Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
224 FXUS64 KSJT 080833 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 333 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast across West Central Texas today. Stratus across the southern half of the area will quickly dissipate by mid to late morning, with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Surface moisture has quickly increased across the area early this morning, but expect the dryline to quickly sweep east across the region today, with much drier air filtering in across the area. Highs across the Big Country will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with mid to upper 90s across the rest of the area. A few locations could approach the upper 90s. Expect overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...Active weather possible through the weekend... By Thursday afternoon, a cold front is expected to have moved well south into our forecast area, while a dryline tightens up along or just inside our western border. Aloft, a shortwave is expected to move over the area in southwest flow. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop by late afternoon along and east of the dryline, which is expected to stretch roughly from the northern Concho Valley area southeast into the Northwest Hill Country. With surface based CAPE values potentially over 3000 J/kg, and 0-6 km shear values over 50 knots, any storms that do develop will quickly strengthen to severe levels, with large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes possible. Highs Thursday will depend greatly on the speed of the cold front, but generally looking at highs near 80 north of I-20, and as warm as the upper 90s from the Concho Valley into the I-10 corridor. For Friday, should see a short lull in precipitation behind the cold front and without any prominent upper level support. Highs should be in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. By Saturday, the medium range models begin to diverge in their solution, so confidence in the forecast is diminished. However, there is some agreement that another shortwave will move through the area Saturday into Saturday night, interacting the remnants of the surface front, and bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Temperatures should also continue to be cooler if this precipitation and additional cloud cover occurs, with highs mainly in the 70s. Expect precipitation to move out of the area during the day Monday, or possibly sooner. A warming trend will also commence Monday through the middle of next week, with highs back in the 80s to near the lower 90s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Stratus will develop at the southern 3 counties between 08Z and 09Z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Expect a return of VFR conditions by mid morning. West to southwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots by mid morning, then decrease below 12 knots late this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 91 60 82 58 / 0 0 10 0 San Angelo 97 62 95 61 / 0 0 10 0 Junction 98 65 96 63 / 0 0 20 0 Brownwood 93 63 83 60 / 0 0 30 10 Sweetwater 90 61 81 58 / 0 0 10 0 Ozona 95 64 93 61 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 93 64 87 62 / 0 0 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...Daniels