Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
656 FXUS62 KCAE 142353 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 753 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper ridge will begin to break down, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain chances during the mid week period. A new upper ridge should then build in from the east to end the week with slowly warming temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Isolated to scattered storms into the evening. - Muggy conditions overnight. Scattered showers and storms will begin to dissipate after sunset this evening across the area with the loss of heating. Lingering moisture overnight will lead to another somewhat muggy night across the area. In addition, some patchy fog and low stratus development will be possible late tonight and towards morning. Overnight lows mainly ranging between 71-75 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Not as warm due to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Tuesday: A weakening trough will be approaching Florida with dry air located on the northwest flank. PWATs drop to less than 1.5", with 2"+ PWATs on either side. Surface convergence from Monday will have moved further inland over GA on Tuesday. The lower PWAT air will likely limit convection slightly, but the overall extent of coverage should still be at least chance. High temperatures will also be lower on Tuesday as 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses fall to 1415 m (or about 10 m cooler than Monday) due to the upper trough. Wednesday - Thursday: Another trough will break off and approach the region Wednesday allowing thunderstorms to continue both days. Storm motions Wednesday are forecast to be around 10 kt, but increase to near 20 kt by Thursday as the trough moves overhead and elongates the wind field slightly. This means the greatest chance for locally heavy rainfall will be on Wednesday, with slightly lower chances on Thursday due to increased storm motion. High temperatures will be near climo or in the lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key message(s): - Temperatures warming into the weekend. The trough that was near the area on Thursday will cross Florida Saturday keeping afternoon thunderstorm chances in the forecast through the weekend. High temperatures will also remain near climo/ slightly above climo as low level thicknesses slowly recover. Max heat index values each afternoon will be near or just below advisory criteria (108 F). && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions outside of showers/storms this evening and early tonight. Restrictions to both visibility and ceiling possible towards sunrise Tuesday. Isolated showers and storms will continue through sunset this evening, with greatest coverage along the CSRA taf sites along the Savannah River. Brief restrictions in showers/storms possible through 01z, then most activity should begin dissipating with the loss of heating. Overnight hours should be mostly dry. VFR conditions should occur through the early portions of the overnight hours, but with plenty of low- level moisture around, guidance is showing increasing probabilities of seeing some low stratus and br development towards sunrise Tuesday morning. Have trended that direction, with ceilings developing and dropping below 1kft around 10z, lasting through 13z before beginning to break and lift back to vfr by late morning. Winds mostly light and variable to calm overnight, then increasing to between 5-10 knots out of the east/southeast through the day Tuesday. As for convection on Tuesday, coverage expected to be very similar to the past few days during the afternoon and evening hours once again. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions possible in the extended with daily convection and patchy early morning fog/stratus possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$