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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 271000
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
600 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area today and move off the Downeast
coast tonight. It will be followed by high pressure building in
from the west through Wednesday. A cold front crosses the area
Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A warm front approaches
from the southwest late Thursday, then lifts to the northeast
on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
6 AM Update: Satellite pictures and observations indicate areas
of low stratus from Bangor east into Washington County and north
to around Millinocket with areas of fog. Elsewhere, clouds are
advancing into the region ahead of an approaching cold front.
Showers ahead of the cold front and along a pre-frontal trough
will overspread western portions of the FA this morning and
spread east. Made minor adjustments based on the current and
expected conditions, but overall the changes were minor.

Previous discussion:
A cold front working across Quebec is still west of the Saint
Lawrence River valley early this morning. The front will push to the
western Maine/Quebec border by around midday or early afternoon and
will slow down late today and into tonight as it works south and
into the Gulf of Maine. Most of the precipitation will be ahead of
the front and will be working into western sections of the FA early
this morning moving east to Caribou/Presque isle by around midday.
By late afternoon/early evening northern and western sections of the
area will have dried out and will likely even see some breaks of
sun. Showers will likely continue into the evening along the
Downeast coast. The front does really slow up, and it is possible
that showers could continue along coastal Washington County until at
least midnight.  Much cooler/drier air to the north with clearing.
The convective potential is not great with very poor mid and upper
level lapse rates, scant cape, and Show Walter index of +1 to
+3. Isolated convective elements are certainly possible with
isolated thunderstorms. Given that the PWATs approach 2" ahead
of the front local heavy downpours are possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region
on Tuesday as the previous cold front slowly crosses the Gulf of
Maine. Skies will clear under the subsidence, and temperatures
will remain around average for this time of year. Ensemble
guidance is in close agreement as far as temperatures are
concerned under this ridge, and average temperatures are likely
to carry through Tuesday night into Wednesday as well.

A cold front will approach from the west late in the day on
Wednesday. Moisture ahead of the front will be enough such that
diurnal heating may lead to the development of isolated showers
prior to the fropa. The GFS does show some pockets of CAPE aloft
across the north during this time, and the NBM has highlighted
this region with the slight chance for thunder. Though
convective showers themselves will be isolated, a rumble of
thunder cannot be ruled out Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will cross the state Wednesday night, with
precipitation remaining showery at best and little total
rainfall expected. There will be a brief break in the action on
Thursday, prior to a warm front lifting northwards late
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. This front will remain
dry, with the main feature of the boundary being a southerly
shift in wind direction as it passes by. These southerly winds
will advect warm air into the region, and combined with partly
cloudy skies through the day on Friday, will lead to the chance
for another above average temperature day on Friday. Current
forecast is for the majority of the forecast area to reach into
the 80s, with the Central Highlands potentially reaching up into
the upper 80s.

Relief from the heat will come with the next cold front, progged
to cross the region early next weekend. Current guidance
indicates the surface boundary will likely pass through our
forecast area sometime during the day on Saturday, though at
this time range uncertainty does remain in exactly when the
boundary will move through. The GFS brings the front through a
little faster than the Canadian and Euro deterministic models
do. The same can be seen in the ensemble spreads, with the GEFS
having a slightly weaker ridge to the east allowing for the
upper level trough to dig into New England a bit quicker than
other ensemble blends.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: IFR this morning in low clouds at KBGR and possibly
at KBHB at times. Conditions to improve to MVFR by this
afternoon. At the Aroostook Terminals, VFR this morning will
lower to MVFR this afternoon in showers. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon. Conditions improve to VFR this
evening at the northern terminals, and to VFR at the Downeast
terminals either late this evening or overnight. South wind 10
to 15 knots today with a few higher gusts. The wind will veer
into the west and diminish to around 5 knots tonight. LLWS this
afternoon into this evening at the Downeast terminals.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday - Tuesday night: VFR across all terminals. Brief
MVFR/IFR possible at BGR/BHB in patchy fog. Winds W to NW at 5
to 10 kts gusting 15 to 20 kts. Winds becoming light overnight.

Wednesday: VFR across all terminals. Winds shifting S at 5 to
10 kts gusting 15 to 20 kts.

Wednesday night: Mostly VFR, with occasional MVFR in rain
showers. Light winds shifting NW. Brief MVFR/IFR possible at
BGR/BHB in patchy fog.

Thursday: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Thursday night: VFR. Light winds shifting S.

Friday: VFR, with ceilings at northern terminals decreasing to
MVFR through the day as rain moves in from the north. S winds 10
to 15 kts gusting to 20 kts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is out through 6 p.m. EDT this
evening.  It is very marginal, and given the time of year gusts may
have a tough time reaching 25 knots, but seas may build to
around 5 ft on the outer waters. The wind and seas will both be
below SCA levels tonight. Areas of fog are expected until a cold
front pushes south of the waters tonight. Locally poor
visibility is possible at times.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory
levels through the end of the week, though wind gusts may begin
to increase towards 25 kts late in the day on Friday as a cold
front approaches from the west. With lighter winds in place this
week, there is a chance for dense fog each night this week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ050>052.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

Near Term...CB
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...CB/AStrauser
Marine...CB/AStrauser