Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 260802
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
402 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018


...Flood Watch in Effect for South Florida...
...Rough Marine Conditions All Waters This Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...
Short term (Today-Monday)...the National Hurricane Center
continues to show Alberto moving slowly northward from just east
of the Yucatan peninsula and through east central Gulf waters
during the rest of the weekend. Meanwhile, broad sfc high pressure
remains over the west Atlantic and just to the east of the
Florida peninsula, with the state remaining under the clockwise
flow of the western edge of the high and the counterclockwise flow
of the eastern side of Alberto. This synoptic setup will ensure
continuing SSE winds across the area, and keeping deep tropical
moisture advection through the short term.

Forecast POPS remain likely to categorical with robust cloud cover
prevailing across the entire area. Heavy rainfall is also possible
at times. Saturation from previous rain will exacerbate localized
flooding over the metro areas. Therefore, a Flood Watch will remain
in effect through at least Sunday evening for all of South Florida.

Latest model analyses depict the development of a low level jet
across South Florida later today with maxima around 50 kt, along
with increasing dynamic support and CAPE around 1000 today and
Sunday. This suggest increased potential for isolated tornadoes.

In general, expect continuing wet pattern through the short term,
with the forecast continuing to be adjusted accordingly depending
on the progress of subtropical storm Alberto.

Long term (Monday night-Friday)...if Alberto continues to follow
the official forecast, it should move across the southeast states
during the first half of next week. Models show the influence of
Alberto keeping a large swath of moisture across Florida with
prevailing S/SSW flow through Friday. However, the deeper moisture
should be migrating further north of south Florida as the cyclone
departs to the NE, allowing for a return to a more typical summer
time pattern of mainly scattered showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms for the end of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
SSE winds prevail through the weekend with wind speeds reaching
20 to 25 knots later today and continuing through late Sunday. Wind
speeds gradually decrease to 15 to 20 knots late on Memorial Day,
except over the offshore Gulf waters where winds will remain around
20 knots. For the Atlantic waters, expect 2 to 4 feet increasing
to at least 7 feet tonight into Sunday, then gradually subsiding
to 4 to 6 feet on Memorial Day. The Gulf seas will also be
increasing to 6 to 8 feet tonight into Sunday, with higher seas
over the offshore waters.

A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect today for all the coastal
waters and continuing through at least Sunday night.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
The threat of Rip Currents will also be increasing this Memorial
Day weekend along both coasts of South Florida. A High Risk of
Rip Currents will be raised for the Atlantic beaches this
morning, while the Gulf beaches will be under moderate threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  80  76  82  76 /  80  80  80  60
Fort Lauderdale  80  78  82  78 /  80  80  80  60
Miami            81  77  83  77 /  90  80  80  60
Naples           81  75  83  75 /  90  80  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Sunday evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Monday
     for AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for GMZ676.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Monday
     for GMZ656-657.

&&

DISCUSSION...17/AR
AVIATION...02/RAG



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