Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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364 FXUS63 KSGF 101639 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1139 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will be slightly below normal today and then around normal on Saturday. Drier conditions will continue across the area today and Saturday. - Potential for showers and thunderstorms return to the region at times from Sunday into Thursday with the best chances expected late Sunday night and Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 An upper level trough is currently moving south across northern Missouri and will continue to move southeast through the region this morning. A drier air mass is in place so not expecting any rain with the passage of the trough. Clouds will increase across portions of central Missouri early this morning with the trough but should scattered out by this afternoon as the trough moves off to the southeast. The trough will bring a slightly cooler air mass to the area as highs warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s this afternoon. North to northwesterly winds will continue to occur across the area today, with gusts up to 15 to 20 mph possible at times this afternoon. Lows tonight into Saturday morning will drop into the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Another upper level trough will move into the Great Lakes region on Saturday keeping the area in an upper level northwest flow pattern. Northwesterly surface winds will continue to occur across the area on Saturday with gusts up to around 15 mph at times. Highs on Saturday will warm into the middle to upper 70s. Lows Saturday night into Sunday morning will be in the upper 40s to the middle 50s with the coolest readings occurring across the eastern Ozarks. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 An upper level ridge will build east towards the region on Sunday. A warm front will lift through the area and southerly winds will return to the area on Sunday. Highs will warm into the middle 70s to near the 80 degree mark Sunday afternoon. Some scattered showers and storms will be possible across portions of the area on Sunday afternoon and evening as the warm front moves northeast through the region and some weak elevated uncapped instability develops. Overall coverage should be limited though as a drier air mass will remain in place in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, not all locations are expected to be affected by this activity Sunday afternoon and evening. An upper level low will slowly move east across the region Sunday night into early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop across portions of the area late Sunday night and continue across the area Monday into Monday night as the trough moves through the area. The ensemble model members do differ slightly on how fast the upper level trough moves east through the region, with some members being slower keeping some scattered shower and storm chances across the area into Tuesday. Instability is currently expected to be on the weaker side so not expecting widespread organized convection at this time. An upper level ridge will move east over the region on Wednesday. A warm front will lift north through the area and with the potential for some scattered shower and storm chances on Wednesday. An upper level trough will then move east through the region late next week. There are some timing differences between the ensemble model members but additional shower and storm chances will occur Thursday into Friday as the trough and a front move east through the region but exactly which period will depend on the timing of the front. Still not seeing a signal for widespread hazardous weather across the area through the extended period of the forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Gusty northerly winds of 20-30 kt are forecast to continue through the afternoon before weakening and turning west-southwesterly after sunset. Winds shift back to the northwest after 12Z. A stratus deck across eastern Missouri continues to lift at the start of the TAF period. Otherwise, mostly clear skies can be expected. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Didio