southwest by 15z to around 8 to 10 knots with some afternoon
gusts approaching 20 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Morning fog/stratus less likely on
Wednesday with drier air over the region. The extended will be
active, with mainly diurnal convection each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$