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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 281707
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
107 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest over the area today then slide to the east
tonight. Low pressure will approach Sunday and track south of the
area Monday. High pressure will build to our north and west Tuesday
and Wednesday while low pressure remains southeast of the Canadian
Maritimes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 pm Update...
Late March sun continues to impress as temperatures push
towards 50 Downeast, and more locations in north rising into
lower 40s. Adjusting some temps were the only changes to
forecast this afternoon beside updating for observations. High
cirrus will begin to move over the Central Highlands and
Downeast through the afternoon, thickening into the evening and
overnight hours.


Prev discussion blo...
1020mb sfc high extending fm cntrl Quebec to ern MA wl continue to
build east thru the overnight hrs. As winds become lighter drg the
overnight expect temps to begin dropping under clr skies and
snowpack acrs the north. Still expecting temps to dip into the teens
acrs the North Woods by morning with 20s elsewhere.

Skies wl be sunny tda as mixing allows temps to warm into the 50s
over portions of Downeast. Elsewhere temps wl only be able to rise
into the l/m 40s. Ridge axis wl be building over the FA drg the day
leading to lgt winds.

For tonight, winds wl be light and vrb with ridge mvg offshore aft
06z as system appchs fm the west. High clds wl begin to mv in fm the
southwest in the evng and overspread the region drg the nighttime
hrs. Lows wl still be able to drop into the 20s acrs the north and
east given the light winds and extent of moclr skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large area of low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes on
Sunday as jet energy rounding the bottom of a Midwestern trough
redevelops low pressure off Southern New England. The low will
spread a mixture of snow and rain Downeast midday Sunday with snow
reaching the north late Sunday afternoon. The latest guidance is
showing an initial push of precipitation surging across the area
Sunday evening as a function of lift over the eastern edge of the
upper trough as secondary low pressure sliding off southern New
England takes over, well ahead of the main low tracking into the
eastern Great Lakes. From there, the guidance begins to differ. The
GFS supports continued snow north, and a mix Downeast,
primarily supported by the dynamic lift of the upper low
tracking into western New England. The NAM, however, after an
initial period of moderate to heavy precipitation, shows the
blocking high over far eastern Canada pushing down and
suppressing precipitation south as the secondary low tracks
straight east, well south of Nova Scotia. Lighter more
intermittent snow and rain may continue Monday into Monday night
as the upper low moves over and the surface low continues east
into the open Atlantic.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will build well to our north Tuesday into Tuesday
night. This high will merge with the blocking high in eastern Canada
and may back some moisture west into our area Wednesday into
Wednesday night along with some warmer Maritime air. This could
produce clouds and chances for showers through the mid-week period
and possibly into Thursday. A new trough of low pressure and surface
low may reach the east coast Friday, possibly combining with the
large blocking high to our north to create a deep layer east wind,
rain showers, and possibly wet snow over the higher elevations. The
presence of the blocking high may mean this low will be slow moving
possibly keeping clouds and rain and snow showers through much of
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. NW winds will become near calm
after 00z this evening.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday: Conditions lowering to MVFR then IFR from south to north
Sunday in rain and snow. SE wind.

Sunday night: IFR in low clouds, rain and snow. SE wind.

Monday: IFR in low clouds. East winds.

Monday night: IFR. NE winds.

Tuesday: IFR becoming MVFR. NE winds.

Tuesday night: MVFR to VFR Downeast, MVFR north. N winds.

Wednesday: MVFR north. VFR to MVFR Downeast. NE winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through
tonight under high pressure. Waves will slowly decrease to
between 1-2 feet this evening.

SHORT TERM:
A SCA will likely be needed late Sunday into Tuesday for NE
winds, especially across the offshore waters. Winds should be
below SCA Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Cornwell/Farrar
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Cornwell/Farrar/Bloomer
Marine...Cornwell/Farrar/Bloomer