Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241802 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 202 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push offshore tonight. High pressure will build down from the northwest Monday into Tuesday then crest over the area Tuesday night. High pressure will slide east of the area Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... The Arctic cold front cross the area will push south this evening and reach the coast around midnight. Some flurries and scattered snow showers may continue to be along the front, across central areas early this evening and further Downeast later in the evening before the front pushes offshore late tonight. Arctic high pressure building in from the northwest will push much colder and drier air across the region later tonight into Monday. Westerly winds are expected to be strong aloft on Monday and forecast soundings show the mixing layer reaching almost 10K ft late in the afternoon. Sustained winds will be 40 to 45 kt at that level. This will result in some strong wind gusts across the area with the strongest gusts likely during the mid to late afternoon when the deep mixing pulls momentum from the upper winds down to the surface. The sky will be mostly clear Downeast. However, the north will be partly cloudy where some moisture in the longwave trough aloft will produce cumulus clouds. A few flurries can`t be ruled out during the afternoon across the north. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A low pressure system exiting over the Canadian Maritimes will leave a few lingering showers across Northern Maine at the start of the period. Higher pressure will build across early in the period and will dominate the weather through the end of the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Used NWPSCG1CAR for seas in the coastal waters. Used Wind gust by factor through 12z added 15 kts to wnds for gusts, used GYX Wnd Gust tool for Gust for the remainder of short term. Used GFS for QPF. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A high pressure ridge southeast of Maine will continue to move east as a low southwest of James Bay will with its associated front will move toward Maine reaching northwest Maine by Thursday evening. The front will move through the state Friday evening, but will move back across southern Maine as a warm front early Saturday morning. The system will finally clear the area Sunday afternoon. Higher pressure will build into western Maine Sunday afternoon and will dominate the weather through the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the ECMWF solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected tonight through Monday with the exception of any snow showers, mostly over central and Downeast areas this evening. Gusty winds on Monday may result in some turbulent conditions. SHORT TERM: A few lingerings showers over FVE and CAR with MVFR conditions early, otherwise VFR all sites through Wednesday morning. MVFR with shower across FVE Wednesday morning, VFR elsewhere. Low MVFR conditions conditions move into Maine from northwest to southeast Thursday afternoon as a cold frontal system moves into the state and will transit through Thursday night through Friday morning, conditions improving to VFR by Friday afternoon as the frontal system moves exits the region. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds should drop below SCA this evening as the front approaches. Another SCA will likely be needed for gusty winds Monday afternoon. SHORT TERM: High pressure will dominate the waters through most of the period. Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory for seas may be required for Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...Bloomer/Norton Marine...Bloomer/Norton

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