Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 201454
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
954 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross the Gulf of Maine today then exit across
the Maritimes tonight. A strong cold front will cross the area
late Wednesday. High pressure will build in Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945pm Update...
Update to delay onset of snow Downeast by several hours. Only
localized very light snow has fallen so far Downeast. It`s still
coming this afternoon and thinking for snow totals hasn`t really
changed...it`s just starting later than previously thought.

Previous Discussion...
Intensifying low pressure will track across the Gulf of Maine
today, then exit across the Maritimes tonight. Snow will develop
across Downeast areas this morning then expand north across the
forecast area through the morning into the afternoon.
Precipitation will generally remain in the form of snow, though
the snow could mix with rain at times near the immediate
Downeast coast this afternoon. Snow will persist early tonight,
then taper to snow showers with mostly cloudy skies overnight in
the wake of the exiting low. The greatest storm total snow
accumulations, generally 3 to 5 inches through early tonight,
are still expected across Downeast areas where Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect through early tonight. Snow
accumulations will decrease northward across the remainder of
the forecast area. Accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected
across central portions of the forecast area, tapering to around
an inch or less across northern areas. High temperatures today
will range from the lower to mid 20s north, to around 30
interior Downeast with lower to mid 30s along the Downeast
coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper
teens north, to the lower 20s interior Downeast with mid 20s
along the Downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will approach from the west Wednesday morning and
then move across the southern portion of the region late in the
afternoon and during the evening. The low will then move
eastward across Nova Scotia late Wednesday night. This system
will produce light amounts of snow across the region. Winds are
expected to increase Thursday as the low intensifies east of the
region, resulting in blowing snow across northern and central
areas. Also, a very cold air mass will move into the region
Thursday and combine with the gusty winds lowering wind chill
equivalent temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strong high pressure is expected to build in from the west
Friday and is expected to crest over the region late Friday.
The high will then move to the east of the area Saturday. A
frontal system is expected to bring snow showers to the region
Sunday into Monday. Moderating temperatures are also expected
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR, with occasional IFR, conditions will occur
across northern areas today through early tonight. Generally
IFR/LIFR conditions are expected Downeast this afternoon
through early tonight. Occasional MVFR conditions are expected
across the north and mountains later tonight, with VFR
conditions developing Downeast.

SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions early Wednesday then MVFR/IFR
conditions expected late Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and
mountains during Thanksgiving, with generally VFR conditions
Downeast. VFR conditions are expected across the entire region
Friday into Saturday. Northwest winds will increase in the wake
of the strong cold front Wednesday night. Strong gusty
northwest winds are expected across the entire region during
Thanksgiving.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
waters today into tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in
snow/rain today into tonight.

SHORT TERM: Will use the Nam to initialize winds. For Waves:
Southwesterly wind wave is expected to be the primary wave
system Wednesday with waves building to around 8 feet/8-9
seconds by the early evening. Off-shore wind wave will be the
primary wave system on Thursday. Gale force winds are possible
late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for ANZ050>052.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Foisy/Norcross
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Foisy/Norcross/Mignone
Marine...Foisy/Norcross/Mignone



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