Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 142106 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 406 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west tonight and crest over the area Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Thursday night into Friday then track into the Canadian Maritimes Friday night. Cold with scattered snow showers this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Our plan is to drop the current wind adv for our FA with the trend of winds xpctd to be gradually, but steadily downward going into the eve hrs. Otherwise, SC cld cvr and sct flurries should will gradually diminish across the N into the eve with patchy blsn across the far N also msly dissipating by mid eve. Even though winds diminish by late ngt, there should still be enough of a breeze durg the late ngt hrs to prevent much of radiational cooling xcpt across most protected NW vlys by daybreak, keeping low temps from potentially reaching exceptionally low values given the sn pack and the caliber of the air mass. Thu should begin fair with much lgtr winds as sfc hi pres crests the FA from the W, with increasing hi cldnss from SSW to NNE late in the day in advc of the next low pres system from the SE states. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Storm still on track for Friday with no significant change in guidance over the last 12 hours. Still enough spread to greatly impact the sensible weather in regards to total snowfall, especially on the coast and across the far Northern Maine. Essentially if the the further off the coast solution comes in (GFS) camp, then the Downeast coast will get more snow then forecasted. If the consensus forecast comes in, then still looks like a mix on the Downeast coast cutting down totals with higher amounts pushing further north into Maine. One thing that is certain is it looks like the first plowable snow for the Bangor region and the majority of Downeast with the Friday morning commute being impacted by snow. Low quickly pushes out Friday evening, with lingering snow across Northern Maine until midnight. Saturday will have weak cyclonic flow aloft over the area with some light snow shower activity for western areas and high temps getting into the upper 20s and 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast Confidence looks to be below average late this weekend leading into Thanksgiving week. What we are confident about is that this period will have well below avg temperatures with a few shots of cold weather. In general the mean 500mb trough will stay entrenched across the Northeast CONUS with multiple 500mb shortwaves moving through with weak waves developing on the surface cold fronts. In general western mountains will keep light snow shower activity at times through this period. Overall didn`t feel enough confidence on timing of pops, so broad brushed with some higher pops over the terrain and on Monday as the potential for another weak storm still exists. Overall we should run 10 to 15 degrees below average for this period, with the chance for a slight warm up on Monday. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR, xcpt MVFR vsbys attms with blsn and sct flurries across Nrn most TAF sites until erly eve. SHORT TERM: Significant aviation impacts possible on Friday with snow causing low vis and ceilings to impact all TAF Terminals. Conditions will improve by Friday night with no significant aviation impacts expected this weekend. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will cont with gale wrng or all of coastal waters til just aft mdngt, with a follow-up SCA likely needed late tngt into erly Thu morn. A pd of less than SCA winds/seas will follow for late Thu morn thru the aftn. Went with a blend of NWPS/WW3 guidance for fcst wv hts this update. SHORT TERM: Possible GALE conditions on Friday as a coastal low moves up the coast and crosses the Gulf of Maine during the day on Friday. Seas will build to 10 feet over the outer coastal waters on a E to NE wind. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through late Friday night for MEZ004>006-010-011-015>017-031-032. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Dumont Long Term...Dumont Aviation...VJN/Dumont Marine...VJN/Dumont

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