Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 040748
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
348 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region today into Sunday. A
weak frontal system will cross the area Sunday night. Weak high
pressure will then build back in Monday through Tuesday night
then move east on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A few scattered flurries will continue across mostly southern
Aroostook County early this morning. It is possible these
extend further south and west due to radar overshooting, but
automated surface obs have lacked reports outside of this
region. These are being generated by remaining moisture in the
lower levels amid convergence between departing low to the south
and high pressure approaches from the north. The moisture will
remain over the state today, causing partly to mostly cloudy
skies. Some additional clearing may be possible towards the
Bangor Region or Downeast as mixing is stronger here, but not
until late afternoon/evening.

High pressure moves overhead tonight with some flurries possible
in the higher elevations of the Central Highlands with cloudy
skies remaining in place into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sun begins fair, then clds will increase by aftn with a chc of
rn shwrs by eve, possibly ending as flurries across the N. Rnfl
amts look light, less than a tenth of an inch for most, but PoPs
are fcst to reach low likely across NE ptns of the FA by mid eve
before tapering off late Sun ngt.

Mon looks to be fair, but brisk with good wind gust mix down
potential from late morn in the aftn. Winds will diminish
somewhat Mon ngt, but still a light breeze, so not much in the
way of radiational cooling for low temps. Tue looks to fair with
lgt winds as weak Can sfc hi pres begins to crest ovr the FA
late in the day.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tue ngt also looks to fair, and with lgt and vrbl winds with
the sfc hi ovrhd, a better potential for radiational cooling ovr
N and Cntrl vly areas.

Clds then look to increase Wed morn ahead of a warm front with a
chc of lgt rn/sn N and rn Cntrl/Downeast by late aftn. Aftwrds,
even though somewhat unsettled conditions are suggested from Wed
ngt thru Fri by long range models, large model to model and run
to run differences between them do not allow us to pinpoint tmg
of most sig precip, or whether it will be all rn, or some rn-sn
combo. For now we keep PoPs in the chc range for stratiform
precip thru Thu, then for shwrs Thu ngt into Fri. We show the
typical nocturnal-diurnal trends of precip types typical for our
Rgn in early Apr, but if a more sig s/wv is adversed in later
model runs that results in sfc low pres tracking W of our FA, rn
can easily occur during the ngt hrs on Thu. To erly now to
determine.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sun...All TAF sites VFR with lgt winds.

Sun Ngt...All sites MVFR with msly rn shwrs and lgt winds.

Mon - Tue Ngt...all sites msly VFR. Brisk NW winds on Mon.

Wed...all sites lowering to MVFR by aftn in rn. Lgt winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly below SCA conditions. Went with a
blend of wv guidance models for fcst wv hts with two spectral wv
groups, a short fetch one with a 4 to 6 sec wv pd and a long
open Atlc background swell of 12 to 14 sec.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Surge and wave heights will decrease through this afternoon as
low pressure pulls south and east into the open Atlantic. Around
1 to 2 feet of surge is still anticipated surrounding this
morning`s high tide. Combined with a higher tide cycle, some
minor splashover or erosion is still anticipated for vulnerable
locations.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Cornwell
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Cornwell/VJN
Marine...Cornwell/VJN
Tides/Coastal Flooding...GC/VJN



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