947
AWUS01 KWNH 130006
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130605-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0663
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Central and Eastern OK...Western
AR...Far Southeast KS...Southwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 130005Z - 130605Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will maintain a likelihood for seeing at least scattered areas of
additional flash flooding going into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
dual-pol radar continues to show a broken and elongated axis of
heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of northeast TX
through central and eastern OK and into adjacent areas of
southeast KS and southwest MO. The convection continues to focus
out ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough and embedded vort
center stretching from southern KS down through western OK, with
multiple surface lows and an attendant frontal boundary situated
across the region as well.

There remains a substantial amount of late-day instability across
portions of the Red River Valley of the South and stretching
northeastward up into portions of the Ozarks including much of
eastern OK, western AR and far northeast TX. MLCAPE values of 2000
to 3000 J/kg suggest strong instability, and the environment is
quite moist with PWs of 1.75 to 2+ inches. CIRA-ALPW data suggests
notably strong deep layer moisture content in close proximity to
the vort center across far southern KS down through central OK
where there has been very heavy rainfall noted over the last
several hours.

This mid-level shortwave energy and associated vort center will
drift off to the east going into the overnight hours and this will
foster very slow movement of the associated surface low along the
front. Meanwhile, some gradual nocturnal strengthening of a
southerly low-level jet is expected across northeast TX, eastern
OK and western AR with the nose of this aiming into southwest MO.

Low-level warm air advection and speed convergence coupled with
modest shortwave-induced DPVA/forcing should promote a localized
persistence and eventually a renewed expansion of convection
across areas of eastern OK through western AR. Some back-building
convective signals will be in place which may allow for northeast
TX to get into a threat for more focused slow-moving thunderstorm
activity which is suggested by the Corfidi vectors.

Rainfall rates will be high and capable of reaching 2 to 3
inches/hour with the stronger storms and especially as the
low-level jet strengthens overnight. Some localized additional
rainfall totals going through 06Z (1AM CDT) may reach 3 to 5
inches given weak steering flow and slow cell-motions.

Additional areas of flash flooding are likely overnight given the
generally moist antecedent conditions and high rainfall rate
potential.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...FWD...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38079390 37839234 36819164 35829219 34579318
            33079401 32449517 32669675 33469736 34559714
            35799614 36619566 37759541