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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 261325
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
925 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach from the southwest today and cross
the region this evening. High pressure will cross the area
Tuesday and Tuesday night, then slide offshore through
Wednesday. A couple of cold fronts will cross the region
Wednesday night and Thursday followed by low pressure tracking
well to the south Thursday night. High pressure then builds in
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:25AM Update... Rain, sleet, and light snow has begun to fall
in the Downeast near Bangor. The system is moving a little
faster than xpected, so adjusted the forecast to include the
changes in precip type and outset. Updated the temperatures and
dew points to include the current observations. Rest of the
forecast is well set up.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure will continue to track into northern New England
through tonight. The system will bring rain to Downeast, with
northern areas receiving a mix of precip types.

With some convergence and moisture working in aloft ahead of the
surface low, the Crown of Maine will see a few snow showers this
morning, with a dusting possible. The light accumulation will
be focused mainly along the NB border across the St. John
Valley, but cannot rule out a couple snow showers making their
way down to Caribou or PI before the main event arrives later
this afternoon. Low level profiles show a fairly dry atmosphere,
however fgen at around 700mb will help with formation and
potentially further saturation in the lower levels.

Later this morning, precipitation associated with the low
tracking into New England will arrive across the Central
Highlands. Cold air damming is expected to keep areas behind and north
of the higher terrain right around freezing through the day.
This will create periods of snow, sleet, and rain during the
afternoon. It is expected that warmer air will finally push
into the North Woods later, transitioning most of the mix to
rain/snow. Some freezing rain/drizzle is possible at higher
elevations and low, sheltered valleys where temps do not rise
uniformly. However, significant accumulations are not
anticipated.

Elsewhere, rain is expected to be the primary precip type.
QPF will be greatest where convergence is maximized w/ lift.
This roughly coincides with Interior Downeast, along and south
of the I-95 corridor from BGR to HUL. All precip will taper
after midnight as cold air filters back in with a brief
changeover to snow showers across the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
No high impact weather expected during the short term.  High
pressure across the Great Lakes will build toward the region Tuesday
and settle over Maine Tuesday night.  The high will retreat into the
Atlantic Wednesday. There will be a return flow on the back
side of the high and ahead of a cold front that will remain in
Canada dropping south of James Bay late in the day.

As far as the sensible weather, Tuesday will likely feature more
clouds than sun across the north with perhaps a flurry in a few
spots. Partly to mostly sunny Downeast after some early morning
clouds.  Highs will range from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s in
Bangor and interior Downeast.

Tuesday night will be clear to partly cloudy and cold with lows in
the teens north and 20s south.  Could not rule out a few single
digits in the broad northwest valleys if there is some remaining
snow on the ground.

Wednesday, looks like a decent late October day with at least
partial sunshine.  Temperatures will be a little below average with
highs in the low to mid 40s. There will be the chance of a
little light rain or snow in the afternoon across the North
Woods as a weak warm front and disturbance cross the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main system to watch is tropical storm Zeta which is forecast
per the National Hurricane Center to move into the Gulf of Mexico as
a hurricane Tuesday and make landfall along the Gulf coast midweek.
The remains of this system are expected to merge with low pressure
in the southern Plains and move off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday
night.  The vast majority of the operational models and model
ensembles keep the low far enough south that any significant
moisture remains to our south.  A fair number of the
models/ensembles bring the moisture far enough north to clip
the Downeast coast with a period of rain changing to snow, but
would keep a potential early season snowstorm to the south of
our region. It bares close watching, but given the relative
agreement in keeping the system mainly to our south will not
have more than chance PoPs along the coast with no precipitation
forecast to the north of the Bangor Region and interior
Downeast.

In the wake of the system that passes to our south Thursday
night and Friday, the pattern looks cold and mainly dry Friday
through the upcoming weekend. High pressure along the
Ontario/Qubec border Friday morning is expected to build into
northern New England by Sunday morning and slowly move east of
the area Sunday. The air mass remains cold for this time of year
Friday and Saturday with some modest moderation Sunday.
Overall, expect dry weather with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
below average as we close out October and start the month of
November.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Ceilings will lower to MVFR/IFR through the day after
a period of VFR this morning. Rain will overspread Downeast
terminals and HUL, with rain and snow mixing across northern
Aroostook sites. LLWS will move in later this evening and
tonight from PQI to BGR.

SHORT TERM:
Tue & Wed: MVFR possible Tue morning at the Aroostook County
terminals in BKN stratocu, otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
Tue and Wed.

Wed night and Thu: VFR.

Thu night & Fri: potential for a period of IFR in snow or mixed
snow/rain at KBHB later Thu night into Friday, and potentially MVFR
ceilings as far north as KBGR. Elsewhere, VFR expected to prevail
during this time.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas and winds below SCA. Waves will remain 2 to 3 ft
with SE winds shifting NW late tonight. Rain will overspread the
waters today. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out this
evening.

SHORT TERM: No clear cut periods of small craft advisory level wind or
seas until late in the week.  A few gusts may approach 25 knots in
the cold air advection in the wake of a cold front Tuesday. The next
chance of a small craft advisory would be later Thursday night
into Friday as low pressure passes south of the waters, and at
this time it looks like there likely will be a strong enough
gradient between the low to the south and high to the northwest
of the region that a headline will be needed, but this is still
several days off. Potential for seas to build to 6 to 8 feet on
the coastal waters on Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Cornwell/LaFlash
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Cornwell/LaFlash/CB
Marine...Cornwell/LaFlash/CB