Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 240431
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1131 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track west of the area overnight. A secondary
low will form over the area Thursday and track northeast into
the Maritimes Thursday night.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Update...
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect across much of the
region, with the exception of the Downeast coast, overnight.
Low pressure tracking northeast across Quebec province will draw
a warm front north across the region overnight. The warm front
remains stalled across Downeast areas, which will eventually
begin to lift north across the region overnight approaching the
Saint John Valley late. Warmer air will expand north across the
region overnight. Precipitation will remain in the form of rain
along the Downeast coast. Across interior Downeast areas, a
wintry mix will transition to rain through the early morning
hours. The transition to rain will then begin to reach central
areas late. Across northern areas, snow will transition to a
wintry mix overnight. Total snow accumulations across northern
areas will range from 3 to 5 inches, with 1 to 3 inches across
central areas with an inch or less interior Downeast. Ice
accumulations across the region are expected to be a tenth of an
inch or less. Temperatures will warm through the night. Have
updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with
overnight temperatures and precipitation transitions.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure will pass to the west of New England tonight. A
secondary low pressure system will develop over southwestern
New England Thursday then move northeastward across Maine
Thursday afternoon. Warm air advection ahead of both of these
systems will cause snow to change to rain and mixed
precipitation from south to north across the region tonight. In
the north the change over is expected to occur after midnight. A
wintry mix will transition to rain across northern areas early
Thursday, with rain persisting across the remainder of the
region. Road surfaces are very cold and may remain below
freezing until Thursday morning. For snow accumulation have used
the snow ratio grids.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc low wl mv into CWA Thu evng as pattern rmns active. Arctic bndry
wl mv thru drg the nighttime hrs with steady snow winding down aft
06z to snow showers as low mvs into the Maritimes Fri mrng. Only
minor accums can be expected ovr the St. John Vly on Thu night.
Parameters not pointing to any concern regarding snow squalls along
the bndry on Thur night. As temps plummet ovrngt expect that any
standing water on roads wl freeze leading to a slick commute on Fri
morning.

Active pattern rmns in place thru the end of the pd with a
brief weak system mvg thru the north on Fri aftn and Fri night.
Accums wl once again be < 1 inch north of the Katahdin Region
into Sat mrng. High pres builds in fm the west Sat aftn with
skies bcmg psunny. Highs wl be in the single digits acrs the
north and arnd 20 for Downeast on Sat.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
May see more snow dvlpng Sun mrng expanding ovr the CWA drg the day.
Not necessarily a true Norlun type of event, tho 12z GFS is hinting
as such. Cdfnt wl mv thru Mon mrng with lingering snow showers on
Mon. Hipres expected again on Tue with yet another system expected
to mv in fm the west on Tue aftn.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally IFR/LIFR conditions are expected across
northern areas overnight through Thursday. Across Downeast
areas, MVFR/IFR conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels
overnight with similar conditions then persisting Thursday. Rain
is expected along the Downeast coast overnight through
Thursday. A wintry mix across interior Downeast and central
areas will transition to rain overnight. Across northern areas,
snow will transition to a wintry mix overnight then to rain
early Thursday. Low level wind shear will develop across
Downeast areas later tonight then persist Thursday, extending to
KHUL Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM: IFR Thur night improving to VFR in the evng at BGR
and BHB with gradual improvement across nrn terminals after
midnight. VFR then expected all terminals for a time on Fri
before diminishing in the afternoon across the north late
afternoon and Fri night. VFR then expected all terminals on Sat
under high pressure. MVFR/IFR restrictions expected Sun and Sun
night with improvement possible on Monday afternoon.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Storm Warning remains in effect for the waters
Thursday. Winds will increase to gale levels overnight.
Visibilities will be reduced in rain and fog overnight into
Thursday. A strong low level jet is expected across the waters
on Thursday. Will use the Nam to initialize winds. A strong
southerly fetch is expected to develop across the Gulf of Maine
on Wednesday into Thursday with wave heights building to around
20 feet/10-11 seconds Late Thursday. The fetch will be broken up
by the wind shift into the southwest Thursday Evening with wave
heights subsiding Thursday night into Friday. Total Water
Level: The ESTOFS storm surge is greater then the ETSS in
southerly flow on Thursday. Will favor the higher ESTOFS (+1.25
feet in bay areas) however a southwesterly wind direction would
favor a lower surge number due to the coriolis component. Will
keep the Base Tide Anomaly at +0.50/0.040 feet for Thursday.
Will keep close eye on surface wind speeds Thursday morning as
high tide approaches.

SHORT TERM: Wind drop to gale conditions Thur night with SCA
level winds lingering into Fri morning. Seas remain above 10
feet into Fri morning, remaining above SCA levels into the day
on Sat. Winds diminish as high pressure builds in Sat morning.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong southerly winds are expected Thursday afternoon into the
early evening. High tide is around 12:45 PM and the astronomical
tide is near the highest levels of the month. Storm surge models
indicate that the maximum surge will occur later in the
afternoon. In addition the largest waves are not expected until
late afternoon and early evening. Therefore only minimum tidal
flooding and overtopping is expected at this time. We will
therefore issue a coastal flood statement.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for
     MEZ001>006-010.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MEZ011-
     015>017-031-032.
     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM EST Thursday for MEZ016-017-
     029-030.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM EST Thursday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross/Mignone
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Norcross/Farrar
Marine...Norcross/Mignone/Farrar
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Mignone


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