Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 200302
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
902 PM MDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.UPDATE...
Just a tweak to RH overnight. Otherwise forecast looks good. Only
concern is some fog developing again in far east. However, it
appears at this time some mixing in the boundary layer overnight
will prevent formation of fog. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Wed and Thu...

Expect to see warm and dry conditions across the region through
Thursday, as a ridge of high pressure dominates the pattern.

Above normal high temperatures will prevail through the short term
forecast period. Expect highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s for
Wednesday, with 50s and 60s for Thursday. Overnight lows will
remain in the 20s and 30s across the region, thanks to clear
night skies. The cool overnight lows will help to slow the snow
melt across the region.

Gilstad

.LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...

Relatively minor changes for the extended forecast period this
afternoon, as ensembles support more northerly extent of precip,
as favored by GFS in previous runs.

Southerly flow aloft becomes southeasterly Thursday into Friday as
the upper level low shifts northeast from the great basin,
undercutting the upper level ridge that has been dominating the
pattern. Negative tilt of the trof results in potentially opening
to bring gulf moisture into the region. precip returns to
high terrain by Saturday morning, with enough moisture pushes
into the area for precip to spread over southeast Montana by
Saturday evening. Pattern recognition points to a significant
precip event with this system through Monday afternoon, which
would favor strong cyclogenesis. That said, models have been slow
to grab on to this signature, and do not appear as dynamic as it
could be, possibly to second low lagging behind, siphoning off
energy.

The upper level low shifts east across the Dakotas Sunday night,
and moisture sags slowly south through Monday morning. Dry
conditions will return to end the period, as ridging develops over
the area.

As for temps, expect above normal highs throughout the extended
forecast period. Highs in the 50s and 60s are expected for
Thursday and Friday. Highest temps will be Friday, ahead of the
approaching upper low. Temps will trend downward as system
approaches and moisture increases over the weekend, with 40s and
50s in most locations. Temps will trend back upward early next
week, with return of ridging.

Gilstad
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail tonight. Patchy fog possible over
eastern valley locations (KMLS,KBHK,K4BQ) overnight into tomorrow
morning. Low probability of development but could be locally dense
(LIFR) if it does form. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/057 031/061 031/062 035/057 037/052 032/054 031/061
    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    23/R    32/O    00/U
LVM 020/054 025/054 026/054 029/053 029/048 024/050 027/052
    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    24/O    31/B    11/B
HDN 021/056 024/060 026/061 029/055 031/051 028/054 026/060
    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    23/O    32/O    10/U
MLS 020/048 022/050 026/054 028/051 029/047 028/050 025/056
    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    12/O    22/S    10/U
4BQ 023/052 025/056 029/059 031/054 031/050 029/050 026/056
    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/O    22/O    32/S    00/U
BHK 020/045 020/050 025/053 029/049 029/045 026/045 022/052
    00/U    00/U    00/B    02/O    22/O    22/S    00/U
SHR 023/055 027/059 029/059 032/054 032/051 029/051 028/057
    00/U    00/U    01/B    22/O    23/O    32/S    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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