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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 241802
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
202 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push offshore tonight. High pressure will
build down from the northwest Monday into Tuesday then crest
over the area Tuesday night. High pressure will slide east of
the area Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Arctic cold front cross the area will push south this
evening and reach the coast around midnight. Some flurries and
scattered snow showers may continue to be along the front,
across central areas early this evening and further Downeast
later in the evening before the front pushes offshore late
tonight. Arctic high pressure building in from the northwest
will push much colder and drier air across the region later
tonight into Monday. Westerly winds are expected to be strong
aloft on Monday and forecast soundings show the mixing layer
reaching almost 10K ft late in the afternoon. Sustained winds
will be 40 to 45 kt at that level. This will result in some
strong wind gusts across the area with the strongest gusts
likely during the mid to late afternoon when the deep mixing
pulls momentum from the upper winds down to the surface. The
sky will be mostly clear Downeast. However, the north will be
partly cloudy where some moisture in the longwave trough aloft
will produce cumulus clouds. A few flurries can`t be ruled out
during the afternoon across the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A low pressure system exiting over the Canadian Maritimes will
leave a few lingering showers across Northern Maine at the start
of the period. Higher pressure will build across early in the
period and will dominate the weather through the end of the
period.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Used NWPSCG1CAR for seas in the
coastal waters. Used Wind gust by factor through 12z added 15
kts to wnds for gusts, used GYX Wnd Gust tool for Gust for the
remainder of short term. Used GFS for QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A high pressure ridge southeast of Maine will continue to move
east as a low southwest of James Bay will with its associated
front will move toward Maine reaching northwest Maine by
Thursday evening. The front will move through the state Friday
evening, but will move back across southern Maine as a warm
front early Saturday morning. The system will finally clear the
area Sunday afternoon. Higher pressure will build into western
Maine Sunday afternoon and will dominate the weather through the
end of the period.


Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the ECMWF solution. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected tonight through Monday
with the exception of any snow showers, mostly over central and
Downeast areas this evening. Gusty winds on Monday may result
in some turbulent conditions.

SHORT TERM: A few lingerings showers over FVE and CAR with MVFR
conditions early, otherwise VFR all sites through Wednesday
morning. MVFR with shower across FVE Wednesday morning, VFR
elsewhere. Low MVFR conditions conditions move into Maine from
northwest to southeast Thursday afternoon as a cold frontal
system moves into the state and will transit through Thursday
night through Friday morning, conditions improving to VFR by
Friday afternoon as the frontal system moves exits the region.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds should drop below SCA this evening as the front
approaches. Another SCA will likely be needed for gusty winds
Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: High pressure will dominate the waters through most
of the period. Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory for seas may be
required for Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Bloomer/Norton
Marine...Bloomer/Norton