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000
FXUS61 KCAR 241952
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
352 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front from Quebec will move off the Downeast coast this
evening. Canadian high pressure will build in behind the front
late tonight through Sunday, then move east Sunday night. Low
pressure will cross the region later Monday through Monday
night. High pressure will cross the region Tuesday through
Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another semi-fractured cold front crossing the FA this mid aftn,
with the strongest surge of cool air pivoting arnd the
Laurentians of QB more N to S thru the Nrn third of ME.
Eventually the cold front will re-consolidate crossing the SE
ptn of the Rgn by erly eve. The passage of this front will bring
much cooler air to the FA ovrngt as skies become mclr
Downeast/Cntrl ptns of the FA and ptly, to still msly at tms,
cldy across the N. Some meso models show possible St Lawrence
Seaway cld/shwr streamers later this eve into the ovrngt, and
with 925-850mb temps falling sig below zero deg C, flurries and
even brief lclzd sn shwr activity will be possible durg this tm
ovr Nrn and Ern ptns of the FA.

Colder temps behind the cold front will be accompanied by brisk
NNW winds across the Rgn. Otherwise, increasing subsidence late
tngt will result in brief clrg even across most Nrn ptns of the
FA by daybreak, before SC makes another brief encroachment ovr
this area from mid morn into early aftn, after which, skies will
clear FA wide by late aftn as NNW winds slowly diminish. Lows
tonight will be msly frzg ovr the Rgn, with hi temps Sun aftn
struggling to eclipse 40 deg F across the far N to mid 40s ovr
Downeast areas.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Sunday night with a mostly clear
evening, then increasing clouds overnight. Low pressure will
approach from the west Monday. Precipitation will expand east across
the forecast area in advance of the low, with increasing
precipitation chances through the afternoon. Generally expect
precipitation in the form of rain across much of the forecast area
Monday, though a rain/snow/sleet mix is possible across northwest
areas. The low crosses the region Monday night, drawing a cold front
south across the forecast area. Colder air will be drawn across the
region in the wake of the low and cold front. This will allow
precipitation to transition to snow across northwest areas, with a
rain/snow mix developing across the remainder of northern Maine.
Precipitation will taper to snow showers across northern areas
before ending later Monday night, with rain tapering to rain
showers Downeast. Light snow accumulations are possible across
northern Maine Monday night. The better chances of snow
accumulation will occur across northwest areas, the Saint John
Valley and higher terrain. High pressure builds across the
region Tuesday. Could still have the slight chance of a rain
shower Downeast early Tuesday. Otherwise, expect partly/mostly
cloudy skies across the region Tuesday. Temperatures will be at
below normal levels Monday/Tuesday.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will cross the forecast area Tuesday night, with low
pressure tracking south of the Gulf of Maine. Uncertainty
exists regarding the northern edge of the precipitation shield
Tuesday night. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across
northern areas Tuesday night, with partly/mostly cloudy skies
Downeast. Will also include a slight chance of rain/snow showers
Downeast due to the uncertainty regarding the northern edge of
the precipitation shield. High pressure crosses the region
Wednesday, with a cold front approaching northwest areas
Wednesday night. Across northern areas expect partly cloudy
skies Wednesday, with increasing clouds along with a chance of
rain/snow showers Wednesday night. Across Downeast areas,
expect partly cloudy skies Wednesday through Wednesday night.
The cold front will cross the region Thursday with a chance of
rain/snow showers north, a chance of rain showers Downeast.
High pressure then begins to build toward the region Thursday
night. High pressure builds across the region Friday into
Saturday with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies. Temperatures
will be at below normal levels Wednesday/Friday/Saturday. Near
normal level temperatures are expected Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: All TAF sites IFR-MVFR clgs/vsbys with rn shwrs thru
the remainder of the aftn, then improving to hi MVFR Nrn TAF
sites to VFR Downeast sites this eve, contg thru the late ngt,
with even Nrn TAf sites improving to VFR Sun. Mdt NNW winds into
the ovrngt, becoming lgt very late tngt into Sun.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday night...VFR.

Monday...VFR early then lowering to MVFR/IFR with developing
rain. A rain/snow/sleet mix possible across northwest areas.

Monday night...IFR/LIFR early, improving to VFR/MVFR late. A mix of
rain/sleet/snow early, transitioning to snow showers overnight
north. Rain early, transitioning to rain showers overnight Downeast.

Tuesday...Generally VFR. MVFR possible early Downeast with the
slight chance of a shower.

Tuesday night...MVFR possible with a slight chance of rain/snow
showers Downeast. Otherwise, VFR.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Generally VFR. MVFR possible
late Wednesday night north with a chance of rain/snow showers.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain and snow showers north, a
chance of rain showers Downeast.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Will cont with the SCA for all waters, with the
initial reason being very long pd swell from Epsilon over the
open Atlc well S of Nova Scotia, with offshore winds behind a
cold front increasing to SCA gust thresholds producing a chop on
top of the swell later tngt into Sun. Wv swell hts thru this
aftn have been about 15 to 20 percent less than WW3 fcsts and
even a little less than blended model wv guidance values, so we
initially reduced wv hts by a foot ovr blended guidance and then
merged to guidance by Sun morn. At this point, both show both
winds and seas will gradually diminish Sun morn to below SCA
thresholds by Sun aftn, but given the uncertain nature of swell
group persistence from distancing source regions as Epsilon
conts to move SE, it`s certainly possible that we may need to
xtnd a few more hrs spcly ovr our outer waters.

From a Gerling-Hanson perspective, Initially nearly all of the
wv energy will be in very long pd swell from Epsilon thru this
eve, with an emerging secondary offshore very short fetch
increasing by late tngt into Sun behind a cold front as swell
hts begin to slowly diminish in ht.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday
night through Tuesday. A chance of rain Monday into Monday
night. A slight chance of showers Tuesday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...VJN/Norcross
Marine...VJN/Norcross