Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCAR 240317
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1117 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west on Monday and crest
over the area Tuesday into Wednesday. A warm front will lift
northward through the area Thursday into Friday. A cold front
will cross the area Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11:15 PM Update...Forecast remains on track. Thin high clouds
cover the area so went "mostly clear" overnight. Adjusted temps
down a bit on the NW and up Downeast early in the overnight
period. Otherwise, no major changes this hour.

previous discussion
Nrly winds will begin to diminish with ridge axis sneaking into
nwrn areas aft midnight. This will bring clearing skies and
near calm winds to the northwest which wl set up prime radn`l
cooling conds. At this time it appears areas to the north of
Katahdin will dip into the l/m 30s late tonight thru daybreak
tomorrow. The deeper valleys may see temps falling into the
u20s. This wl set the stage for widespread frost acrs the north.
Will continue Frost Advisory for NE Aroostook and expand it
south into sern Aroostook btwn 6 and 10am Tue morning. People
elsewhere acrs the north should be prepared for frost/freeze
conditions and take extra precautions to protect plants and
tender vegetation.

Skies will start off clear across the north in the morning with
perhaps some clouds skirting thru Downeast fm the east as low-lvl
easterly flow expected over these areas thru mid-morning. As sun
rises, expect that low-level moisture will quickly erode, leading to
a mosunny day acrs the south late morning into the afternoon. High
clouds wl then move into the north in the afternoon as a weak wave
moves thru in zonal flow. Do not expect this wl have much of an
impact on temps acrs the north as it wl likely be just some thin
cirrus but temps over the north are fcst to rise into the l/m60s by
aftn while interior Downeast areas approach 70 degrees in
offshore flow. Coastal areas likely to be in the m/u 50s as
seabreeze kicks in drg the aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the forecast area through mid-
week. The subsidence from this feature will keep skies mostly
clear across the north during the day on Wednesday, while clouds
hold on near the coast due to the persistent marine layer
providing plenty of moisture under the subsidence. Low temps
Tuesday night will sit around average, while high temperatures
on Wednesday will rise to slightly above average due to
southwesterly flow in place in addition to mostly clear skies.

A warm front will lift northward into our area on Thursday,
bringing the next chance for rain with the greatest chance for
rain across the north. Winds will shift to southerly flow as the
forecast area enters the warm sector at this time, and more
moisture will pull in aloft leading to increased cloud cover
into the later part of the week. As rain showers move in,
high temperatures will cool to or just below average on
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Southerly flow in the warm sector of a low pressure to the north
will lead to increased low level moisture, especially near the
coast. Patchy to areas of fog are possible early Friday morning
due to this moisture and resident marine layer.

As a surface low pressure continues to slowly track to the north
of the state through the end of the week, a cold front will
drape across the forecast area. Timing remains uncertain for the
passage of this cold front, with deterministic guidance split
anywhere from Friday night through Saturday evening. The
ensemble mean for both the Euro and GEFS lean towards Friday
evening into early Saturday morning for the FROPA. The NBM
indicates the same. Surface low placement from the EPS and GEFS
is fairly well clustered, thus the current forecast leans
towards a FROPA early Saturday morning. Little in the way is
expected for thunder with this front due to the overnight
timing, however have included the slight chance for thunder
along the western border Friday afternoon just ahead of the
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. NW winds diminish to near 5kts
with sunset and become nerly during the morning.

SHORT TERM:
Tues night - Wed night: VFR across all terminals. Winds light
and variable, increasing to 5 to 10 kts out of the SW Wed
afternoon, then becoming light again Wed night.

Thurs: VFR, becoming MVFR from KHUL north as rain moves in from
the west. Winds S at 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts near the
coast.

Thurs night - Fri: Ceilings falling to MVFR across all terminals
with rain showers across the area. IFR fog possible at BGR/BHB
late Thurs night into early Fri morning. Winds S at 5 to 10
kts, with gusts increasing to 20 to 25 kts Fri afternoon along
the coast.

Fri night - Sat: Generally MVFR ceilings across the area with
rain showers. Fog possible along the coast early Sat morning.
Winds S at 5 to 10 kts, shifting W Sat afternoon while gusts
increase to 15 to 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be well below SCA levels tonight
through the day on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through
mid-week. Gusts will increase towards advisory levels on
Thursday as a low pressure passes to the north of the waters.
Seas will follow suit Thursday night, and advisory conditions
will likely persist through the rest of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ002-006.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...TWD/Buster/MCB
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...TWD/Buster/AStrauser
Marine...TWD/Buster/AStrauser


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.