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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 202227
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
627 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will stall across the north tonight as the low
tracks across the area. Low pressure will continue east through
the Maritimes on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6:27 pm: After collaboration with WFO Gray and SPC have
cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch. One halfway decent cell
is falling apart as it moves into southwest Penobscot County.
Have removed all severe weather wording across the FA and just
have isolated thunderstorms for the next few hours. Made some
rather significant changes to the PoPs based mostly on the
latest radar returns, but also gave consideration to the
synoptic environment and the near term models.

Previous discussion:
A warm front will continue to move northward across the region
this evening as low pressure moves to the west of New England.
This will result in showers and thunderstorms tonight. The low
pressure system will move across the very northern portion of
Maine late tonight with showers continuing into Tuesday Morning.
A cold front will also move around the back of the low tonight
and approach the region from the west. Showers are expected to
continue across the north on Tuesday as skies become partly
cloudy across the far south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tue night wl feature upr low mv into the Canadian Maritimes with
lingering cyclonic flow acrs the region into the day Wed bfr ridging
builds in. Expect that showers wl come to an end by Wed mrng with
colder temps aloft and mocldy conds keeping temps down blo normal.

If skies can clr Wed night with ridge axis building ovr the region
vly areas may be able to drop under fcst mins Thu mrng. However,
higher level clouds mvg in ahd of next system may impede radn`l
cooling enuf that m/u30s acrs the North Woods is reasonable. Do not
see any reason at this point to go lower, especially in areas that
are currently active with the growing season (mainly south of a Van
Buren-Greenville line).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upr wv wl approach srn and wrn areas of the CWA Thu evening and
overnight. Med range guidance is in much better agreement than
it was yda with potential for MCS working its way out of srn
Canada drg the overnight pd. Am not confident enuf to go with
lkly pops this far out but confidence is increasing in the
likelihood of seeing rain ovr wrn sxns Thur night. Aft system
exits the region Fri morning expect that low clds and cooler
temps wl be left in it`s wake with warmest temps acrs the north
in the St. John Vly for Fri.

Another wv wl appch fm the west on Sat with lkly showers
expected drg the day. As this system mvs east zonal flow wl
dominate the area`s wx thru end of the pd.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions tonight into Tuesday. VFR
conditions are possible across the south Tuesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: With upper low continuing to influence northern
terminals expect MVFR stratus to linger across northern
terminals into Wed afternoon. VFR at all terminals Wed night
through Friday, though may see MVFR restrictions move into BGR
and BHB as showers approach from the north and west.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used the Nam to initialize winds however will
reduce model winds by 50 percent due to expected southwesterly
winds and relatively cold sea surface temperatures (Mid 40s).
Currently winds speeds are well under 10 kts. For Waves:
Currently the primary wave system is southerly swell (around 5
feet/7 seconds). On Tuesday a secondary off-shore wind wave
system will develop but southerly swell will remain the primary
wave group. Will keep SCA for seas in place. Total Water Level:
Surge guidance continues to indicate a negative surge late
tomorrow into Wednesday as winds go off-shore. Will keep the
Base Tide anomaly near zero.

SHORT TERM: Wind gusts approach SCA levels Tue night in
northwest flow and cold advection in wake of departing low.
Winds wl diminish on Wed morning and remain below SCA levels
through the end of the week. Seas rmn below 5 feet throughout
the period though outer zones may flirt with SCA levels Wed
morning.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Tuesday
     for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Mignone
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...CB/Mignone/Farrar
Marine...CB/Mignone/Farrar