Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 051442
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
842 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022

.UPDATE...
Cancelled Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the southeast counties.
Convection has moved east. TWH

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday...

Severe convection will exit southeast MT in the next 1-2 hours.
The remainder of the cwa is dry but w/ areas of upslope stratus
per easterly winds and a very moist boundary layer. Satellite
imagery shows southwest flow and a shortwave lifting into
southern ID.

Moist and unstable air mass will remain in place the next two
days, and we are looking at more severe weather. Upstream wave
will provide weak ascent later today. Storms will begin over along
the mountains/foothills then track eastward, aided by a low level
jet over our eastern plains tonight. In addition to severe wx,
more heavy rain in our east will fall on already saturated ground
to yield a risk of flash flooding...especially for Custer & Fallon
counties. After a break in the action late tonight and Wednesday
morning, more potentially severe storms are expected in the
afternoon and evening, as additional weak impulses lift thru the
southwest flow aloft. Remarkably resilient stormy and humid
pattern over a stretch of several days.

Temps will remain seasonable with highs mostly upper 70s to mid
80s.

JKL


Wednesday night through Monday...

More storms expected for the rest of the week, with an increase in
temperatures and in general, fairly hot and humid days that`ll
make you feel like you`re in the midwest.

Wednesday evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms should
occur over the region as a weak upper air disturbances moves over
the area in southwesterly flow aloft. Storms could produce large
hail, strong wind gusts and localized heavy rainfall.

A similar story can be told for each day the rest of the week,
though increasing temperatures (reaching the 90s Friday-Saturday)
may limit the severe potential. A more prominent upper trough and
shortwave will swing through Saturday, bringing with it a cold
front that will slightly cool us off, but also could provide a
prominent source of lift for high thunderstorm coverage Saturday.
Something to keep an eye on. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible Sunday under zonal flow aloft. Upper ridging looks to
build over the area from the west Monday which should bring dry
conditions.

Vertz/RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms w/ heavy rain and MVFR-IFR will exit far southeast
MT by 14z. Further west, there are areas of upslope stratus
producing MVFR ceilings, which should gradually diminish thru the
morning. By this afternoon and evening we expect more thunderstorm
activity spreading west to east. Storms may be severe and produce
hail and strong winds, along with frequent lightning. JKL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 061/086 062/088 062/091 062/089 061/085 058/084
    3/T 32/T    33/T    23/T    22/T    22/T    11/U
LVM 080 054/085 055/087 054/089 055/087 053/084 051/084
    5/T 24/T    45/T    33/T    23/T    21/U    11/U
HDN 083 060/088 061/090 060/092 060/092 059/087 057/085
    3/T 31/U    33/T    22/T    12/T    21/U    11/U
MLS 084 063/084 065/088 064/090 065/090 064/084 060/083
    5/T 61/B    35/T    32/T    22/T    21/B    21/U
4BQ 086 062/084 064/089 064/091 065/092 063/086 060/084
    4/T 52/T    24/T    22/T    11/U    21/U    21/U
BHK 081 061/081 062/085 063/088 065/090 061/081 058/081
    6/T 73/T    35/T    42/T    22/T    32/T    21/U
SHR 086 059/086 059/089 059/090 060/092 058/084 057/083
    4/T 33/T    34/T    22/T    11/U    12/T    21/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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