Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 202352 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 752 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region tonight. A cold front will approach later Monday and Monday night, then cross the region Tuesday. high pressure will build in Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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745 PM Update: A quiet evening w/leftover clouds dissipating for the most part. The satl imagery did show a line of clouds move se from Quebec w/most of this being mid level deck. Latest sfc analysis showed this feature as a trof associated w/a weak low nw of the St. Lawrence River. The atmosphere has dried out, so not expecting any brief shower or sprinkles from this feature. Light SSE winds setting up later tonight will aid to cap any further drop in overnight temps. So for now, stayed w/the daycrew`s overnight mins. Only adjustment needed was to match up the latest hrly temps w/the current conditions. Some concern for some patchy fog by early Monday morning given the light SSE wind and still moist ground from Saturday`s convection. Will assess this later w/the next update. Previous Discussion... Expect this afternoon`s cumulus and any isolated showers across the north to dissipate with the lose of heating early this evening. This will set the stage for a mainly clear evening and overnight as weak ridging in the 850 thru 500 mb level crests the region tonight. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid 50s north to around 60. Low pressure will be located near the western Great Lakes region early Monday morning and then track northeast into Quebec province pushing a warm front across the region during the afternoon. An increasingly moist southwest flow aloft will develop behind the warm front, and in advance of an approaching cold front/trof from the west later Monday afternoon. Dew points are expected to climb into the low to mid 60s across central and western areas during the afternoon as surface temperatures climb into the lower 80s. This will allow for some destabilization of the atmosphere as we head into later Monday afternoon. This will lead to the potential for thunderstorms by afternoon in the increasingly unstable air mass. Think the best threat for any stronger storms during Monday afternoon will be back across the central Maine Highlands and the Greenville region where SB Capes are expected to increase to 1000 around J/KG. 0-6km shear will be around 30 to 40 kt to help support a few stronger storms. SPC continues to advertise a slight risk for severe roughly to the NW of a KCAR to KBGR line. Thus, have included enhanced wording for gusty winds/small hail, mainly for the central Maine highlands and north Maine Woods. Farther to the east across Downeast and eastern Maine, instability won`t be as robust, as southerly flow off the Gulf of Maine keeps it more stable. Another item to note is that precipitable water values increase to greater than 1.50" by late Monday afternoon in the moist southwest flow aloft, which could result in some locally heavy rainfall in any storms. High temperatures on Monday will range from the low to mid 80s away from the coast, where it will remain much cooler with flow off the Gulf of Maine.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Storms wl be ongoing Mon evening as warm advection continues in the wake of warm frontal passage. Have included gusty winds and small hail in the far northwest until late evening. Given the moist airmass in place have also include patchy-areas of fog drg the overnight hrs as dwpts rmn in the 60s. Cdfnt wl be mvg thru the CWA on Tuesday with model guidance trending a tad drier than prior runs and hv dropped pops accordingly. Fly in the ointment wl be ultimate track of Claudette and whether she can disrupt moisture advection into the area. Storms wl redevelop in the aftn as front moves thru the area. PW values upwards of 1.5-1.75" likely to result in torrential downpours on Tue ahead of the front. Instability parameters and unconducive lapse rates precludes mention of enhanced wording due to cld cvr forecast over the area on Tue afternoon. Max temps are expected in the morning acrs the north with frontal passage occurring late in the morning. Storms diminish during the evening as diurnal htg comes to an end and cdfnt moves offshore. Skies wl clear acrs the north and west with mins dropping to near 40 acrs the North Woods. High pressure will build in for Wednesday with high temps expected to be near normal. Warmest temps on Wed are expected to be along the coast in offshore flow. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Sfc high wl shift offshore on Thursday with return flow and sunny skies allowing temps to warm to near 80F. Wx should be fairly quiet thru the end of the week with high pressure, both at the sfc and aloft, in control. Ridge then begins to break down over the weekend with another round of showers to move in on Saturday and continuing off and on thru the end of the long term. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR tonight through most of Monday. Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon, but remain generally to the west of the terminals through late afternoon. S wind 5 kt or less tonight will increase to 10 to 15 kt Monday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Tue night...MVFR/IFR possible Downeast in -tsra and patchy fog. Conditions improve to VFR across north. NW 5kts. Wed-Fri...VFR. NW 5-10kts Wed, light SW Wed night, SW 5-10kts Thu and S 5-10kts Fri. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will generally remain below SCA levels through Monday. SHORT TERM: Winds may approach 25kts on the outer waters with tight pressure gradient over the waters. Seas climb to above 5 ft Mon night in southerly swell associated with Claudette. Seas then diminish Tuesday afternoon. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Duda/Farrar Marine...Duda/Farrar

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