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000
FXUS64 KEWX 260730
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
230 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

-Isolated strong to severe storms possible today and Saturday with
all hazards possible.

An upper level trough currently over the Central Plains lifts into
the Northern Plains today allowing the dryline to mix east into Val
Verde County this morning and the Edwards Plateau this afternoon. A
few showers and thunderstorms are noted along the dryline over West
Central Texas early this morning. They will move to the east over
the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country to along and east of the I-35
corridor this morning into afternoon ahead of the dryline. Forecast
soundings indicate a potential for isolated strong to severe storms
with all hazards possible. However, the capping inversion may be a
limiting factor. The dryline shifts back to the west tonight with
little or no showers expected. Another upper level trough approaches
from the west on Saturday allowing the dryline to mix east again,
although only to the lower Pecos Valley of Val Verde County to along
the Rio Grande Valley. Daytime heating and forcing by the dryline
will generate isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Hill
Country to portions of the I-35 corridor north of San Antonio.
Similar to today, there is a potential for isolated strong to severe
storms with all hazards possible. The more consequential threat for
severe storms will come just beyond the short term. High
temperatures will be at seasonal levels east of the dryline and well
above normal west of the dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions
are expected west of the dryline each day as humidities fall into
the upper single digits and teens along with winds of 10 to 15 mph
and gusty.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The extended forecast looks to be quite active as several systems
move through the Southern Plains allowing for increased shower and
thunderstorm chances across the area. The first system will be
moving into Central Texas Saturday evening and will spark off
showers and thunderstorms initially in our northwestern CWA after 10
PM Saturday. This activity is expected to grow upscale and bring
with it a decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Ahead of the rain chances southerly winds look to be
quite breezy with speeds of 20-25 mph near advisory criteria. Will
have to monitor trends there for any possible needs of a Wind
Advisory. As the storms develop and move downstream, the environment
will be one of CAPE values near 1500-2000 J/kg and adequate shear
will allow for the chance for some strong to severe storms. With
this threat of severe storms, most of the CWA is under at least a
marginal risk of severe storms with portions of the Hill Country and
the Edwards Plateau under a slight risk in the latest Day 2 outlook
from SPC. This activity is expected to push eastward into the I35
corridor and eastern counties Sunday morning before beginning to
exit the area Sunday afternoon. Instability and shear amounts remain
elevated and will likely continue to see at least a low end threat
for additional strong to severe storms. The latest Day 3 outlook....

The next disturbance, while weaker, will allow for additional
showers and storms on Monday and will show 20-50 PoPs across the
area. While deterministic models don`t show anything too concerning
with respect to rainfall amounts, a few of the ECMWF ensemble
members show some threat for locally heavy rainfall. An additional
weak disturbance and some possible warm-air advection will lead to a
20-30 percent chance of showers and storms on Tuesday. With the lack
of deep forcing and subsequent weaker winds aloft think the chances
for strong to severe storms Monday and Tuesday will be smaller, but
given adequate instability amounts can`t rule out an isolated storm
or two.

A stronger system is expected on Wednesday with both the GFS and
ECMWF showing a large area of decent QPF across our western counties
Wednesday afternoon spreading eastward Wednesday night. Instability
amounts are not as high and drop off to the east, but some strong to
severe storms with the initial development closer to the Rio Grande
can`t be ruled out.

The GFS and ECMWF then sends a cold front into the area Thursday
night into Friday which would bring widespread rainfall and some
threat of heavy rainfall. This is somewhat supported in the ensemble
guidance as well, so we will have to watch this possibility closely
over the next several days for some appreciable rainfall.

Temperatures in the extended will mostly see highs in the 80s to
near 90 degrees with the higher values out west. Lows will be
primarily in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

MVFR CIGs are expected overnight, then lower to IFR early Friday
morning as SHRA/TSRA develop. CIGs rise to VFR by midday while
SHRA/TSRA continue into mid afternoon. Breezy S-SE winds prevail with
a few gusts to 30 KTs possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  71  85  70 /  60  10  20  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  82  71  85  69 /  50  10  10  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     84  71  86  71 /  50  10  10  40
Burnet Muni Airport            80  69  81  65 /  60  10  20  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  74  98  69 /   0   0  10  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  71  84  68 /  60  20  20  50
Hondo Muni Airport             87  71  90  68 /  20   0  10  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        83  70  85  70 /  50  10  10  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   82  73  85  73 /  30  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       84  71  86  70 /  40  10  10  50
Stinson Muni Airport           86  72  87  72 /  40   0  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...29
Aviation...04