Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 252119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
218 PM MST Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with unseasonably warm daytime
temperatures again Thursday. Increased moisture will then bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly east of
Tucson Friday into Saturday. Dry conditions to return Sunday, with
next week shaping up to be a little cooler and windy at times.


.DISCUSSION...The main weather story will be the increase in
moisture and the chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday and
Saturday. Latest models were in good agreement with spreading mid-
level moisture into eastern sections of Arizona by Friday and more
so on Saturday. This increase in moisture combined with daytime
surface heating will result in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours on Friday
and Saturday. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
east of Tucson and mainly in the mountains. Thereafter, a low
pressure system entering the Pacific Northwest will push this
moisture east of the area Sunday with rain chances ending. A
secondary system will impact the region early next week bringing
windy conditions and slightly cooler daytime temperatures.


.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z.
Few to scattered cirrus clouds this evening into Thursday. Surface
wind west to northwest 8-15 kts with occasional gusts near 20 kts
this evening...becoming variable in direction mainly under 10 kts
tonight and early Thursday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Light winds and dry conditions into early
Thursday, then increased moisture from the east brings a slight
chance of thunderstorms over the White Mountains Thursday afternoon
and evening. Sufficient moisture for isolated to scattered mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms from Tucson eastward Friday into

The main concern Friday into Saturday is thunderstorms capable of
starting fires and producing strong outflow winds, especially in the
higher terrain where development is more likely. Dry conditions will
then prevail Sunday into Tuesday.

20-foot winds terrain driven less than 15 mph through Thursday.
Gusty east to southeast winds from Tucson eastward Friday morning
should occur before potentially gusty thunderstorm outflows Friday
afternoon into Saturday. Gusty south to southwest winds are on tap
Saturday into Monday. Critical fire conditions may return Monday and
Tuesday particularly across mountains from Tucson southward and
southeastward into Santa Cruz/Cochise Counties.





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