Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171658 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1158 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian High pressure will cross the region today. Weak low pressure moves across the region Friday, followed by an Arctic cold front Friday night and arctic high pressure on Saturday. A Noreaster is expected to approach from the southwest Sunday move through the Gulf of Maine Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 12 pm update... Quick update to temps as they are vry slow to rise under full sun. No major chgs needed with this update. Previous discussion blo... Wind chill advisories remain up for the northern half of our forecast area thru 9 AM. Thereafter, winds will diminish rather quickly by late morning or early afternoon, as high pressure continues to build east across the area. Otherwise, expect mainly sunny skies today. Highs today across the north will only be in the single digits above zero and 10 to 15 above central and downeast. The high moves east this evening, with mainly clear skies early giving way to increasing clouds. Some radiational cooling is likely thru early evening before the arrival of thicker cloud cover after midnight. This should allow temperatures to fall rather quickly after sunset, expect lows across the north to fall to 5 to 10 below zero, and zero to 5 above central and downeast. Some light overunning snow is expected to develop across the region by daybreak Friday ahead of a weak area of low pressure approaching from the west. Any snow accumulation by daybreak is expected to be less than an inch. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Mainly lgt sn will overspread the FA Fri morn, contg thru the aftn before tapering to sct sn shwrs Fri eve and ending late Fri ngt. Fcst sn totals attm look to be msly 1 to 2 inches with this event attm, with some lctns ovr E Cntrl ptns of the FA getting up to 3 inches. Sn amts alg the immediate coast may be reduced by mixing with rn this aftn as milder marine air moves onshore. Steady sn will taper to sct sn shwrs by erly Fri eve and end later Fri ngt following this low. Another high residence arctic air mass will move into the FA from N Cntrl Can late Fri ngt into Sat morn with clrg skies and sharply colder temps on very brisk NW winds, likely requiring wind chill hdlns for much of our FA. Winds will diminish Sat aftn, with very cold hi temps as some lctns across the far N will struggle to get abv 0 deg F. High clds will eclipse the FA from the SW by late Sat aftn as an important low pres from the SW conts to organize as it apchs from the SW. Clds from this system will thicken Sat eve/ovrngt with sn moving into SW ptns of the FA by erly Sun morn with snfl beginning for many lctns with temps well below zero F. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Latest trends from the longer range models by tngt`s 00z model run suite indicate a consistent track of the coastal sfc low to affect our Rgn Sun and Sun ngt ovr recent prior model runs, with just the CanGem an erly outlier (which is not impossible considering the depth of arctic air xpctd to be entrenched ovr our FA prior to this event. Precip type is still xpctd to entirely sn for Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the FA, with a mix of sleet and/or fzra still possible later Fri aftn/erly eve for interior and spcly coastal Downeast areas and alg the NB border as far N as SE Aroostook county after a sig to hvy amt of sn there as well. A narrow band(s) of sig sleet and fzra accumulation is possible somewhere in these areas on top of snfl spcly considering total QPF potential with this event looks to be in the 1.00 to 1.50 inch range across the NW hlf and around 2 inches for the SE hlf. Hyper low to mid lvl baroclinicity and an atmospheric sub-tropical rvr bringing unseasonably high PWs alg the Srn periphery of our FA in addition to strong upper dynamics with the upper lvl trof accompanying the sfc low are the main reasons for squeezing this much moisture out of the atmosphere where llvl cold air prev dominated. It`s still a little to erly to issue wntr stm watches with this potentially important event, but if model guidance continues to be consistent with track and fcst QPF with this storm, watches could be issued as erly as Thu aftn. Consensus model solution would have colder air rapidly returning to the SE hlf of the FA ovrngt Sun, resulting in transition back to all sn before steady sn tapers to sct sn shwrs by Mon and ends by Mon ngt. Another shot of arctic air will arrive into the FA later Mon with brisk winds contg into Mon ngt with lighter winds, some moderation in temps, and clrg skies for Tue. The next chc for sn or mixed precip will be Wed as low pres from the Midwest apchs. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected until closer to 12z Fri as low MVFR cigs move in ahead of next light snow event. Expect that IFR snow will likely occur after this time for all but FVE terminals thru end of TAF valid time. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR clgs and/or vsbys all TAF sites in lgt sn on Fri, then improving to MVFR Fri eve and to VFR late Fri ngt, contg so Sat and Sat eve. Clgs and vsbys will again lower to IFR or less by erly Sun morn in sn, contg thru the day Sun and Sun ngt before improving to MVFR conditions on Mon in sn shwrs. A period of mixed precip is possible for Downeast TAF sites late Sun aftn into eve. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 11 am, then winds/seas will remain below SCA levels thru tonight. A Freezing Spray Advisory remains in effect thru 10 AM today. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mostly SCA to sub SCA conditons Fri thru Sat eve with mdt fzg spray likely late Fri ngt into Sat. The next chc of possible gale force winds will be Sun ahead of apchg low pres from the SW, depending on the track, and again later Sun ngt into Mon behind the low. Kept close to WW3/NWPS blended guidance for fcst wv hts. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/Farrar Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/Farrar/VJN Marine...Duda/Farrar/VJN

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