Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 190226

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
826 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018


Snow continues across the far east this evening as a disturbance
affects the Dakotas and far eastern Montana. Snowfall reports have
ranged from 2 to 4 inches so far across portions of Fallon and
Carter counties. Snow is expected to continue overnight, gradually
diminishing from west to east by morning. Snowfall totals will
range from 2 to 5 inches, with the highest totals found near the
Dakota borders. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory already
in affect for these areas. Elsewhere, a few snow showers can be
expected across the western mountains, with perhaps a few showers
making out onto the lower elevations. Have updated pops, sky
cover, winds, and snowfall amounts to current trends. The
previous forecast discussion and an updated aviation discussion
are below. STP


.SHORT TERM...valid for Mon and Tue...

A broad upper trough extending from the Northern Rockies all the
way to Arizona. The strongest piece of energy is moving through
the bottom of the trof in the southern Rockies and will not impact
us. That said, we do have a good slug of moisture, combining with an
area of mid level frontogenesis, and supported a jet streak aloft,
that is beginning to impact our easternmost zones. Snow Advisory
is in place for area along the Montana/Dakota border. Precip
is expected to shut down after the trof axis passes on Monday

Another shortwave will cross the region Monday night, bringing
another shot of ISOLD/SCTD precip. This feature continues to look
quite weak, with limited moisture. Overall impacts should be
pretty minor.

Temps will remain below seasonal averages thanks to all the cloud
cover and prevailing cyclonic flow, but will generally trend
upward through the period. AAG

.LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...

The extended has a little more consistency, at least through
Friday. Wednesday and Thursday the ridge will continue across the
Northern Rockies which will keep temperature warming. With the
main ridge axis more across central Montana and drifting towards
the central zones, the mountains will still be in some
southwesterly flow. This will keep at least a chance for some snow
showers in the the Beartooth/Absarokas. Late Thursday into Friday
the ridge will begin to give way to a trough off the PacNW. This
will result in increased shower activity. Models start to show
some differences with the precip, as the ECMWF is not quiet as
widespread with the precip as the GFS. Given the bit better
consistency have cleaned the PoPs up some.

Going into next weekend the models continue to have very little
consistency. In general energy continues to move into the area as
the trough moves inland. However, the models are not much
different with the general pattern, just the timing is out of
phase. This leads to the timeframe for precip being uncertain.
Have in general kept the chance PoPs going. Reimer



Expect MVFR to IFR conditions overnight with the lowest conditions
E of KBIL. There will be areas of obscuration over the
Beartooths/Absarokas, with localized obscuration over the Crazys
and NE Bighorns. Conditions should improve to VFR over the area by
late Monday morning. There will be localized to areas of
obscuration over the mountains Mon. morning that will increase to
widespread obscurations over the Beartooths/Absarokas Mon.
afternoon. Arthur



    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
BIL 023/041 026/046 027/050 031/051 032/047 028/045 025/042
    11/B    21/U    11/B    12/W    23/W    23/W    32/W
LVM 024/044 026/049 027/053 032/056 032/049 027/045 024/043
    23/R    31/B    12/W    23/W    43/W    23/W    33/W
HDN 022/043 022/048 023/050 026/051 028/048 024/045 020/042
    11/B    11/U    01/B    12/W    33/W    23/W    33/W
MLS 024/034 022/038 020/042 024/042 028/041 023/040 021/038
    21/E    21/B    00/U    11/B    33/J    13/W    33/W
4BQ 022/036 019/043 021/048 025/048 030/047 024/044 020/040
    42/S    21/B    01/U    11/B    33/W    33/W    34/W
BHK 023/032 019/036 017/040 023/041 027/040 023/039 018/036
    94/S    22/J    00/U    11/B    44/J    23/W    34/J
SHR 021/040 022/046 022/050 027/055 033/050 026/046 022/042
    11/B    21/B    11/B    11/B    33/W    23/W    33/W


MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 9 AM MDT Monday FOR
      ZONES 33-37.


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