Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 180422
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
922 PM MST Sat Nov 17 2018

.UPDATE...

Just a minor update to adjust temperatures overnight based on
latest observations. Surface pressures are falling over northeast
MT, which should help to strengthen the surface pressure gradient
and associated surface winds over southern MT. The breezy
conditions should help temperatures to be nearly steady overnight.
In addition, winds will strengthen more markedly overnight in the
Livingston-Big Timber corridor as that pressure gradient
strengthens. The current forecast already includes these stronger
winds. Update sent. RMS

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Sun and Mon...

Flurries and stratus were lingering across far southeast Montana
this afternoon as the system that brought yesterday`s snow
continued to move out of the region. Ridging will build in over
the region tonight with lee-side troughing developing at the
surface. This will tighten the pressure gradients increasing
downslope winds over the area. Given the recent precipitation,
cannot rule out some localized valley fog overnight as well. Gusty
winds will develop along the western foothills overnight into
Sunday with gusts of 40 to 55 mph possible. Some blowing snow is
possible as well, before temperatures warm above freezing by the
afternoon.

A clipper system is progged to drop in from the northwest Sunday
evening and night bringing a chance of snow, with some mixed
precipitation a possibility as well, to eastern areas. Snow
accumulations look to be minor, generally less than an inch. Drier
conditions then return for Monday as high pressure builds in from
the west. High temperatures in the 40s can be expected for Sunday
and Monday. Lows in the single digits to teens can be expected
tonight, with mainly 20s for Sunday night and Monday night. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

The holiday week starts off with a strong upper ridge building
into the area. This will provide good travel conditions with sunny
skies and temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s for highs through
Thursday. Ridge axis shifts to the east of the area Thursday night
allowing southwest flow aloft to advect Pacific moisture into the
area for the end of the week and weekend. A few disturbances
crossing the area may be able to tap the moisture and provide
enough lift to generate isolated to scattered rain/snow showers at
times Friday through the weekend, with the best shot at some
accumulating precipitation on Saturday. Overall the west facing
mountain slopes will be the most favored for precipitation in this
pattern, while downslope will inhibit plains precipitation
potential. High temperatures will trend lower through the weekend,
but no real cold air in site through forecast day 10. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly clear conditions expected with increasing southwest winds.
Winds may gust above 40kt by Sunday morning at KLVM. borsum
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021/043 028/046 030/050 030/051 032/049 031/047 028/041
    00/N    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    33/W
LVM 019/042 025/046 027/048 025/048 030/046 030/043 027/038
    00/Q    10/U    00/N    00/N    01/N    14/W    43/J
HDN 014/044 026/048 025/052 023/053 026/051 027/048 025/041
    00/B    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    33/J
MLS 015/041 027/043 026/050 025/051 027/050 029/046 025/038
    01/E    32/S    00/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    12/J
4BQ 016/045 028/045 026/054 025/054 027/052 029/049 025/040
    00/B    32/S    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    23/J
BHK 016/039 026/041 025/049 025/050 026/048 027/043 023/035
    01/B    43/S    10/U    00/U    00/B    01/B    12/J
SHR 901/044 024/047 023/052 023/053 025/051 026/047 023/039
    00/U    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B    23/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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