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000
FXUS61 KCAR 272212
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
612 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle south of the region tonight into
Sunday. A cold front will cross the area Sunday afternoon. High
pressure will build down from Canada Sunday night and crest
over the region Monday. The high will move south of the area
Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cold front will cross the area
on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6:12 PM Update: Mid level clouds at 8-10 thousand feet ASL will
move east of the FA during the evening with the sky to become
clear. The air mass is much milder compared to this time last
evening, and with warm air advection aloft and a light breeze
temperatures will be unseasonably mild with lows in the 50s. The
coolest spots will likely be along the immediate shoreline and
the outer islands where a few spots may drop into the upper 40s
owing to the cold ocean waters. The ongoing forecast handles
everything very well with only very minor tweaks to account for
current conditions and expected trends this evening.

Previous discussion:
Vertically stacked high pressure will extend from the Great
Lakes into southern New England through Sunday as a sharp
shortwave trough moves across eastern Quebec and into the
Canadian Maritimes. This shortwave will bring a cold front
through the area Sunday.

For tonight, a band of cloud cover associated with mid level
warm air advection will gradually dissipate and move east of the
area this evening, leading to clear skies. However, the
increasing pressure gradient and warm advection aloft will keep
overnight temperatures from falling significantly with lows in
the 50s expected.

For Sunday, sunny skies are expected to start the day. The cold
front is forecast to reach the far northern Maine border by late
morning or mid-day, then progress through the rest of the area
during the afternoon. Across the far north high temperatures
will occur earlier in the day than usual, but should still reach
well into the 70s to around 80 degrees. To the south, highs will
be well into the 80s away from the immediate coast. An isolated
shower is possible along the cold front, but dry air will
significantly limit coverage. Chances of measurable
precipitation are likely just below 15 percent, but decided to
raise it to this threshold for inclusion in the forecast for
awareness of those with outdoor plans. Windy conditions are
expected across northern Maine with peak gusts around 30-40 mph.
The gradient will not be as strong Downeast with wind gusts
only expected to reach around 20-30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front will be approaching the coast Sun evening with very
little left in the way of showers as it heads into dry low level
airmass. Skies will clear rapidly Sun night with winds remaining
mixed. Mins likely to dip into the upr 30s acrs the north, closest
to cold airmass and sfc ridge axis.

Memorial Day will still see winds coming fm the north though sunny
skies are expected. H8 temps rise to near +6C in the afternoon with
temps climbing to right around seasonal norms. Entire area wl climb
to around 70F for Monday though outer islands likely to remain in
the u50s to right around 60 degrees. Either way a beautiful Memorial
Day on tap.

1024mb sfc high builds offshore Mon night with flow turning light
swrly. Very strong inversion wl set up Mon night as strong H8 waa
kicks in. Difference btwn the ridges and valleys for mins may be as
much as 10-12 degrees F by morning under clear skies.

Tuesday will feature well above normal temperatures acrs the north
with most locations approaching the 80-degree mark. Downeast
expected to be cooler with onshore flow, keeping temps down in the
lwr 70s for interior Downeast and even cooler along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week thus far with
H5 ridge building twd the area. H8 temps will climb twd and
possibly abv 15C with cu developing in diurnal htg. Though
onshore flow keeps temps along the coast cool in the m/u 60s the
remainder of the region should climb well into the m/u 80s.
These temps wl rival record highs set on this date (see climate
section).

Southwest flow continues on Wed night with temps only dipping
into the mid to upr 50s by Thur morning. High temps wl be
determined by an approaching front drg the day Thu. NBM fcst
currently has skies clouding up with scattered showers acrs the
north by 18z Thu. If front slows down temps could rival
Wednesdays highs in the mid-upr 80s acrs the north. Confidence
is too low to stray from NBM guidance with guidance being all
over the place. Models showing a 10-15 degree difference btwn
max temps on Wednesday while they are showing a 20-25 degree
difference on Thursday.

Cold front moves thru late week with chc showers and cooler
temps for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. Light W to SW winds tonight, becoming WNW and
increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 30 kt across the
north and 20-25 kt Downeast. LLWS is likely at northern
terminals later tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Sun night-Wed night...VFR. Light N winds Monday becoming WSW
5-10kts Tuesday.

Thursday...Mainly VFR though northern terminals may see MVFR
cigs in the afternoon. NNW 5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below advisory criteria
through Sunday. A few gusts to 25 kt are possible Sunday
afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds below SCA levels as stable air over the cold
waters settles in for the period. Seas generally 2-4 feet acrs
the waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Wednesday, May 31st temps will rival record highs:

FVE Fcst: 86 Record: 88 (2018)
CAR Fcst: 87 Record: 87 (2018)
HUL Fcst: 86 Record: 88 (2013)
MLT Fcst: 86 Record: 95 (1937)
BGR Fcst: 85 Record: 93 (1937)

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/MStrauser
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...CB/MStrauser/Buster
Marine...CB/MStrauser/Buster
Climate...Buster