National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 181909
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
309 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will push south across the area this evening. High
pressure will build in from the west Tuesday into Tuesday night
then move south of the area on Wednesday. A cold front will
press into the north Wednesday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure north of the area will track east into the
Maritimes this evening as a cold front pushes in from the north.
The cold front will produce a line of showers and thunderstorms
as it moves south through the area this evening. The air mass in
the warm sector is very moist with precipitable water near 1.75
inches. Any thunderstorms may produce heavy rain and gusty
winds this evening. However, warm and humid air ahead of the
front has had a hard time working into our area due to
persistent low stratus and a line of showers along the
southwestern edge of the region through the day. Most of the
convection along the front will likely be supported by elevated
cape. However, given the strong winds aloft and the saturated
soundings, some gusty winds and heavy downpours are still
possible and will remain in the forecast. The line of showers
and thunderstorms will push down to the coast around midnight
and offshore after midnight. High pressure approaching from the
west will bring cooler and drier air into the region later
tonight into Tuesday. This will bring a mostly sunny and
seasonable day on Tuesday with a light northwesterly breeze
followed by a mostly clear night Tuesday night as high pressure
drops to our south.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fast moving cold front for Wednesday and then some cooler temps
expected for Thursday.

The cold front is forecast to move across the region Wednesday
afternoon into the evening. The GFS and ECMWF match up well
w/the timing and slower it down by 3 hrs from the previous runs.
The 12Z NAM supports this scenario as well as does the Canadian
model. Showers appear to be the main wx element as deep moisture
appears limited above 750 mbs. CAPE potential is not overly
impressive w/MU CAPE maxing out around 600 joules. There is
shear available around 30 kts along w/llvl convergence along the
front. Attm, confidence is low and given the lack of deep
moisture being available, decided to stay w/the midnight crew`s
thinking of keeping the mentions of tstms out of this forecast
package. Some stronger wind gusts are possible w/the cold
frontal pass. Therefore, decided to increase the wind gusts for
Wednesday afternoon into early evening. Rainfall amounts will
generally be light averaging about 0.10" or less. The ECMWF
looked to be to wet w/its latest rainfall amounts and therefore
used a blend of the guidance minus the ECMWF for the amounts.
Daytime temps on Wednesday are expected to reach well into the
70s w/some sites across central and Downeast hitting around 80F.

The front will clear the region Wednesday night w/some clearing
taking place. High pres begins to build into the region from
Canada on Thursday. There does look like a gradient holds
through midday Thursday allowing for a winds to be up at 10-15
mph w/gust potential to 20+ mph. Winds are forecast to drop off
fairly quickly later Thursday afternoon as the high pushes
further east. Chilly day on Thursday w/daytime temps running
5-10 degrees below average.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Much colder Thursday night w/some areas seeing temps dropping
into the upper 30s. This will be mainly for low lying areas.
Friday will continue on the dry side and warmer as winds become
sw in the afternoon allowing for warmer air to be pulled
northward. Daytime temps will rebound back into the 70s and
possibly lower 80s. Continued dry for Saturday and even a bit
warmer as temps could very top 80F in the afternoon.

The long range guidance including the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian
Global show a frontal system apchg the region from the west
Saturday night w/some low clouds and pre-frontal showers
breaking out. The best chance for any showers will be across the
w and sw areas. Sunday appears to be rather mild and possibly
more humid w/some showers and the potential for some tstms.
Since it is 6-7 days out, decided to not include any mention of
tstms attm. There is still plenty of time to assess the
convective potential.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: MVFR to IFR conditions in variable low clouds and
showers will improve to VFR from north to south late tonight
into early Tuesday morning following the cold frontal passage.
VFR conditions are then expected across the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM: MVFR mainly northern sites Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. Wind gusts to 30 kts possible w/the cold front.
Otherwise, VFR expected for all terminals into Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: A SCA will continue through late tonight for
southwesterly winds gusting up to 25 kt over the offshore
waters. Winds should drop below SCA following the cold front
early Tuesday morning and remain below SCA through Tuesday
night. Humid air over the waters will produce fog and mist
reducing visibilities tonight ahead of the front. Seas will be
up to 8 ft tonight over the offshore waters in response to the
wind, but should decrease early Tuesday morning and drop below
5 ft by late Tuesday morning.


SHORT TERM: No headlines expected through this term. SW winds
gusting to 20 kts are possible w/the front Wednesday afternoon
into early evening. Seas are forecast to reach near 4 ft and
that should hold. WNW winds behind the front Wednesday night
into Thursday will allow for seas to be knocked down to 3 ft.
Rather quiet conditions right into the early part of the weekend
w/winds around 10 kts and seas around 3 ft.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051.


&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Bloomer/Hewitt
Marine...Bloomer/Hewitt