National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 202352
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
752 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region tonight. A cold
front will approach later Monday and Monday night, then cross
the region Tuesday. high pressure will build in Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
745 PM Update: A quiet evening w/leftover clouds dissipating for
the most part. The satl imagery did show a line of clouds move
se from Quebec w/most of this being mid level deck. Latest sfc
analysis showed this feature as a trof associated w/a weak low
nw of the St. Lawrence River. The atmosphere has dried out, so
not expecting any brief shower or sprinkles from this feature.
Light SSE winds setting up later tonight will aid to cap any
further drop in overnight temps. So for now, stayed w/the
daycrew`s overnight mins. Only adjustment needed was to match up
the latest hrly temps w/the current conditions. Some concern for
some patchy fog by early Monday morning given the light SSE wind
and still moist ground from Saturday`s convection. Will assess
this later w/the next update.

Previous Discussion...
Expect this afternoon`s cumulus and any isolated showers across
the north to dissipate with the lose of heating early this
evening. This will set the stage for a mainly clear evening and
overnight as weak ridging in the 850 thru 500 mb level crests
the region tonight. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid
50s north to around 60.

Low pressure will be located near the western Great Lakes region
early Monday morning and then track northeast into Quebec province
pushing a warm front across the region during the afternoon. An
increasingly moist southwest flow aloft will develop behind the
warm front, and in advance of an approaching cold front/trof
from the west later Monday afternoon. Dew points are expected to
climb into the low to mid 60s across central and western areas
during the afternoon as surface temperatures climb into the
lower 80s. This will allow for some destabilization of the
atmosphere as we head into later Monday afternoon. This will
lead to the potential for thunderstorms by afternoon in the
increasingly unstable air mass. Think the best threat for any
stronger storms during Monday afternoon will be back across the
central Maine Highlands and the Greenville region where SB Capes
are expected to increase to 1000 around J/KG. 0-6km shear will
be around 30 to 40 kt to help support a few stronger storms. SPC
continues to advertise a slight risk for severe roughly to the
NW of a KCAR to KBGR line. Thus, have included enhanced wording
for gusty winds/small hail, mainly for the central Maine
highlands and north Maine Woods. Farther to the east across
Downeast and eastern Maine, instability won`t be as robust, as
southerly flow off the Gulf of Maine keeps it more stable.
Another item to note is that precipitable water values increase
to greater than 1.50" by late Monday afternoon in the moist
southwest flow aloft, which could result in some locally heavy
rainfall in any storms. High temperatures on Monday will range
from the low to mid 80s away from the coast, where it will
remain much cooler with flow off the Gulf of Maine.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Storms wl be ongoing Mon evening as warm advection continues in the
wake of warm frontal passage. Have included gusty winds and small
hail in the far northwest until late evening. Given the moist
airmass in place have also include patchy-areas of fog drg the
overnight hrs as dwpts rmn in the 60s.

Cdfnt wl be mvg thru the CWA on Tuesday with model guidance trending
a tad drier than prior runs and hv dropped pops accordingly. Fly in
the ointment wl be ultimate track of Claudette and whether she can
disrupt moisture advection into the area. Storms wl redevelop in the
aftn as front moves thru the area. PW values upwards of 1.5-1.75"
likely to result in torrential downpours on Tue ahead of the front.
Instability parameters and unconducive lapse rates precludes
mention of enhanced wording due to cld cvr forecast over the
area on Tue afternoon. Max temps are expected in the morning
acrs the north with frontal passage occurring late in the
morning.

Storms diminish during the evening as diurnal htg comes to an end
and cdfnt moves offshore. Skies wl clear acrs the north and west
with mins dropping to near 40 acrs the North Woods. High pressure
will build in for Wednesday with high temps expected to be near
normal. Warmest temps on Wed are expected to be along the coast in
offshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc high wl shift offshore on Thursday with return flow and sunny
skies allowing temps to warm to near 80F. Wx should be fairly quiet
thru the end of the week with high pressure, both at the sfc and
aloft, in control. Ridge then begins to break down over the weekend
with another round of showers to move in on Saturday and continuing
off and on thru the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR tonight through most of Monday. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop Monday afternoon, but remain generally
to the west of the terminals through late afternoon. S wind 5 kt
or less tonight will increase to 10 to 15 kt Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Tue night...MVFR/IFR possible Downeast in -tsra and patchy fog.
Conditions improve to VFR across north. NW 5kts.

Wed-Fri...VFR. NW 5-10kts Wed, light SW Wed night, SW 5-10kts
Thu and S 5-10kts Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will generally remain below SCA levels
through Monday.

SHORT TERM: Winds may approach 25kts on the outer waters with
tight pressure gradient over the waters. Seas climb to above 5
ft Mon night in southerly swell associated with Claudette. Seas
then diminish Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Duda/Farrar
Marine...Duda/Farrar