Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCAR 261518
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1118 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front is crossing the area this morning, and will be
followed by a cold front late today. A secondary cold front will
cross the area Monday followed by high pressure on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:20 AM Update...Sky and pops remain on target this hour.
However, temps in eastern areas under the low stratus and
drizzle remain cool so adjusted mainly temps across the east and
north.

Previous Discussion...
The rain will taper off from west to east by mid-morning.
However, with a fairly moist onshore flow in place, don`t expect
much if any clearing today except perhaps north/west of the
mountains into the North Woods.

Attention then turns to afternoon convection as a cold front
approaches from the west. West of Bangor and into Quebec there
will be a fair amount of CAPE up to about 1000 J/kg with
surface-based convection firing just ahead of the cold front.
Storms move into Moosehead Lake region around midday then
progress east early and mid afternoon. However, while the storms
will be surface-based around Moosehead Lake, as they move east
into the more stable marine layer, they will weaken. They could
hold together to places like Bangor and Caribou, but will fall
apart as they head further east toward Eastport. Although most
places will get wet from the showers and storms this afternoon,
some places may stay dry from the hit and miss convection, and
it doesn`t look like an all-afternoon event for those with
outdoor plans.

Cold front moving through late afternoon and evening will
gradually dry things out with some clearing late in the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will approach from the northwest early in the day
on Monday and move across the region during the afternoon. This
system is expected to produce some showers across the area as it
moves through. High pressure will build in behind the cold front
Monday Night and crest over the region early Tuesday. Expect
mostly sunny conditions on Tuesday. Clouds are expected to
increase Tuesday Night as a warm front approaches with rain
overspreading the region ahead of the warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rain is expected on Wednesday and Thursday as an area of low
pressure moves from west to east along the warm front. Another
cold front is then expected to move across the area on Friday
with more showers expected. High pressure is then expected to
build in from the west on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally IFR in low clouds and rain as of 6am.
Though the steadier rain is tapering off from west to east,
still will only be slow improvement to ceilings through the
morning, with IFR slowly improving to MVFR late morning into
early afternoon except perhaps VFR north/west of the mountains
including places like KGNR. Possibility of storms in the early
to mid afternoon, with the best shot being KGNR and KBGR.
Improving to VFR this evening and overnight as cold front moves
through and atmosphere dries out.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected on Monday and Tuesday.
MVFR/IFR conditions are then expected Tuesday Night through
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small craft advisory in effect this morning with a
warm front moving through. Looks very marginal with conditions
only barely reaching small craft levels, then improving back
below small craft this afternoon and tonight.


SHORT TERM: Have used the Nam to initialize winds however will
reduce model winds by 15 percent due to cold sea surface
temperatures (Mid 40s). Expect southerly wind wave becoming
northwesterly, is expected to be the primary wave system on
Monday. Southerly wind wave will develop again on Tuesday. A
southeasterly fetch will develop across the Gulf of Maine on
Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Foisy/Hewitt/Bloomer
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...Foisy/Hewitt/Mignone
Marine...Foisy/Hewitt/Mignone


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.