Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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877 FXUS61 KCAR 070314 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1014 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track across the Gulf of Maine tonight. High pressure will build across the region later Saturday through Sunday. A warm front will cross the region later Sunday night through early Monday. Low pressure will track northwest of the region Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 930 PM Update: Latest radar ref imagery already indicating a break down of lgt stratiform snfl alg the immediate Downeast coast as the clipper sfc low and s/wv tracking well S of our FA weakens. Most if not all of snfl ovr this area will end by or shortly after mdngt. Otherwise, trends seen latest obsvd sfc temps/dwpts were used to update hrly fcst values of each into the late ngt with reductions to fcst ovrngt low temps made ovr some Nrn vly lctns due to thin cld cvr allowing sfc radiational cooling with sig sfc based invsns. Uncertainty exists in how long sfc base invsns ovr these areas will hold with grad sfc winds xpctd to increase somewhat late tngt as the sfc pres grad tightens and llvl cold advcn increases behind the clipper s/wv alf. Orgnl Disc: Right as low is exiting, winds come around to the NW. Low temps in the north fall to the single digits, with upper teens along portions of the coast. Snow showers will diminish by morning as rear of mid-level jet passes through. The exiting low pressure lifts east of Nova Scotia, surface high pressure will build in NW flow. Temps in most locations on Sat cooler in the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will cross the region Saturday night with decreasing clouds north, mostly clear skies Downeast. High pressure exits to the east Sunday with a mostly sunny morning then increasing clouds during the afternoon. A cold front will extend from the Great Lakes across central Quebec province Sunday night, with a warm front crossing the region later Sunday night through early Monday. Expect a chance of snow north, with a slight chance of snow/rain Downeast, Sunday night with the warm front. The cold front will remain nearly stationary Monday while low pressure intensifies along the front across the Great Lakes and tracks northeast. Warmer air will steadily move north across the region Monday. Across Downeast areas a brief rain/snow mix is possible early Monday, though precipitation will be mostly in the form of rain. The snow will transition to rain, from south to north, across the remainder of the region through the morning into early afternoon. A brief interval of sleet or freezing rain is possible across northern areas during the transition. Generally expect snow accumulations up to around an inch across much of northern Maine before the transition to rain, with 1 to 2 inches possible across the Saint John Valley. A slower transition to rain could allow slightly greater snow accumulations. Precipitation should be in the form of rain across the entire region by mid afternoon. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Sunday. Low temperatures Sunday night will occur early, then begin to warm overnight. Temperatures will warm to above normal levels Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The low will track northeast along the cold front, across Quebec province, Monday night through Tuesday with warm advection persisting across the forecast area. Temperatures will be near steady Monday night. Precipitation will remain in the form of rain Monday night through Tuesday along with melting of the snowpack. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday. The steadier precipitation will exit across the Maritimes in advance of the cold front. Any lingering precipitation will transition back to snow or snow showers following the cold front. An upper level trof will approach from the west Wednesday then cross the region Wednesday night through early Thursday. A disturbance moving through the trof could bring a chance of light snow or snow showers later Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure should build across the region Thursday, then exit to the east Friday. An upper level disturbance/surface trof could bring a chance of snow showers Friday. Temperatures will be at much above normal levels Tuesday. Temperatures will fall Wednesday following the cold front, with much below normal level temperatures Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR across the north tonight with west winds continuing, but decreasing. BGR and BHB will see snow showers this evening and overnight. Expect MVFR in these showers, with possible IFR at BHB. Winds light and from the WNW. SHORT TERM: Saturday night...VFR. Sunday...Generally VFR. MVFR possible late across northern areas. Sunday night...VFR/MVFR early. Lowering to IFR/LIFR overnight with a chance of snow north and a chance of snow and rain Downeast. Monday...IFR/LIFR. Precipitation changing to rain from south to north through early afternoon. Gusty south winds. Tuesday...IFR/LIFR with rain. Gusty south winds. Tuesday night...IFR/LIFR with rain and gusty south/southwest winds in advance of a cold front. The cold front crosses much of the region Tuesday night with precipitation transitioning to snow or snow showers following the front. Wednesday...The cold front exits across the remainder of the region early Wednesday. IFR/LIFR early, then MVFR/IFR during the afternoon. Snow or snow showers following the cold front. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA has been extended a few hours into Saturday morning as wind gusts remain at or above SCA criteria, 25kts. Waves will remain about 2 to 4 feet through this period. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions possible early Saturday night. Conditions briefly below small craft advisory levels later Saturday night through early Sunday, with small craft advisory conditions then developing later Sunday. Gale force wind gusts are possible Sunday night into Monday. Visibilities will be reduced in rain Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.