629
FXUS63 KLBF 091721
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1221 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and Isolated thunderstorms are expected
  today, mainly across northern/western Nebraska and the
  Sandhills.

- Dry conditions are expected Friday and Saturday.
  Shower/thunder chances return Sunday into next week.

- Warmer (above normal) temperatures are expected this weekend
  into the first of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A weakening area of upper level low pressure is drifting southward
into Nebraska this morning. Cumulus clouds will rapidly form this
morning as the boundary layer warms beneath cold air aloft (-2C at
H7). Isolated to scattered showers will develop...and there is a
small amount of CAPE present by midday continuing through this
afternoon. Will continue the mention of isolated thunder this
afternoon. Flow aloft is quite weak so any storm will likely be
short lived. Otherwise a cool day is expected, especially across
western/northwest Nebraska where more cloud cover will limit highs
to the upper 50s.

The upper low essentially splits by Friday. Part of the energy
drifts southwest and becomes cutoff across the southwest U.S., with
the rest of the energy being absorbed into a fast southeastward
moving shortwave diving across the Great Lakes Region. The
shortwave across the Great Lakes will drive a weak Pacific cold
front southeast through the area. Actually, it won`t be colder
behind this front Friday as we will loose the cloud cover. Highs
should range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

The southwest U.S. upper low begins to drift into Colorado Saturday.
Subtle upper level ridging develops across the southern into the
central plains ahead of this feature. Temperatures will warm to
above average as a result, with mid 70s common area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Upper level low pressure pushes through Colorado toward western
Kansas Sunday. Some moisture return occurs Saturday night into
Sunday with surface dew points rising into the lower 50s. Conditions
become somewhat unstable by Sunday afternoon and should see a few
scattered showers/thunderstorms develop across the area. The better
chances are across southern/southwest Nebraska in closer proximity
to the upper low. Flow aloft is weak and severe weather looks
unlikely with this system. The upper low tracks across Kansas Monday
with continued precipitation chances, especially across southern
portions of the area. Tuesday the upper low drifts east of the area
while a shortwave dives southeast across the northern plains. A cold
front associated with this could bring a round of convection to the
area Tuesday evening.

Above average temperatures are expected Sunday through Tuesday with
highs well into the 70s. Wednesday will cool back to near normal
behind the cold front with highs mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into this
evening, with periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible
through sunset. After sunset, precipitation should quickly wane,
with low clouds exiting the area. VFR conditions are then
expected to prevail through tonight into tomorrow afternoon.
Winds remain gusty this afternoon from the north, before
weakening and transitioning northwesterly tonight. Additional
gusts from the northwest can be anticipated tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown