Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 202300
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
700 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west overnight through
Monday. A warm front will cross the region Tuesday followed by
a cold front for late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Canadian high pressure will then build toward the region
Wednesday afternoon and night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 PM Update...
Satl imagery showed clouds pushing across the Central Highland
and Downeast. The thickest cloud cover was across the Downeast
region as BGR and BHB had reported BKN250 and BKN038
respectively. Skies will continue to clear overnight as drier
works its way into the region. Winds attm still up 10-15 mph
sustained w/gusts to 25 mph. The winds however, were dropping
off over the last couple of hrs. Thinking is that winds will
continue to drop off into the evening as high pres starts to
work eastward. Temps were up a few degrees from the previous
forecast. Decided to adjust the readings up a few degrees using
the last 3 hr trend and the LAV guidance blended in. Still
expecting some upper 30s back across the w and nw areas by early
Monday morning. No other chgs needed.

Previous Discussion...
Decreasing clouds can be expected this evening in the wake of a
cold front crossing the region late this afternoon. As winds
decouple later this evening, temperatures across the north will
fall back into the mid to upper 30s by daybreak. Overall, frost
potential looks limited, with perhaps only some patchy frost in
the coldest sheltered valley locations. Monday is shaping up as
a dry day with the biggest concern being the gusty northwest
winds and fire weather potential. The greatest mixing potential
looks to be across the north where we could see gusts up to 35
mph at times. Will address in Fire Weather section below. Highs
on Monday will range from the mid to upper 60s north and mid 60s
to lower 70s downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
 ...Fast Zonal WNW Aloft Flow Regime Will Continue...

Mon ngt will begin fair with dissipating winds in the eve. This
will allow some radiational cooling spcly across the NE where
they may be patchy vly late ngt frost. Clds will then increase
late Mon ngt with the apch of a warm front from the W...meaning
that temps may begin rising prior to day light across out FA.

Skies will then be ptly to msly cldy on Tue with sct aftn/eve
shwrs due to deep layer warm advcn and the passage of an upper
lvl s/wv. On Wed, a cold front from Nrn Can will bring a renewed
sct aftn/erly eve shwr potential. With little if any in the way
of MUCAPE both days, the potential for thunder is considered to
be to low to add to the fcst attm. Both hi temps Tue and ovrngt
lows Tue ngt will be milder than Mon.

Clrg skies are then xpctd from NW to SE ovrngt Wed with
diminishing winds and cooler ovrngt lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thu will begin fair, but another fast movg s/wv in a cont`d NW
flow regime will bring increasing cldnss Thu aftn with a chc of
shwrs late in the day thru Thu ngt and perhaps even into Fri.
After fair conditions Fri ngt thru Sat, clds will increase Sat
ngt ahead of a potentially regime chgng s/wv complex from the
midwest that could bring the next chc of shwrs to the rgn on
Sun. Overall, temps will be near normal for the long rang pd.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through Monday. The main
weather concern will be the potential for northwest wind gusts
to 35 kts at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR all TAF sites xcpt perhaps brief MVFR
clgs/vsbys with any heavier rn shwr both Tue and Wed aftn/erly
eve.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect until 2 AM
EDT Monday, otherwise winds/seas will remain below SCA levels.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No wind/sea hdlns anticipated for these
ptns of the marine fcst attm. Went with about 80 to 90 percent
of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts. Fcst primary wv pds will be
swell type arnd 10 sec with a secondary short wind fetch pd of
arnd 5 to 7 sec.

&&

.Fire Weather...
RHs are forecast to drop 30-35% by the early afternoon with
sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph w/the strongest winds across the
far n. There should be plenty of sunshine to help dry things out
more. Collaborated w/the MFS and GYX and the decision was to go
w/a Fire Weather Watch for Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Hewitt
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda/Hewitt/VJN
Marine...Duda/Hewitt/VJN



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