Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
462 FXUS61 KCAR 121815 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 215 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. An isolated strong storm is possible Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. An isolated strong storm is possible Thursday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Several waves of upper level energy embedded within a larger scale trough are expected to pass through our area through Friday, the most potent of which will be on Thursday. This should lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms each day, the strongest and most widespread of which will be on Thursday. Short instability profiles today should limit lightning potential but deeper instability Thursday should favor more lightning. Some modest instability of 500-1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear of up to 30 kts, and steep low-level lapse rates means a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, especially if storms form clusters. The main threat in any strong storm would be gusty winds. The scattered nature of these storms means the area is not likely to see a widespread wetting rainfall that could help with the drought. By 00z Friday, the initial cold front will be moving offshore with upr trof beginning to move east into Canada and precip winding down thru midnight. Outside of isolated showers for Friday afternoon with the H5 trof crossing the area the rain will have come to an end. High pressure builds in for the weekend and will continue to worsen the ongoing dry/drought conditions. D0-D1 conditions are present in southern and eastern areas of the CWA. Much of the streamflows across the CWA are Below to Much Below Normal for this time of year along with Groundwater wells rapidly falling to below normal to low end normal conditions. Lack of significant widespread rainfall will result in worsening conditions in terms of the drought. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Rest of Today...Potential for VCTS at northern terminals this evening. Roughly a 20-25 percent chance of a thunderstorm moving over KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL. Otherwise, VFR at southern terminals. W/NW winds at 5-10 kts, with gusts 15-20 kts possible. Tonight...Mainly VFR. Light W winds. Thursday...MVFR/IFR in showers and storms at all terminals. Rain showers in the morning, with the best chance of thunderstorms beginning in the afternoon/evening. W/SW winds 5-10kts. Thursday night-Friday...MVFR, possible IFR, in showers and an isolated storm. W winds 5kts, becoming NW 5-15kts on Friday with gusts 20-25kts in the afternoon. Friday night-Saturday...VFR. NW winds 10-20kts. Saturday night-Sunday...VFR, possible MVFR in showers late. Light winds become SW 5kts Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... Winds and seas below small craft advisory criteria through Thursday on all waters. Seas around 2 ft with wind gusts 15 kts or less. Winds remain aob 25kts and seas remain between 2-4 feet through the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JS AVIATION...ASB