Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 251123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 329 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

This morning: Storms have redeveloped along the MO/KS border within
the last hour or so. This is due to the upper level shortwave trough
moving overhead, in conjunction with a strengthening the LLJ and
some enhanced surface convergence. This activity is expected to
expand spatially, mainly staying along and east of I-35. This
cluster should stay sub-severe and will move east with time. In
addition, there is an outflow boundary approaching our western
border, which should be the focus for additional development this
morning. Again, anything that develops should be sub-severe and move
east throughout the morning hours. Finally, there is an additional
line of storms approaching our area this morning from central KS.
This line will continue moving southeast, with some of this activity
potentially reaching our far southwestern border. However, models
suggest it will weaken shortly after sunrise as the LLJ weakens,
so any activity from this line that moves into our area should be
short-lived.

This afternoon and evening: Despite activity in the morning,
signs point to the atmosphere being able to destabilize this
afternoon, with SBCAPE projected to top out around 2000-2500
J/kg. The moderate instability, dew points in the upper 60s to low
70s, an approaching cold front (albeit weak), and the upper level
shortwave trough will keep storm chances throughout the afternoon
and evening, mainly along and east of I-35. Shear profiles remain
on the low side, so right now there seems to only be a risk for a
strong wind gusts or two and small hail. Storms should be
isolated to scattered in nature and are expected to diminish
during the overnight hours.

Saturday-Monday: The cold front should stall to our north, keeping
us in southwesterly to southerly flow at the surface. This along
with upper level ridging moving overhead, will help keep us dry
and allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 90s for the
holiday weekend, with Sunday being the warmest day. Heat indices
are forecast to reach the upper 90s, so make sure to stay hydrated
and take breaks from the sun, especially those who are more
susceptible to heat exhaustion.

Tuesday-Friday: The closed upper level low, currently off the
CA coast, should make its way to the Midwest mid-week next week,
bringing on and off storm chances for the forecast area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2018

This mornings convection is finally starting to move out of the KC
Metro. Vicinity storms will remain possible for the next hour or
two but the cluster should continue moving east and weakening with
time as the LLJ weakens. The lower ceilings and visibilities
should also exit with the system. VFR conditions are expected for
the remainder of the TAF period. Isolated to scattered storms are
possible this afternoon and evening, but the short-term hi res models
keep the terminals clear. Will need to continue monitoring and
make updates as needed. Winds should remain generally out of the
southwest and light.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Grana


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