Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 261043
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
643 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore through the weekend as a trough
of low pressure and several weak disturbances move over the
region into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EDT Saturday...

Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure off the Carolina coast
with a cold front across the Midwest. Aloft, there is weak SW
flow over the Mid Atlc with a weak ridge off the Southeast
coast. Not much in the way of forcing during the daytime, but
there will be an increase in moisture profiles in conjunction
with weak shortwave energy passing over NW areas where PoPs
remain at 60%. SE areas have a lower chance for shras/tstms
(slight chance-chance PoPs). Main threat with any tstms will be
heavy rain due to fairly weak steering flow and aforementioned
moisture/PW increase...included locally heavy rainfall wording
over N/NW areas. High temps in the mid/upr 80s. Shras/tstms may
last through the evening hrs (especially over northern areas)
before slowly diminishing overnight. Low temps mainly in the lwr
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...

Weak upper ridging aloft and southerly low-level flow will be
our predominate weather pattern through Memorial Day. This will
result in a continued increase in humidity locally Sunday, due
to sustained southerly flow from the GOMEX, and a mainly
diurnal chance of showers and thunderstorms. By Monday there
are indications that a little deeper feed of sub-tropical
moisture will make a run at central/eastern NC and perhaps far
southern portions of VA. While locally heavy rain will be
possible with the strongest tstms Sun (PWs 1.75-2.00"), the best
opportunity for widespread moderate/heavy downpours and
potential flooding should hold off until Monday for the
aforementioned areas as a more pronounced area of sub-tropical
moisture (PWs increasing to 2.0-2.3") arrives. As far as PoPs
go, will highest PoPs oriented over NW areas. Likely PoPs (60%)
along/north of a line from FVX-FYJ-WAL, lowering to slight chc
(20%) over extreme SE VA/NE NC. By Monday, will generally have
chc PoPs everywhere (30-50%), but likely PoPs (55-65%)
along/south of VA Hwy 58.

Temps will remain warm Sun with highs generally in the mid/upr
80s, except upr 70s to low 80s immediate coast. A bit cooler
Monday with increased cloud cover and pcpn chances. Highs in the
upr 70s to low 80s. Lows remaining in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

This period to be governed by the moisture and remnant low track of
Sub-tropical Storm Alberto. After stalling across the Gulf States
Mon, the system is progged to drift slowly ne into the TN valley
Tue/Wed with the remnant low pushing ne along or just east of the
Applach mts Thu/Fri.

Kept low chc pops (20-40%) across the region Mon nite thru Tues nite
then increased to high chc pops (40-50%) Wed thru Fri. Highs Tues
mid-upr 80s, low-mid 80s Wed/Thu/Fri. Lows mid 60s-lwr 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR to start off the 12Z period. Light S/SW winds this morning
will increase and become a bit gusty by midday, but gusts should
remain no higher than 15-20 kt. Patchy fog is possible at
KPHF/KECG early this morning, but confidence is low so kept out
of TAFs. Sct-Bkn Cu today expected to be around 3-5k ft, with
some lowering cigs later in the day as rain chances increase
over western areas. Included VCSH for RIC/SBY where the best
chance for shras/tstms is, late this aftn/evening.

OUTLOOK...Expect moisture to increase through the holiday
weekend with scattered showers/t-storms possible each
afternoon/evening through Mon. Periodic flight restrictions will
be possible in/around tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 AM EDT Saturday...

No headlines through the weekend/Mon as SSW winds around the
Bermuda hi pres avg aob 15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft with 1-2 ft waves.
Winds become SE by mid week in advance of any remnant low from
Alberto...then SW behind the lows departure. Conditions to
remain blo SCA levels.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...

* RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/25 is 10.25" which now
  ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record
  of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880).

* SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/25 is 8.63" which
  already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38"
  in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...ALB/MPR
CLIMATE...



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