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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280803
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
203 AM MDT Thu Sep 28 2023

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday night...

Water vapor imagery was showing a broad upper trough over the
Pacific Northwest, stretching east into the Northern Rockies. This
trough has replaced the upper ridge was over the area a few days
ago. Cooler temperatures have accompanied the trough, with highs
generally in the mid 70s yesterday. Highs today will be even
cooler, with maxes in the mid to upper 60s, courtesy of a cold
front ripping through the forecast area overnight.

Broad troughing will continue tonight. A shortwave within the
trough will shoot across the Great Basin this evening and generate
scattered showers over parts of south central Montana, northern
Wyoming, into southeast Montana. There was enough elevated
instability for a slight chance for a rumble of thunder over
southeast Montana tonight. Rain totals will generally be on the
light side (a tenth of an inch or less) but there could be
isolated total of a quarter inch in a stronger shower.

The shortwave over the east will exit the area Friday. Mid level
flow backs as the western trough digs into California and Nevada.
This will set up a dry day with highs ranging from the upper 60s
west to mid 70s east. The digging western trough will edge
eastward and kick some weak energy into western and northern zones
late tonight for an isolated shower chance. TWH

Saturday through Wednesday...

There is good model agreement that a trough will drop down from
Pacific northwest late Friday into Saturday. The upper low looks
to deepen to our west and bring persistent precipitation chances
for Sunday through Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are trending
drier early Sunday and highlighting late Sunday into the early
workweek for the best precipitation chances. Precipitation amounts
are highly uncertain as the upper low starts to weaken and split
Monday. Currently the ECMWF is forecasting wetter conditions than
the GFS, but neither are showing high precipitation amounts.
Temperatures will be seasonal with temperatures in the 60s for
most places over the weekend. 70s will be seen closer to the
border with the Dakotas as they will be feeling the effects of an
upper ridge to our east. Temperatures will remain in the 60s to
low 70s Monday through Wednesday as the trough weakens before it
moves over our region. Torgerson

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms have largely moved out of the area with
a few remaining showers north of Miles City. Winds are currently
gusting into the 30s for Miles City and Sheridan as a front moves
through the area. Winds will begin to calm down as morning
approaches in those areas. VFR conditions with some high clouds
and light winds are expected tomorrow during the day. Around 06Z
Friday there is about a 30% chance for some showers for Miles City
and Baker. Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 044/069 047/067 048/064 048/067 047/068 047/070
    0/B 10/B    11/B    23/W    73/W    21/B    11/B
LVM 067 037/068 041/065 042/061 042/063 041/063 042/065
    0/U 10/B    22/W    46/W    74/W    33/W    22/W
HDN 068 041/070 045/071 045/064 045/069 042/069 042/072
    0/B 20/B    11/B    22/W    73/W    21/B    11/B
MLS 067 046/071 051/077 052/068 050/067 046/067 045/070
    0/B 30/B    21/B    22/W    64/W    21/B    11/B
4BQ 068 048/074 051/081 051/069 049/070 045/068 045/071
    0/U 40/B    10/B    11/B    62/W    11/B    11/U
BHK 066 043/070 047/073 051/074 048/068 043/067 042/067
    0/B 30/B    11/N    11/B    53/W    21/B    11/B
SHR 067 041/072 044/075 045/067 044/067 040/066 040/070
    0/U 20/U    00/U    22/W    73/W    21/B    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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