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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 181448
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
948 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will crest over the region today. Low
pressure will approach from the Great Lakes region tonight and
track across the area Sunday. An upper trough will remain over
the area Monday into Tuesday with high pressure building in for
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
945 am Update: No sig chgs from the last fcst update. Obsvd low
temps, which indicated a very chilly erly morn across our FA,
alg latest hrly obsv temps/dwpts were used to re-fcst hrly
temps into the aftn hrs with no chgs attm to fcst hi temps.

Prev Disc: Upr wv currently located over NW MN wl head east
into the Great Lakes region today. At the same time the sfc low
wl head east thru the day.

Very cold airmass resides over the CWA and with overrunning
pcpn lifting into the area late this evng and into the overnight
hours all locations wl start off as snow. Secondary low dvlpmnt
is expected around 09z in the morning near the swrn Gulf of
Maine in LFQ of upr lvl jet. Blyr looks to rmn below frzg with
the exception of the immediate coast and outer islands where
snow may mix with or change to rain around daybreak on Sunday as
sfc temps warm to just abv frzg. However if GFS is correct with
the location of the sfc low blyr would warm as far north as
central Washington and Hancock cntys. GFS is the outlier as rmng
guidance and EC ensembles have sfc low rmng out ovr the waters.
Having gone with majority have kept pcpn as all snow outside of
the outer islands. QPF amounts indicate a widespread 6-8 inches
with amnts closer to 4-5 inches over the islands. Either way
solid advisory amnts look to be the rule ovr the entire region,
tho cannot rule out the potential for fgen banding but that
potential looks to hv shifted ewrd into New Brunswick during
the morning hrs.

Overall, expect that this wl be a light and fluffy snow acrs the
nrn and cntrl sxns which wl easily accumulate so cannot rule
out 7+ inches somewhere but identifying where that area would be
is one of vry low confidence at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will be moving east away from the region Sunday night
with scattered evening snow showers expected across northern
areas, otherwise expect mainly cloudy skies overnight across the
north and partly cloudy downeast. Monday will be a dry day with
highs in the low to mid teens north and lower 20s central and
Downeast. An upper trof will cross the region Monday night and
Tuesday with a reinforcing shot of arctic air, with lows Monday
night falling below zero all areas away from the coast. Highs on
Tuesday will only be in the single digits above zero north and
low to mid teens Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday night is expected to be a good radiational cooling night
and have dropped temperatures several degrees from NBM. Will
likely see low approaching -20F across the north Maine Woods by
daybreak Wednesday. A moderating temperature trend is expected
by midweek as a southwest flow develops with high temperatures
by Thursday and Friday expected to climb well into the 20s
across the north and into the lower 30s Downeast. Looks like it
will be mainly dry through the long term period with the next
chance of any organized precipitation not until next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR expected today though MVFR cigs will
affect FVE, CAR and PQI for a few hours this morning. VFR cigs
give way to IFR vsbys in -sn after 04z north of KHUL, while BGR
and BHB drop to IFR after 02z. Potential for LIFR over Downeast
terminals after 05z.

SHORT TERM: Sun Night....MVFR in scattered evening snow showers
northern terminals and VFR Downeast. NW winds

Mon thru Wed...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will gust to SCA levels early this morning with
moderate accumulations of freezing spray expected. Wind gusts
will pick up to aoa 25kts later this evening into Sunday
morning. A brief break is then expected through the day Sunday.
Seas are trending down this morning before increasing Sunday
morning in srly swell. Seas will remain elevated through the end
of the near term.

SHORT TERM: Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Sunday
night into Monday, then winds/seas remain below SCA levels into
mid week. Light freezing spray will be an issue Sunday night
through monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
     Sunday for MEZ001>006-032.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Sunday for MEZ010-011-015>017-029>031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Sunday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...VJN/Duda
Marine...VJN/Duda