Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 170350
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1150 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will approach the region from the west
early Tuesday then cross the region later Tuesday through
Tuesday night. High pressure will build across the region
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1135 pm Update...
Temperatures at this hour were ranging from the low to mid 60s
across downeast in areas of fog but in the mild lower 70s
across the northern half of the forecast area. Have adjusted the
forecast based on current conditions. Did back off a bit on the
chance of showers overnight based on latest HRRR and current
radar trends.

Prev discussion blo...
A southerly flow will emerge this evening and through the night.
This flow will advect a broad area of fog and stratus from the
Gulf of Maine northward to cover most of the forecast area by
later tonight. Fog will be most likely towards the coast and in
higher terrain areas, but could extend over the southern half of
the forecast area by daybreak Tuesday. Stratus will definitely
cover the entire area by later tonight. The clouds and continued
moisture advection will limit lows tonight to the low to mid
60s. The low clouds remain a big part of the story on Tuesday as
they`ll limit high temperatures and development of surface-based
instability. As a result, will not include any enhanced wording
for winds or hail in spite of the SPC marginal risk. Heavy
rainfall remains the significant concern. There is some elevated
instability that will cross the southern half of the area
Tuesday morning into early afternoon. Some storms could fire
from an H850 thermal ridge and there is a strong H850 LLJ exit
region on the back edge of this elevated instability area. Will
mention scattered thunderstorms with heavy rainfall in response.
Both surface-based and elevated convection are unimpressive in
the afternoon when PWATs and the deep warm cloud increase ahead
of the cold front. Dew points will likely be just above 70F
ahead of the cold front, an event that occurs very infrequently
here. The abundant moisture, warm cloud depth, strong LLJ,
precipitation efficiency and potential for training cells leads
to continuing mention of heavy rainfall in the northern and
western zones Tuesday afternoon. All of the area will likely
receive a much-needed half inch to an inch of rainfall, but the
area most likely to receive greater amounts appears to be
towards the Moosehead Lake region. The combination of terrain in
Piscataquis County and rainfall rates locally reaching 1 to 2
inches in 3 hours will make this area worthy of close watch
later tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night, reaching the
Downeast coast late. Precipitable water values of around 2.00
inches are expected in advance of the front. With the abundant
moisture and possible training showers/thunderstorms, could
still have a chance of locally heavy rain in advance of the
front Tuesday night. Shower/thunderstorm chances will diminish
in the wake of the front. The front will exit across the Gulf of
Maine Wednesday, while high pressure begins to build toward the
region. Could still have a chance of showers Downeast early
Wednesday with the exiting front, with decreasing clouds during
the afternoon. Across northern and central portions of the
forecast area, expect partly/mostly cloudy skies early Wednesday
with decreasing clouds during the afternoon. High pressure then
builds across the region Wednesday night through Thursday with
mostly clear skies. Temperatures will be at near normal, to
slightly above normal, levels Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the region Friday into
Saturday, then begin to exit across the Maritimes later
Saturday. Generally expect mostly clear skies Friday/Saturday.
The return flow around exiting high pressure will bring
increasing moisture Sunday into Monday with increasing shower
chances. Temperatures will remain at near normal, to slightly
above normal, levels Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 1135 Update...
VLIFR at this hour KBGR/KBHB in low clouds and areas of fog. VFR
was occurring at the northern terminals but expect conditions
to deteriorate to IFR/LIFR by daybreak in low clouds and patch
fog.

LIFR at BHB into Tue afternoon. Remaining terminals will see
IFR restrictions, though showers may raise conditions to MVFR
at some point during the afternoon. However, embedded tstms with
locally heavy rainfall expected may keep IFR restrictions in
place through most of the day.

SHORT TERM: Generally expect MVFR/IFR conditions across northern
areas through the early morning hours Wednesday, with improving
conditions late. MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected Downeast
Tuesday night. Showers, with a slight chance of thunderstorms
along with locally heavy rain, are expected in advance of the
cold front Tuesday night. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected
Downeast early Wednesday, with VFR conditions developing during
the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected across northern areas
Wednesday. VFR conditions are expected across the entire region
Wednesday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Fog continues through Tuesday. Winds and seas will
pick up ahead of cold front later Tuesday, but the stability of
the situation does not support an SCA due to winds. Long period
south swell could reach nearly 5 ft by late Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Generally expect conditions to remain below small
craft advisory levels Tuesday night through Thursday. However,
conditions could approach small craft advisory levels early
Tuesday night. Visibilities will be be reduced in showers and
fog, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms, Tuesday night.
Showers will persist early Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Duda/Norcross
Marine...Duda/Norcross



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