Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
000
ACUS01 KWNS 261934
SWODY1
SPC AC 261933

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the Southeast
this afternoon and this evening.

...Discussion...
Aside from small line adjustments to reflect current convective
trends, no changes are being made to the ongoing outlook at this
time.  Earlier forecast reasoning remains valid, with potential that
a severe storm or two may develop this afternoon/early evening over
the Georgia/western Carolinas vicinity.

..Goss.. 04/26/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

...Southwest GA into western SC/NC this afternoon and evening...
A progressive upper low over northern MS will track eastward across
the Southeast states today.  The associated band of frontal
precipitation is moving across eastern AL into GA, and will continue
progressing into the western Carolinas this afternoon and evening.
So far, convection along this band has been weak with very little
lightning activity or higher reflectivity noted on radar.  However,
some heating ahead of the line may result in an uptick in
intensities this afternoon.  Relatively weak and westerly low level
winds should limit the overall severe threat over GA, but an
isolated hail or damaging wind report cannot be ruled out.  Farther
north in the Carolinas, slightly stronger vertical shear might
result in more organization and bowing structures later today, but
very weak thermodynamics are a limiting factor.

...Northern/Central GA later today...
In the wake of this morning convective band of eastern AL/western
GA, some potential will exists for modest destabilization under the
upper low.  Visible and water vapor imagery shows some dry air
moving into this region, and 12z CAM solutions indicate the
development of scattered thunderstorms.  Forecast soundings show
favorable vertical profiles for a few slow-moving but organized
storms capable of small hail and gusty winds.  Current indications
are that surface heating will be quite limited due to low clouds.
This should be the main limiting factor to a more robust severe
threat.

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.