Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 240438
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1238 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region through this evening. Cool
Canadian high pressure will build in behind the front tonight
and Monday then move east Tuesday. Low pressure will track
northwest of Maine Wednesday drawing a cold front across the
region Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1235 AM Update... Clear skies and light winds have allowed
temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s north of
the Katahdin region. It`s a different story across central and
downeast where post frontal cloud band and a northeast wind is
keeping temperatures up as it was still in the mid to upper 40s
from Millinocket southward through the downeast coast. Haven`t
made any significant adjustments to overnight lows where the
current frost/freeze headlines are in effect. However, we may be
able to cancel these headlines on the next regularly scheduled
forecast update. Will monitor latest temperature trends over the
next few hours.

Previous Discussion: The cold front is expected to be dry as it
finishes crossing the area this evening, but lingering clouds
and winds will slow cooling towards Bangor and the Down East
region. This cold front is bringing the coldest air of the
season to date. Radiational cooling and decoupling will occur
towards NW Aroostook County where lows could dip towards 20F and
a hard freeze will occur for most of Aroostook County as well
as northern Piscataquis County and northern Penobscot County.
Record lows for tonight of 27F at Caribou and 25F at Houlton
will be approached. A Freeze Warning will be issued for northern
Penobscot County and central Piscataquis County towards
Greenville and Monson. The buffer area will be southern
Piscataquis County, south/central Penobscot County, and
north/central Washington County. These areas will have winds and
clouds until later in the night, but cooling in the last few
hours of the night into the low to mid 30s prompts a Frost
Advisory. Along coastal Hancock and Washington counties, the
cold air and decreasing winds won`t occur in time and the frost
will have to wait until Monday night. The powerful 1040mb high
will provide a sunny Monday with light winds, but temperatures
will only recover into the low to mid 50s for most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will begin to exit eastward Monday night. Mostly
clear skies and light winds will allow favorable conditions for
radiational cooling Monday night, with sub-freezing temperatures
across northern areas and frost possible to the Downeast coast.
High pressure exits across the maritimes Tuesday, with a warm
front approaching later Tuesday through Tuesday night. Cloud
cover will increase Tuesday. Rain chances will also increase,
from west to east, through Tuesday afternoon. Rain is expected
across the entire region Tuesday night. The warm front will
cross the region early Wednesday, with a cold front approaching
northwest areas late. Moisture increases in advance of the cold
front Wednesday, with rain persisting. The better chances of
rain will occur across northern areas during the afternoon in
advance of the cold front. Rainfall totals are still uncertain,
though amounts between 0.50 and 1.00 inch should be common
across much of the region with locally greater values possible.
Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are
expected Tuesday. Slightly above normal level temperatures are
expected Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will cross the region Wednesday night with rain
in advance of the front. High pressure will then begin to build
toward the region late. High pressure is expected Thursday. A
cold front is expected to cross the region later Friday into
Saturday with a chance of showers in advance of the front,
though the exact timing of the front is still uncertain. High
pressure will cross the region in the wake of the cold front.
Another cold front could cross the region Sunday with a slight
chance of showers. Near normal level temperatures are expected
Thursday through Saturday, with below normal level temperatures
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 1235 AM Update... VFR conditions are expected with
no cigs on Monday and excellent vis.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Monday night through
early Tuesday, with conditions lowering to MVFR levels later
Tuesday. Generally IFR/LIFR conditions are expected Tuesday
night into Wednesday night, with improving conditions later
Wednesday night. VFR conditions are expected Thursday through
early Friday, with MVFR conditions possible later Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The Small Craft Advisory continues to look good for
tonight into early Monday morning with wind gusts to 30 kts.
Not looking for much response from seas as they`ll stay less
than 4 feet. Seas and winds will diminish Monday afternoon as a
strong high pressure system settles over the waters.

SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels Monday night through early Tuesday. Small craft
advisory conditions are then expected later Tuesday through
Wednesday. Visibilities will be reduced in rain and fog later
Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ011-015>017-
     031-032.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ005-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Dumont
Short Term...
Long Term...
Aviation...Duda/Dumont/
Marine...Duda/Dumont/


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