Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 081543
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1143 AM EDT Sat May 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across area from the north and west today
with low pressure expected to track well south and east of the
area over the weekend. Another weak low from the west will
approach the region Monday, cross the area Tuesday, then slowly
move east of the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:40 AM Update: Clouds now cover the entire area so had to
increase clouds again to go mostly cloudy to overcast throughout
the region. Also lowered temps a couple degrees with less
heating now expected.

Prev Disc: Models have really struggled with the details of the
track of the open Atlc coastal low from the SE states ovr the
last few days. After movg the track to E of NS prov, tngt`s 00z
dtmnstc model runs of both the GFS and ECMWF now adjusted the
track of the low slightly back to the W, bringing the cntr very
close to the ern tip of NS by eve. PoPs had to be re-introduced
for far SE ptns of our FA for midday into erly eve for what
should amt to very lgt rnfl there. Otherwise, hi/mid cld cvr
will cont to advc nwrd thru the rest of the FA tdy with a dry
and increasingly breezy llvl NNE wind. Hi temps tdy will remain
cool for this tm of season due to increasing cld cvr.

Tngt, low cldnss will circulate cyclonically arnd the departing
low back ovr spcly Nrn and Ern ptns of the FA from Nrn NB and
Ern QB. This should keep low temps tngt from being as cool as
this past ngt, with the possible xcptn of far wrn ptns of the
Rgn if the cld canopy doesn`t xtnd ovr this area. The wrn edge
of any remaining rn/shwrs tngt should remain just E of the ME/NB
border given no further shift wwrd of the low track. It will
still be a little breezy from the N and NW particularly ovr Ern
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday morning will be dominated by a northwesterly flow on the
backside of a vertically stacked low in the Gulf of St Lawrence.
The low will slowly drift towards Newfoundland during the day
and allow high pressure to build with a trend towards decreasing
clouds and winds. Did lower dew points with the dry Canadian air
mass and deep mixing. Winds will gust to 25 mph before
decreasing later in the day. The combination of winds and low
relative humidity raises concern with respect to fire weather.
Temperatures will vary from the mid 60s for Bangor and Downeast
to around 60F for northern Aroostook County. Offshore winds will
keep the sea breeze out Sunday. Can`t rule out a sprinkle in NE
Aroostook County on Sunday morning. Light winds and clear skies
will permit good radiational cooling for northern zones on
Sunday night. Some frost is possible in Aroostook County.
Towards the coast, high clouds with a wave of low pressure
moving south of the area will limit lows to the lower 40s. The
wave could bring up to a tenth of inch of rain to the coast late
Sunday night into early Monday morning. Did blend in GFS and
ECMWF which did boost PoPs and QPF, but confidence in the wave
affecting the coast is not real high. Later Monday, daytime
heating and 850/700mb moisture will generate showers in northern
zones with graupel possible given the low freezing levels. The
unstable layer looks too shallow to produce thunder. Highs on
Monday will reach the lower 60s with the sea breeze in operation
on the coast to lower highs there to around 50F. Given the warm
925mb temps, we may have to trend upward for Monday`s highs. As
a cold upper low approaches Monday night, showers continue in
the forecast for northern zones where an axis of low level
convergence prevails overnight in combination with upper level
cooling due to the approach of the upper low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold upper level low crosses the area Tuesday into Wednesday
with a lot of shower activity in northern zones and a bit less
towards Bangor and the coast. The shower activity could generate
up to a half inch of rain. Shower activity will decrease later
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper low moves eastward out
of the area. Temperatures on both Tuesday and Wednesday will be
on the cool side with highs in the 50s and even some upper 40s
are possible. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s. Snow at
elevations above 2500ft is expected Tuesday night, but boundary
layer temps are currently expected to be too warm to support
snow at lower elevations. The warmer weather returns Thursday
into Friday as surface and upper level ridging builds. Highs
will return to the low to mid 60s with some sunshine. Have some
chance PoPs returning later Friday into Friday night, but
confidence is not too high.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Tdy...VFR conditions with clgs lowering to low VFR by
eve. Lgt to mdt NE winds becmg N this aftn.

Tngt...Low VFR clgs Downeast sites. Low VFR clgs Nrn TAF sites
transitioning to MVFR clgs late eve, then contg MVFR thru the
late ngt. Lgt N winds becmg NW late.

SHORT TERM: Sunday morning...chance of MVFR cigs north of HUL;
otherwise VFR.

Sunday afternoon into Monday night...VFR. Chance of small hail
Monday afternoon. NW winds gusting to 20kt Sunday afternoon.

Tuesday into Tuesday night...MVFR tempo IFR in showers. Light
winds.

Wednesday...MVFR north of HUL and GNR in the morning due to cigs
and scattered showers. NW winds gusting to 25kt in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The intracoastal waters have now been put in a SCA
and winds over the offshore waters have been raised to gusts up
to 30 kt in the SCA. The SCA off Washington County has been
extended through the evening.

SHORT TERM: No advisories or warnings are expected. The case for
fog is not strong through the period. Wind gusts will be over
20kt Sunday afternoon and evening...and again later Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Long period south swell near 5ft is
expected Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ051-
     052.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...VJN/MCW
Marine...VJN/MCW


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