Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 212319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
719 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018


The Aviation section has been updated below.


Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Snow will continue to taper off this afternoon as yesterday`s upper
low pushes farther east.  High pressure will then strengthen over
the area, resulting in a lull in activity until Friday.  The only
caveat will be low chances for a few rain and snow showers across
the far southwest counties on Thursday night.  Focus then turns to
the next system progged for Friday and Saturday, which has the
potential to produce accumulating snowfall.  However, any slight
shift in the track of this system will have huge impacts on
precipitation types and amounts.  After that, high pressure will
bring dry conditions on Sunday before rain chances and temperatures
increase ahead of a warm front late in the extended period.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Snow has ended across central Indiana, and rapid clearing will
ensue as high pressure strengthens over the area. The clear skies
will be conducive to below normal temperatures tonight with
readings generally in the low to mid 20s. This is a high
confidence forecast, and no changes were made to latest blended


.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Saturday/...

Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

The main focus of the short term period will be the next system
progged for Friday and Saturday that will produce rain and winter

First, dry conditions will prevail for most of central Indiana
through tomorrow night. The only exception will be a few rain and
snow showers across the far southwest counties tomorrow night with
a weak disturbance, but these are low chances and will have little

Focus then turns to the next system progged for Friday and
Saturday. A surface low will track from the Central Plains
through Missouri on Friday, triggering rain showers ahead of it
from southwest to northeast across the forecast area. As
isentropic lift strengthens significantly on Friday night and
Saturday, precipitation chances will increase to definite. This is
where forecast confidence decreases though in regard to
precipitation type as the associated upper low shifts the surface
low to the southeast. Any shift in the track of the system will
have significant impacts on the precipitation types across the
forecast area. For now, the southwestern third of the forecast
area is expected to be an all rain event. However, the transition
to wintry precipitation will roughly be from a line extending
from Columbus. Northwest of that
line will primarily be a snow event with chances for the highest
snow amounts.


.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

ECMWF suggests the rain/snow system will departing the area on
Saturday night as a short wave and associated surface low drifts
southeast of Indiana. This should bring precip to an end on
Saturday Night as dry air returns to the column on northeast
winds. Confidence for precip on Saturday and early Saturday
evening remains high...but confidence on precipitation type is
low. Again a sharp cut-off looks to exist between rain and snow

Sunday Night and Monday look dry as ridging remains in place
across the area. However more wet weather looks to return on
Monday night through Wednesday as the ECMWF suggests several short
waves pushing into the Ohio Valley ahead of a deeper low over the
western plains. ECMWF suggests ample moisture accompanying these
waves...along with the arrival of a warm front on Tuesday and a
surface low on Wednesday. Thus forecast builders suggestion of
pops during this period seems reasonable.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 22/00Z TAFs/...
Issued at 719 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

VFR through the period.

Surface high pressure will be in control through the period.
Expect only a few mid and high clouds and no obstructions to
visibility. Winds will generally be northwesterly with speeds 10KT
or less.





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