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047
FXUS61 KCAR 150957
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
557 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through early next
week. A backdoor cold front will drift southwest over Maine on
Thursday. Another area of high pressure works into the area for
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Update...
Current temperatures at this hour ranged from the upper 30s to
lower 40s across the colder northern valleys and the mid to
upper 40s for the Bangor region and Downeast. Patchy river
valley fog was also evident on satellite imagery.

The current forecast remains on track so no changes are needed
at this hour, other than minor adjustments to hourly temps and
dew points.

previous discussion
Strong mid/upper level ridging will persist across the region
through tonight. Surface high centered across the forecast area this
morning drifts off the coast and remains south of the region through
tonight. Thus, expect a mainly sunny day today followed by mainly
clear skies tonight. Return flow around the departing high
results in a warmer day today. Afternoon highs approach the 80
degree mark in most areas inland from the coast. It wont be
quite as cool tonight with lows mainly in the low to mid 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upr level high center will be sprawled acrs the nrn U.S. from lower
Michigan to off of the New England coast. This leaves the CWA on the
nrn periphery of the ridge axis on Monday before it begins to
flatten on Tuesday with wave moving acrs James Bay. H5 heights will
lower into the upper 580s thru the middle of the week which will
still keep area in well above normal temperatures thru the period.

As far as rain chances go they are essential nil with dry boundary
layer. Will need to keep an eye on drier dewpoints being able to mix
down each afternoon. With streamflows running near to below normal
acrs the area and above normal temps in the 80s each afternoon may
see another resurgence for fire wx concerns Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure at both the sfc and aloft has a pretty good hold over
CWA on Wednesday. GFS and EC showing backdoor cold front working in
from ern Canada Thursday afternoon with temps on Wednesday ahead of
it warm with low-mid 80s over inland locations. Thursday will be
above normal with temperatures in the mid 70s expected, even under
cloudy conditions and cool easterly flow.

By Friday temps will be back down toward seasonal norms under cloudy
skies. Upr low will get stuck near the Maritimes by the end of the
week due to Rex block setting up over the North Atlantic. Upr trof
looks to affect area thru the end of the week before hipres slowly
builds back in next weekend. Deterministic GFS and EC, along with
their ensemble means and CMC ensemble mean, agrees with this
scenario. Deterministic CMC looks to go off the rails on Wednesday
with moisture surge from tropical and/or subtropical system heading
into the OH Valley approaching srn areas. Have discounted this
solution and will maintain persistence throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through tonight. Only exception will be patchy
late night and early morning valley fog. Light and variable
wind.

SHORT TERM:
Monday-Tuesday night...VFR. Patchy valley fog each morning. WSW 5-
10kts gusting to 20kts in the afternoon.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...VFR. W 5kts becoming light NW in the
evening.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR showers for northern terminals
in the afternoon. NNE 5kts in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/sea will remain below SCA through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will be below small craft levels
through the period. Seas from 1-3 feet through Thursday before
increasing Friday morning in northeasterly swell.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record high temperatures possible next week.
Although some of the records look to be well out of reach there
are a few records that could potentially be tied or broken.
Here are the record highs and forecast highs for Monday through
Wednesday September 16th-18th.

9/16:
Caribou: 88F, 1939 (forecast high 84F)
Bangor: 97F, 1939 (forecast high 84F)
Millinocket: 93F, 1939 (forecast high 84F)
Houlton: 82F, 2017 (forecast high 84F)

9/17:
Caribou: 88F, 2018 (forecast high 85F)
Bangor: 88F, 1991 (forecast high 85F)
Millinocket: 90F, 1939 (Forecast highs 84F)
Houlton: 85F, 2018 (Forecast high 84F)

9/18:
Caribou: 86F, 1942 (Forecast high 82F)
Bangor: 87F, 1992 (Forecast high 83F)
Millinocket: 87F, 1991 (Forecast high 82F)
Houlton: 82F, 2015 (Forecast high 82F)

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/Buster
Marine...TWD/Buster
Climate...