Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181909 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 309 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push south across the area this evening. High pressure will build in from the west Tuesday into Tuesday night then move south of the area on Wednesday. A cold front will press into the north Wednesday afternoon.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Low pressure north of the area will track east into the Maritimes this evening as a cold front pushes in from the north. The cold front will produce a line of showers and thunderstorms as it moves south through the area this evening. The air mass in the warm sector is very moist with precipitable water near 1.75 inches. Any thunderstorms may produce heavy rain and gusty winds this evening. However, warm and humid air ahead of the front has had a hard time working into our area due to persistent low stratus and a line of showers along the southwestern edge of the region through the day. Most of the convection along the front will likely be supported by elevated cape. However, given the strong winds aloft and the saturated soundings, some gusty winds and heavy downpours are still possible and will remain in the forecast. The line of showers and thunderstorms will push down to the coast around midnight and offshore after midnight. High pressure approaching from the west will bring cooler and drier air into the region later tonight into Tuesday. This will bring a mostly sunny and seasonable day on Tuesday with a light northwesterly breeze followed by a mostly clear night Tuesday night as high pressure drops to our south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Fast moving cold front for Wednesday and then some cooler temps expected for Thursday. The cold front is forecast to move across the region Wednesday afternoon into the evening. The GFS and ECMWF match up well w/the timing and slower it down by 3 hrs from the previous runs. The 12Z NAM supports this scenario as well as does the Canadian model. Showers appear to be the main wx element as deep moisture appears limited above 750 mbs. CAPE potential is not overly impressive w/MU CAPE maxing out around 600 joules. There is shear available around 30 kts along w/llvl convergence along the front. Attm, confidence is low and given the lack of deep moisture being available, decided to stay w/the midnight crew`s thinking of keeping the mentions of tstms out of this forecast package. Some stronger wind gusts are possible w/the cold frontal pass. Therefore, decided to increase the wind gusts for Wednesday afternoon into early evening. Rainfall amounts will generally be light averaging about 0.10" or less. The ECMWF looked to be to wet w/its latest rainfall amounts and therefore used a blend of the guidance minus the ECMWF for the amounts. Daytime temps on Wednesday are expected to reach well into the 70s w/some sites across central and Downeast hitting around 80F. The front will clear the region Wednesday night w/some clearing taking place. High pres begins to build into the region from Canada on Thursday. There does look like a gradient holds through midday Thursday allowing for a winds to be up at 10-15 mph w/gust potential to 20+ mph. Winds are forecast to drop off fairly quickly later Thursday afternoon as the high pushes further east. Chilly day on Thursday w/daytime temps running 5-10 degrees below average.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Much colder Thursday night w/some areas seeing temps dropping into the upper 30s. This will be mainly for low lying areas. Friday will continue on the dry side and warmer as winds become sw in the afternoon allowing for warmer air to be pulled northward. Daytime temps will rebound back into the 70s and possibly lower 80s. Continued dry for Saturday and even a bit warmer as temps could very top 80F in the afternoon. The long range guidance including the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian Global show a frontal system apchg the region from the west Saturday night w/some low clouds and pre-frontal showers breaking out. The best chance for any showers will be across the w and sw areas. Sunday appears to be rather mild and possibly more humid w/some showers and the potential for some tstms. Since it is 6-7 days out, decided to not include any mention of tstms attm. There is still plenty of time to assess the convective potential.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MVFR to IFR conditions in variable low clouds and showers will improve to VFR from north to south late tonight into early Tuesday morning following the cold frontal passage. VFR conditions are then expected across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. SHORT TERM: MVFR mainly northern sites Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Wind gusts to 30 kts possible w/the cold front. Otherwise, VFR expected for all terminals into Friday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SCA will continue through late tonight for southwesterly winds gusting up to 25 kt over the offshore waters. Winds should drop below SCA following the cold front early Tuesday morning and remain below SCA through Tuesday night. Humid air over the waters will produce fog and mist reducing visibilities tonight ahead of the front. Seas will be up to 8 ft tonight over the offshore waters in response to the wind, but should decrease early Tuesday morning and drop below 5 ft by late Tuesday morning. SHORT TERM: No headlines expected through this term. SW winds gusting to 20 kts are possible w/the front Wednesday afternoon into early evening. Seas are forecast to reach near 4 ft and that should hold. WNW winds behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday will allow for seas to be knocked down to 3 ft. Rather quiet conditions right into the early part of the weekend w/winds around 10 kts and seas around 3 ft.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Bloomer/Hewitt Marine...Bloomer/Hewitt

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