Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
930 FXXX12 KWNP 181231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 18 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with the majority of the low level C-class activity originating from Region 4136 (N21W43, Dkc/beta-delta). The largest flare was a C3.5/Sf at 18/0813 UTC from Region 4136. Slight growth and separation occurred in Region 4136. Slight decay and consolidation occurred in Regions 4143 (N25W31, Eki/beta-gamma). Slight decay was observed in Regions 4139 (N22W61, Dko/beta) and 4142 (N01E02, Dai/beta-gamma). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Low-level solar activity is expected to continue, with M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares likely, and a slight chance for an isolated X-class (R3-Strong) flare over 18-20 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,593 pfu observed at 17/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 18-20 Jul. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels over 18-20 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment remained enhanced during the period due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. The total magnetic field strength ranged between 5-8 nT, with the Bz component reaching as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds peaked near 780 km/s around 17/1500 UTC before gradually decreasing in the hours that followed. The phi remained mostly positive throughout the period. .Forecast... Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to continue but gradually weaken over 18-20 Jul as positive polarity CH HSS influence diminishes. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... Quiet to active conditions are expected on 18 Jul due to continued positive polarity CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated on 19-20 Jul as HSS influence gradually wanes.