Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281707 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 107 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will crest over the area today then slide to the east tonight. Low pressure will approach Sunday and track south of the area Monday. High pressure will build to our north and west Tuesday and Wednesday while low pressure remains southeast of the Canadian Maritimes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 100 pm Update... Late March sun continues to impress as temperatures push towards 50 Downeast, and more locations in north rising into lower 40s. Adjusting some temps were the only changes to forecast this afternoon beside updating for observations. High cirrus will begin to move over the Central Highlands and Downeast through the afternoon, thickening into the evening and overnight hours. Prev discussion blo... 1020mb sfc high extending fm cntrl Quebec to ern MA wl continue to build east thru the overnight hrs. As winds become lighter drg the overnight expect temps to begin dropping under clr skies and snowpack acrs the north. Still expecting temps to dip into the teens acrs the North Woods by morning with 20s elsewhere. Skies wl be sunny tda as mixing allows temps to warm into the 50s over portions of Downeast. Elsewhere temps wl only be able to rise into the l/m 40s. Ridge axis wl be building over the FA drg the day leading to lgt winds. For tonight, winds wl be light and vrb with ridge mvg offshore aft 06z as system appchs fm the west. High clds wl begin to mv in fm the southwest in the evng and overspread the region drg the nighttime hrs. Lows wl still be able to drop into the 20s acrs the north and east given the light winds and extent of moclr skies. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A large area of low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes on Sunday as jet energy rounding the bottom of a Midwestern trough redevelops low pressure off Southern New England. The low will spread a mixture of snow and rain Downeast midday Sunday with snow reaching the north late Sunday afternoon. The latest guidance is showing an initial push of precipitation surging across the area Sunday evening as a function of lift over the eastern edge of the upper trough as secondary low pressure sliding off southern New England takes over, well ahead of the main low tracking into the eastern Great Lakes. From there, the guidance begins to differ. The GFS supports continued snow north, and a mix Downeast, primarily supported by the dynamic lift of the upper low tracking into western New England. The NAM, however, after an initial period of moderate to heavy precipitation, shows the blocking high over far eastern Canada pushing down and suppressing precipitation south as the secondary low tracks straight east, well south of Nova Scotia. Lighter more intermittent snow and rain may continue Monday into Monday night as the upper low moves over and the surface low continues east into the open Atlantic. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will build well to our north Tuesday into Tuesday night. This high will merge with the blocking high in eastern Canada and may back some moisture west into our area Wednesday into Wednesday night along with some warmer Maritime air. This could produce clouds and chances for showers through the mid-week period and possibly into Thursday. A new trough of low pressure and surface low may reach the east coast Friday, possibly combining with the large blocking high to our north to create a deep layer east wind, rain showers, and possibly wet snow over the higher elevations. The presence of the blocking high may mean this low will be slow moving possibly keeping clouds and rain and snow showers through much of the weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. NW winds will become near calm after 00z this evening. SHORT TERM: Sunday: Conditions lowering to MVFR then IFR from south to north Sunday in rain and snow. SE wind. Sunday night: IFR in low clouds, rain and snow. SE wind. Monday: IFR in low clouds. East winds. Monday night: IFR. NE winds. Tuesday: IFR becoming MVFR. NE winds. Tuesday night: MVFR to VFR Downeast, MVFR north. N winds. Wednesday: MVFR north. VFR to MVFR Downeast. NE winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through tonight under high pressure. Waves will slowly decrease to between 1-2 feet this evening. SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed late Sunday into Tuesday for NE winds, especially across the offshore waters. Winds should be below SCA Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Cornwell/Farrar Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Cornwell/Farrar/Bloomer Marine...Cornwell/Farrar/Bloomer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.