Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 201905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201904
FLZ000-202100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0852
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Areas affected...South Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 201904Z - 202100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and damaging winds are possible
with isolated strong/severe storms this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus have become more vertically developed along a
remnant surface boundary north of Lake Okeechobee. Other cumulus
agitation is occurring in south-central Florida where outflow from
convection in the Florida Keys/Straits has enhanced convergence.
Storm initiation is most likely along the sea/lake breeze boundaries
as well as the northward moving outflow and seems possible within
the next 1-2 hours. Storm coverage should remain isolated given weak
forcing aloft. Storm intensity should also be muted compared to
yesterday given warmer mid-level temperatures (around -8 C per 12Z
observed MFL sounding). Isolated marginally severe hail and damaging
winds are the primary hazards with the strongest storms this
afternoon.
..Wendt/Hart.. 05/20/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 27057975 26407974 25567991 25638030 25768077 26028108
26398132 27138122 27348114 27488113 27728103 27728075
27598036 27568008 27257979 27057975