Area Forecast Discussion
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323
FXUS62 KTAE 241904
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
304 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Low pressure area is situated the Carolinas with an expansive area
of cloud cover wrapping around the backside across the southeast US.
There is some convective elements embedded in the overall CU field
so slight chance PoPs this afternoon across our western counties is
maintained. This area is supported by a weak mid level trough which
will rotate through the area this evening. Behind this feature,
low/mid level RH begin to decrease so cloud cover should slowly wane
overnight. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 50s.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The upper low currently meandering over TN/KY this afternoon will
be kicked poleward by a shortwave trough emerging from the
northern Rockies. This will yield dry conditions for Wednesday,
with this system approaching the region from the northwest on
Thursday, bringing with it a chance for rain across mainly
southern Alabama and Georgia. The latest model guidance continues
to indicate sufficient moisture, instability and shear to support
a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening. Though deep layer
shear will be 35 to 40 knots, limited instability will keep
severe storm chances low. It is worth noting that shear profiles
with this upcoming system look unidirectional, which is not
conducive for any rotating storms or tornadoes. Temperatures will
remain seasonal through the period, with highs in the upper
70s/low 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The system discussed in the short term period will lift poleward
out of the region Friday morning, giving way to another shortwave
trough approaching from the west. The GFS and it`s ensemble
members are bullish on POPs this afternoon compared to other
guidance, as moisture content will be a big question mark as this
system approaches. As a result, kept POPs low for this period, as
any showers that may develop will likely be sparse in nature.
Quasi-zonal flow will prevail through the end of the period,
yielding dry and seasonal conditions.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

MVFR/VFR cigs in moderate CU field wrapping around low pressure
center has developed in earnest across the southeast. I haven`t seen
any reports of light showers but wouldn`t be surprised across SE AL
this afternoon with the depth of the moderate CU elements on
satellite. For the most part, have VFR but tempo to high MVFR in
thicker CU is possible. Overnight, have MVFR working into DHN as
cigs fall through the night with a return to VFR by mid morning.

&&

.MARINE...

West to northwest winds around 15 knots will with 2 to 3 foot seas
will prevail through Wednesday afternoon before gradually
decreasing through this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected over the next few days, though
dispersion indices are forecast to be marginally high.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The next chance of rain will come on Thursday, with a few heavier
showers possible, mainly across our northwestern areas. However,
rain totals should remain well under 1" for most areas, with dry
conditions through the remainder of the period. As a result, no
flooding is expected through the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   57  80  57  81  59 /  10   0   0  10  20
Panama City   61  75  61  76  60 /  10   0   0  10  10
Dothan        55  78  57  79  56 /  10   0   0  60  20
Albany        55  78  56  80  57 /  10   0   0  50  40
Valdosta      57  79  56  82  59 /  10   0   0  10  20
Cross City    59  78  58  80  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  61  76  62  77  62 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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