Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241952 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 352 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front from Quebec will move off the Downeast coast this evening. Canadian high pressure will build in behind the front late tonight through Sunday, then move east Sunday night. Low pressure will cross the region later Monday through Monday night. High pressure will cross the region Tuesday through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another semi-fractured cold front crossing the FA this mid aftn, with the strongest surge of cool air pivoting arnd the Laurentians of QB more N to S thru the Nrn third of ME. Eventually the cold front will re-consolidate crossing the SE ptn of the Rgn by erly eve. The passage of this front will bring much cooler air to the FA ovrngt as skies become mclr Downeast/Cntrl ptns of the FA and ptly, to still msly at tms, cldy across the N. Some meso models show possible St Lawrence Seaway cld/shwr streamers later this eve into the ovrngt, and with 925-850mb temps falling sig below zero deg C, flurries and even brief lclzd sn shwr activity will be possible durg this tm ovr Nrn and Ern ptns of the FA. Colder temps behind the cold front will be accompanied by brisk NNW winds across the Rgn. Otherwise, increasing subsidence late tngt will result in brief clrg even across most Nrn ptns of the FA by daybreak, before SC makes another brief encroachment ovr this area from mid morn into early aftn, after which, skies will clear FA wide by late aftn as NNW winds slowly diminish. Lows tonight will be msly frzg ovr the Rgn, with hi temps Sun aftn struggling to eclipse 40 deg F across the far N to mid 40s ovr Downeast areas. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will cross the region Sunday night with a mostly clear evening, then increasing clouds overnight. Low pressure will approach from the west Monday. Precipitation will expand east across the forecast area in advance of the low, with increasing precipitation chances through the afternoon. Generally expect precipitation in the form of rain across much of the forecast area Monday, though a rain/snow/sleet mix is possible across northwest areas. The low crosses the region Monday night, drawing a cold front south across the forecast area. Colder air will be drawn across the region in the wake of the low and cold front. This will allow precipitation to transition to snow across northwest areas, with a rain/snow mix developing across the remainder of northern Maine. Precipitation will taper to snow showers across northern areas before ending later Monday night, with rain tapering to rain showers Downeast. Light snow accumulations are possible across northern Maine Monday night. The better chances of snow accumulation will occur across northwest areas, the Saint John Valley and higher terrain. High pressure builds across the region Tuesday. Could still have the slight chance of a rain shower Downeast early Tuesday. Otherwise, expect partly/mostly cloudy skies across the region Tuesday. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Monday/Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will cross the forecast area Tuesday night, with low pressure tracking south of the Gulf of Maine. Uncertainty exists regarding the northern edge of the precipitation shield Tuesday night. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across northern areas Tuesday night, with partly/mostly cloudy skies Downeast. Will also include a slight chance of rain/snow showers Downeast due to the uncertainty regarding the northern edge of the precipitation shield. High pressure crosses the region Wednesday, with a cold front approaching northwest areas Wednesday night. Across northern areas expect partly cloudy skies Wednesday, with increasing clouds along with a chance of rain/snow showers Wednesday night. Across Downeast areas, expect partly cloudy skies Wednesday through Wednesday night. The cold front will cross the region Thursday with a chance of rain/snow showers north, a chance of rain showers Downeast. High pressure then begins to build toward the region Thursday night. High pressure builds across the region Friday into Saturday with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Wednesday/Friday/Saturday. Near normal level temperatures are expected Thursday. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: All TAF sites IFR-MVFR clgs/vsbys with rn shwrs thru the remainder of the aftn, then improving to hi MVFR Nrn TAF sites to VFR Downeast sites this eve, contg thru the late ngt, with even Nrn TAf sites improving to VFR Sun. Mdt NNW winds into the ovrngt, becoming lgt very late tngt into Sun. SHORT TERM: Sunday night...VFR. Monday...VFR early then lowering to MVFR/IFR with developing rain. A rain/snow/sleet mix possible across northwest areas. Monday night...IFR/LIFR early, improving to VFR/MVFR late. A mix of rain/sleet/snow early, transitioning to snow showers overnight north. Rain early, transitioning to rain showers overnight Downeast. Tuesday...Generally VFR. MVFR possible early Downeast with the slight chance of a shower. Tuesday night...MVFR possible with a slight chance of rain/snow showers Downeast. Otherwise, VFR. Wednesday through Wednesday night...Generally VFR. MVFR possible late Wednesday night north with a chance of rain/snow showers. Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain and snow showers north, a chance of rain showers Downeast. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Will cont with the SCA for all waters, with the initial reason being very long pd swell from Epsilon over the open Atlc well S of Nova Scotia, with offshore winds behind a cold front increasing to SCA gust thresholds producing a chop on top of the swell later tngt into Sun. Wv swell hts thru this aftn have been about 15 to 20 percent less than WW3 fcsts and even a little less than blended model wv guidance values, so we initially reduced wv hts by a foot ovr blended guidance and then merged to guidance by Sun morn. At this point, both show both winds and seas will gradually diminish Sun morn to below SCA thresholds by Sun aftn, but given the uncertain nature of swell group persistence from distancing source regions as Epsilon conts to move SE, it`s certainly possible that we may need to xtnd a few more hrs spcly ovr our outer waters. From a Gerling-Hanson perspective, Initially nearly all of the wv energy will be in very long pd swell from Epsilon thru this eve, with an emerging secondary offshore very short fetch increasing by late tngt into Sun behind a cold front as swell hts begin to slowly diminish in ht. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday night through Tuesday. A chance of rain Monday into Monday night. A slight chance of showers Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...VJN/Norcross Marine...VJN/Norcross

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