221
FXUS61 KCAR 270148
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
948 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west tonight, then cross
the region through the weekend. High pressure then slowly exits
across the Maritimes early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
9:48 PM Update...Decided to cap shower PoPs at isolated for
tonight, as dry weather continues to prevail. Did not want to
get rid of PoPs entirely as there are still a few echoes on
radar. Otherwise, made minor tweaks to temperatures and winds to
reflect latest trends.

Previous Discussion... Surface high pressure will continue to
settle across the region tonight and Saturday. For tonight,
vorticity models show a weak vort max over the Central
Highlands. With the lift from the higher terrain and NW flow,
isolated showers are expected over the central region. These
will quickly dissipate with the loss of heating and upper level
support. Temps will be in the low to mid 50s with clear skies
and light wind. By Saturday, surface high pressure will remain
in the area while the upper level trof becomes a closed low.
This will keep high temps in the low 80s for the day with light
SW winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The weather will be quiet for the end of the weekend through
the early part of next week, as high pressure remains overhead.
Temperatures are expected to be on the warm side, but not
anomalously warm with 500 hPa heights in the 580s. Skies will
remain mostly clear through the weekend, with some uncertainty
on Monday as a cutoff low potentially moves northward over the
region. Although the low will still be approaching on Monday,
upper level clouds may increase ahead of the main low, which
would decrease daytime temperatures. Therefore, a little more
spread in the model solutions exist for high temps in particular
on Monday. Chose to go with the NBM for temperatures today, but
this solution is a little warmer for daytime highs and a little
lower for nighttime lows, so temps may moderate as we move
forward in time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Monday night, the low pressure system to our south will
finally shift into a location where it begins to affect the
weather across the area. As winds become more southerly,
increasingly warm moist air will move over the region,
increasing the chances for fog over the waters starting Tuesday
morning. On Tuesday, showers will spread across the area as the
pattern becomes more unsettled for the rest of the week. On
Wednesday, a more significant trough will approach from the
west, bringing periods of heavier precipitation through Friday.
The best chances for thunderstorms this week will be on
Thursday and Friday since the upper level support will be more
robust with the western trough. Temperatures will continue to
rise through the week with southwesterly winds ahead of the
trough, reaching the mid to upper 80s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions for tonight and Saturday. Low
chance of IFR or lower towards daybreak at Aroostook Terminals
with BCFG. Not enough confidence to include in 00z TAFs. Light
and variable winds for tonight and Saturday.


SHORT TERM:

Saturday night through Monday night...VFR. Variable winds 5 to
10 knots Saturday through Saturday night. South/southwest winds
5 to 10 knots Sunday through Monday night.

Tuesday...Variable conditions with any fog early. Otherwise,
generally VFR. Possible MVFR in the afternoon in showers. South
winds 10 to 15 knots.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Possible IFR in fog overnight,
primarily at southern TAFs. VFR tempo MVFR during the day in
showers and possible thunderstorms. South winds 10 to 15kts
becoming southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for
tonight and Saturday.


SHORT TERM:
Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions through the
period. Potential for marine fog increases beginning Tuesday
morning through the end of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through
     Saturday evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark/LaFlash
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Clark/LaFlash/LF
Marine...Clark/LaFlash/LF