Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 250055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
755 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018


Routine sounding terminated just north of the Breton National
Wildlife Refuge at a height of 106,300 feet or 20.1 miles above
the surface.

Moisture has increased a bit since last night with a precipitable
water value of 1.15 inches. Quite a bit of moisture below the
inversion at 840 mb, which was producing almost overcast
conditions at launch. Additional moisture was noted above 400 mb.
Freezing level tonight was at 14,100 feet, with the -20C level at
22,500 feet.

Southwest winds at launch became westerly around 770 mb, northwest
around 600 mb, remaining west to northwest through 75 mb. The
maximum wind of 86 knots was observed just below 41,000 feet. 35


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

Generally tranquil conditions will prevail through the early part
of the new week as ridging aloft builds into the central Gulf
Coast region and eventually across much of the eastern conus. In
the near term, a short wave trough moving across the Ohio Valley
and into the mid Atlantic region will push a cold front south
toward the forecast area later tonight and Sunday. This boundary
may trigger a few showers across the extreme northern portions of
the CWA on Sunday before retreating back north as a warm front by
Monday. Otherwise, mostly dry and warm conditions will prevail
through Monday with patchy fog expected each night and early
morning. An upper level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest
will translate eastward into the mid section of the country by mid
week. As this feature approaches, rain chances will be on the
increase, but most of the convection will hold off until at least Wednesday
..with the best chances Wednesday night and Thursday. An associated
cold front will move through the area Wednesday night into early
Thursday with a few strong to severe storms possible. Dry and
cooler weather will then return for the end of the week. 11

VFR conditions will dominate the forecast period through the rest of
this afternoon and evening. Mid level clouds will lower tonight into
MVFR and IFR categories. Areas of light to possibly moderate fog is
possible Sunday morning at most terminals. Winds should be lighter
tomorrow than today as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the


Surface high pressure centered east of the area will remain there
through Sunday, extending across the Gulf Coast. A weak front moving
in from the northeast will relax the local pressure gradient which
will weaken winds down to around 10 knots or less. Winds will be
picking back up next week as a stronger surface ridge builds across
the East Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico while a trough slow
approaches from the northwest. A strong long-fetch regime is thus
expected to develop with onshore flow bringing near SCA winds/seas
and probably above normal tides.


DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Monitoring river flooding

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
         tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


MCB  62  80  62  80 /  10  20   0  10
BTR  63  82  63  83 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  62  81  63  79 /  10  10   0  10
MSY  65  81  65  80 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  63  78  64  78 /  10  10   0  20
PQL  62  78  63  78 /  10  10   0  20



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