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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 160520
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
120 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will crest over the state overnight into
Tuesday. Tuesday night a weak upper level disturbance will move
across the region. A weak cold front will push through the state
Wednesday night with Canadian high pressure building into the
area Thursday through Friday. Another weak cold front will cross
the area Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
120 am update...
Sfc ridge extending up the spine of the Appalachians tonight.
Thin cirrus diving acrs the area, likely in conjunction with upr
lvl s/wv mvg seen on WV imagery. Expect this wl lkly dissipate
thru the course of the ovrngt but not enuf to go clr acrs the
CWA. Temps hv rapidly dropped off into the m50s ovr the North
Woods as winds hv gone light and hv updated to go with mins
around 50 ovr the deeper vlys of northwest Aroostook. Rmndr of
the area rmns unchanged.

Previous Discussion...
Return flow becomes established out of the SW tomorrow as warm
air advection becomes established. High temperatures will
generally trend up 5 to 8 degrees compared to today with a
slight increase in dewpoints. The real moisture push doesn`t
occur until Tuesday night for the Bangor Region and Downeast. A
weak 500mb shortwave will be approaching from Quebec province by
later afternoon. This feature will allow for a few isolated
rain showers across the Northwoods by evening, but rainfall
activity will mostly hold off until Tuesday night. Overall it
will a nice summer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While the region will be under locally zonal flow aloft Tuesday
night, a passing warm front should trigger some isolated to
scatterd showers across the region. Lows Tuesday night should be
around 5-10 degrees above normal.

The models are in fairly good agreement that a shortwave shears
off from the remains of Barry and brings mainly scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the region on Wednesday and
possibly into early Wednesday evening Downeast. With several
hundred J/kg of CAPE, and the region being in the right
entrance region of a 90+kt 300 hPa jet, could see some locally
stronger convection. In addition with precipitable waters
forecasted from around 1.5 inches across the North Woods, St.
john Valley and Central Aroostook and up to around 2 inches
across the Bangor/Penobscot Region and Downeast, could see some
locally heavy rainfall with any stronger convection. Will
continue to mention the low end chance for localized flash
flooding in the HWO across this region. Highs on Wednesday
should be around 5 degrees above normal.

Northern stream ridging begins to build in Wednesday night,
with conditions fairly rapidly drying out from N to S. Lows
Wednesday night should be around normal across the North and up
to around 5 degrees above normal elsewhere.

The northern stream ridging continues to build over the area
Thursday, with associated subsidence keeping things dry. While
northern areas should be mainly sunny, closer to the coast,
depending on strength/depth of onshore flow sky conditions
could end up closer to mostly cloudy. For now will go with
Partly sunny over Downeast and the Bangor Region. Highs on
Thursday will be highly dependent on cloud cover, especially
Downeast - for now expecting values within a few degrees of
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main story in the long term will be much above normal
temperatures and humidity Friday-Sunday. Saturday should be the
warmest day with highs mainly from the mid 80s to around 90 (a
tad cooler across higher elevations in the North and near the
immediate coast). Heat indices should peak out mainly in the
mid-upper 80s Friday (Around 80 Downeast), from the mid 80s to
Lower 90s Saturday (highest in the Penobscot/Bangor Region) and
mainly int he 80s on Sunday. There is a small chance a heat
advisory could be needed in the Penobscot/Bangor Region on
Saturday.

The northern stream ridge axis slides to the east Thursday
night, likely slow enough to keep things dry. However do have
slight chance pops in across mainly western zones for late night
in case the ridging gives way faster than expected.

A northern stream shortwave crosses the area Friday with some
mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The region will then be under WNW flow aloft Friday night-
Sunday. The models differ on handling of shortwaves embedded in
the flow during this time frame, but are in better agreement
that a shortwave will impact mainly northern areas late Friday
night/early Saturday - so have chance pops there and slight
chance pops Downeast. Otherwise, have slight chance pops
throughout during this time frame.

Northern stream ridging builds over the area Sunday night,
however a shortwave could be working its way over the top of
the ridge, so have slight chance pops in Sunday night as well.

A northern stream shortwave then should cross the area on
Monday with chance pops for all but Downeast, where have slight
chance pops.

Temperatures will be above normal for the Long Term.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours at all terminals. Will see
possible light showers mv in around midnight north of PQI with
bkn cigs expected ovr southern terminals by end of TAF valid
time. Light sw winds tonight will back twd the south during the
course of the day but will remain below 10kts.

SHORT TERM: Outlook Tuesday night-Saturday

Tuesday night...Becoming MVFR late with winds from the sw.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR at Penobscot/Bangor Region and Downeast
terminals in locally heavy rainfall and tstms. A brief period of
MVFR possible at far northern terminals, otherwise VFR. Winds
Wed afternoon will switch fm sw to n.

Wednesday night-Thursday night. Most likely VFR. Low chance of
MVFR or lower at coast Thursday.

Friday-Saturday...MVFR possible in any showers, otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Quiet weather expected over the coastal waters with
west to northwest decreasing this evening. Light winds tonight
and tomorrow morning will turn to the SW as a warmer and more
moist airmass begins to move over the coastal waters. Waves will
remain small with no large swell sets moving into the Gulf of
Maine.

SHORT TERM: A light to moderate over the waters will allow for
winds up to around 15kt with some gusts to 20kt over the coastal
ocean waters Tuesday night and Wednesday. The pressure gradient
slackens Wednesday night, then remains light through Saturday,
with winds around 10 kt or less over the waters. As a result,
expect sub-Small Craft Advisory Conditions over all waters
Tuesday night-Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/Dumont
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...Farrar/Dumont/Maloit
Marine...Farrar/Dumont/Maloit