Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 260404
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1204 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region overnight through
Tuesday then slide south of the region Wednesday. High pressure
will continue east Wednesday night into Thursday. A cold front
will move into the area late Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12:04 am update: A weak cold front has stalled out across the
Saint John Valley. The front will more or less dissipate across
far northern Maine overnight as high pressure begins to build
into the region from the west. There are low clouds and some
snow showers in the far north. These snow showers will come to
an end overnight with little/no add`l accumulation. Satellite
pictures do show some more clouds upstream in Quebec that could
move back across far northern portions of the FA early this
morning, but they should clear out by morning. The clouds will
likely have some impact on the low temperatures in the far
north. Elsewhere, it will be clear overnight with light wind.
Made some minor tweaks based on the latest satellite, radar,
and observations, but overall the ongoing forecast handles
things well.

Previous Discussion...
Tuesday will feature plenty of bright sunshine but continue to
be around 10 degrees below normal as the high builds in from the
west. The gradient will be slightly weaker than today,
especially aloft, so winds will not be as gusty.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure cresting southwest of the area will bring a clear
and cold night Wednesday night. Some patchy high clouds may
begin to push into northern areas late at night as an upper
level warm front approaches in the return flow behind high
pressure. After a cold start on Wednesday, temperatures
Wednesday afternoon will rebound to near normal as some milder
air begins to filter into the area on return southwesterly
breezes. The weak upper level warm front crossing the north will
bring a partly cloudy sky, to perhaps mostly cloudy over the far
north on Wednesday. Downeast will turn out mostly sunny.
Wednesday night will then be mostly clear and not as cold as the
gradient behind the departing high starts to increase. High
pressure moving well off to the east combined with a frontal
boundary approaching from the west will then bring increasing
southwesterly winds on Thursday channeling warmer air north
into our region. Temperatures Thursday afternoon should rebound
to around 10 degrees above normal as sunshine and the
southwesterly work to warm the air. Clouds will begin to
increase late Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold front quickly
approaching from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will push into the region Thursday night bringing a
band of rain and gusty southerly winds ahead of it. The showers
may mix with a bit of wet snow late Thursday night before
quickly moving off to the east Friday morning as the cold front
pushes through. High pressure will quickly build in behind the
front bringing a mostly sunny day with light winds on Friday.
Temperatures will be near or just above normal with the high
building in very quickly and therefore limiting cold air
advection ahead of it. This will be followed by a mostly clear
Friday evening before clouds begin to quickly increase ahead of
low pressure approaching from the upper Midwest. Rain will
spread into the area Saturday morning, possibly beginning as
some snow or sleet across the far north. The rain will continue
through Saturday as low pressure tracks through an elongated
frontal boundary over the east. A second low tracking along the
boundary is expected to track up to our northwest Saturday night
bringing a warm southerly wind and more rain and fog. The
combination of mild days at the end of this week and rain over
the weekend may produce some ice movement on the rivers and
potential risks for ice jams and localized flooding over the
weekend. A cold front will follow Sunday night bringing gusty
northwesterly winds and moderately cold weather into Monday as
drier air moves in.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Local MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with any snow
showers across mostly the Saint John Valley through the early
morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the
region overnight through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected through Thursday.
Conditions will likely drop to MVFR and possibly IFR in showers
and lower clouds Thursday night as a cold front moves through.
VFR conditions are likely Friday into early Saturday morning
before conditions drop to IFR in lower clouds and rain on
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels overnight through Tuesday. Light freezing spray
is possible late tonight.

SHORT TERM: North winds may gust up to 25 kt requiring a SCA
Tuesday night. Winds should be light Wednesday as high pressure
slides across the area. A SCA will likely be needed late
Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly reaching gale
Thursday, in southwesterly flow behind departing high pressure.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/CB
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Bloomer
Marine...Bloomer/CB/Bloomer


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