Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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657
FXUS66 KLOX 070533
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1033 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...06/234 PM.

Dry conditions, warming temperatures, and areas of breezy north
to northwest winds are expected this week into the weekend. Low
clouds and perhaps patchy fog could return to coastal areas by the
end of this week and the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...06/1028 PM.

***UPDATE***

Sunny, clear skies today allowed highs to warm to the upper 70s
to low 80s for valleys and deserts, and mid to upper 60s for
coastal areas. Tonight, expect winds to strengthen for the Santa
Barbara southwest coast, the northern Ventura County mountains,
and I-5 Corridor. For these areas wind gusts will peak at around
35 to 45 mph. Winds should subside to below advisory levels early
tomorrow morning for Santa Barbara, and mid-morning for the other
areas.

A general warming trend will continue tomorrow, as a ridge builds
over the region. Mostly clear skies are expected to continue, and
temperatures will be 1 to 4 degrees warmer than today. Winds will
develop again tomorrow evening, with additional advisories issued
to include the entire Santa Ynez range and Santa Barbara south
coast, interior Santa Barbara County mountains, Ventura County
Mountains, I-5 Cooridor, Santa Clarita Valley, and the western
Antelope Valley foothills. Wind gusts will peak up to 40 to 55 mph
for these areas during the evening.


***From Previous Discussion***

Broadly cyclonic flow aloft over much of the CONUS will be
reinforced this week by multiple disturbances pivoting around deep
low pressure across the central states. Southwest California will
be along the southwest periphery of the cyclonic flow, where the
influence of high-amplitude ridging off the Pacific Coast will be
experienced through this week. This will translate to a warming
trend throughout the week, with high temperatures reaching the
mid 70s to lower 80s in most areas by Thursday. Light to moderate
offshore flow, facilitated by modest offshore pressure gradients,
will further enhance the warming trend. These gradients will be
sufficiently tight to foster Wind Advisory level gusts in a
Sundowner regime across southern Santa Barbara County, and also
over the I-5 Corridor and surrounding mountains and foothills --
at times through Tuesday night. Otherwise, dry conditions are
expected areawide through mid-week.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...06/234 PM.

An upper low is forecast to cut off in the western portion of the
aforementioned broadly cyclonic flow aloft, meandering along a
highly uncertain track over the southwest states through the
upcoming weekend and early next week. Model solutions vary
significantly regarding the trajectory of this system, resulting
in uncertainty regarding sensible weather elements across the
forecast area.

If the upper low stays farther east across the Four Corners
region and southern Rockies, leaving upper ridging over the
forecast area, then considerably warmer temperatures well into
the 80s will occur in many areas by this weekend and completely
dry weather would occur. This general outcome appears most
probable (50% chance of occurrence). Farther-west tracks of the
upper low close to southern California would correspond to cooler
temperatures and perhaps non-zero precipitation chances -- though
this general solution appears unlikely (10% chance of occurrence).
Upper low tracks in between these two regimes would correspond to
dry conditions and temperatures closer to normal. Patchy low
clouds and fog could return farther inland by this weekend, with
additional rounds of local gusty winds, depending on the track of
the upper low.

&&

.AVIATION...07/0531Z.

At 0008Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of
the weak inversion was 2400 ft with a temperature of 16 C.

Moderate confidence for KPRB, KLAX and KLGB where there is a
20-30 percent chance of low MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys between 09-17Z.
High confidence in remaining sites with VFR conditions expected.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of low
MVFR to IFR cigs from 11Z-17Z. There is a 30% chance of an E wind
component 09Z-15Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF with VFR conds expected.

&&

.MARINE...06/1031 PM.

In the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
In the southern two zones (PZZ673/676), strong NW winds with gusts
to gale force will continue thru late tonight. Gale force winds
are likely again Tue afternoon into Tue night (70% chance). Gale
Warning has been extended thru Tuesday night for this area.
Otherwise, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas are
expected thru late Wed night. In the northern zone (PZZ670), SCA
conditions are likely thru Wed night. There is a 50-60% chance of
gale force winds Tue afternoon into Tue night. SCA conds are not
expected in the outer waters Thu thru Fri.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in
the forecast. Thru Wed night, winds are expected to reach SCA
levels during the afternoon/eve hours. Seas may remain at or above
SCA levels tonight thru Wed morning even after the winds decrease.
SCA cond are not expected Thu thru Fri.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate confidence in the
forecast. Expect SCA level winds across much of the SBA Channel
during the late afternoon thru late night hours today and Tue
(60-70% chance), with slightly stronger winds Tue. There is a 30%
chance of gales across western portions of the channel late Tue
afternoon into Tue night. In the southern inner waters, there is a
40% chance of SCA level winds across NW portions from Anacapa
Island to Malibu in the late afternoon/eve hours today and Tue.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 7 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 88-350-352-353-376-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 4 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
      377-378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect from 4 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late
      Tuesday night for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cohen/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Phillips/Munroe
MARINE...Phillips/RM
SYNOPSIS...Cohen

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox