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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 171658
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1158 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian High pressure will cross the region today. Weak low
pressure moves across the region Friday, followed by an Arctic
cold front Friday night and arctic high pressure on Saturday.
A Noreaster is expected to approach from the southwest Sunday
move through the Gulf of Maine Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12 pm update...
Quick update to temps as they are vry slow to rise under full
sun. No major chgs needed with this update.

Previous discussion blo...
Wind chill advisories remain up for the northern half of our
forecast area thru 9 AM. Thereafter, winds will diminish rather
quickly by late morning or early afternoon, as high pressure
continues to build east across the area. Otherwise, expect
mainly sunny skies today. Highs today across the north will only
be in the single digits above zero and 10 to 15 above central
and downeast.

The high moves east this evening, with mainly clear skies early
giving way to increasing clouds. Some radiational cooling is
likely thru early evening before the arrival of thicker cloud
cover after midnight. This should allow temperatures to fall
rather quickly after sunset, expect lows across the north to
fall to 5 to 10 below zero, and zero to 5 above central and
downeast. Some light overunning snow is expected to develop
across the region by daybreak Friday ahead of a weak area of low
pressure approaching from the west. Any snow accumulation by
daybreak is expected to be less than an inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly lgt sn will overspread the FA Fri morn, contg thru the
aftn before tapering to sct sn shwrs Fri eve and ending late Fri
ngt. Fcst sn totals attm look to be msly 1 to 2 inches with
this event attm, with some lctns ovr E Cntrl ptns of the FA
getting up to 3 inches. Sn amts alg the immediate coast may be
reduced by mixing with rn this aftn as milder marine air moves
onshore. Steady sn will taper to sct sn shwrs by erly Fri eve
and end later Fri ngt following this low. Another high
residence arctic air mass will move into the FA from N Cntrl
Can late Fri ngt into Sat morn with clrg skies and sharply
colder temps on very brisk NW winds, likely requiring wind
chill hdlns for much of our FA. Winds will diminish Sat aftn,
with very cold hi temps as some lctns across the far N will
struggle to get abv 0 deg F.

High clds will eclipse the FA from the SW by late Sat aftn as
an important low pres from the SW conts to organize as it apchs
from the SW. Clds from this system will thicken Sat eve/ovrngt
with sn moving into SW ptns of the FA by erly Sun morn with snfl
beginning for many lctns with temps well below zero F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest trends from the longer range models by tngt`s 00z model
run suite indicate a consistent track of the coastal sfc low to
affect our Rgn Sun and Sun ngt ovr recent prior model runs, with
just the CanGem an erly outlier (which is not impossible
considering the depth of arctic air xpctd to be entrenched ovr
our FA prior to this event. Precip type is still xpctd to
entirely sn for Nrn and Cntrl ptns of the FA, with a mix of
sleet and/or fzra still possible later Fri aftn/erly eve for
interior and spcly coastal Downeast areas and alg the NB border
as far N as SE Aroostook county after a sig to hvy amt of sn
there as well. A narrow band(s) of sig sleet and fzra
accumulation is possible somewhere in these areas on top of snfl
spcly considering total QPF potential with this event looks to
be in the 1.00 to 1.50 inch range across the NW hlf and around 2
inches for the SE hlf. Hyper low to mid lvl baroclinicity and
an atmospheric sub-tropical rvr bringing unseasonably high PWs
alg the Srn periphery of our FA in addition to strong upper
dynamics with the upper lvl trof accompanying the sfc low are
the main reasons for squeezing this much moisture out of the
atmosphere where llvl cold air prev dominated.

It`s still a little to erly to issue wntr stm watches with this
potentially important event, but if model guidance continues to
be consistent with track and fcst QPF with this storm, watches
could be issued as erly as Thu aftn. Consensus model solution
would have colder air rapidly returning to the SE hlf of the FA
ovrngt Sun, resulting in transition back to all sn before steady
sn tapers to sct sn shwrs by Mon and ends by Mon ngt.

Another shot of arctic air will arrive into the FA later Mon
with brisk winds contg into Mon ngt with lighter winds, some
moderation in temps, and clrg skies for Tue. The next chc for sn
or mixed precip will be Wed as low pres from the Midwest apchs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected until closer to 12z Fri as
low MVFR cigs move in ahead of next light snow event. Expect
that IFR snow will likely occur after this time for all but FVE
terminals thru end of TAF valid time.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR clgs and/or vsbys all TAF sites in lgt
sn on Fri, then improving to MVFR Fri eve and to VFR late Fri
ngt, contg so Sat and Sat eve. Clgs and vsbys will again lower
to IFR or less by erly Sun morn in sn, contg thru the day Sun
and Sun ngt before improving to MVFR conditions on Mon in sn
shwrs. A period of mixed precip is possible for Downeast TAF
sites late Sun aftn into eve.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 11 am,
then winds/seas will remain below SCA levels thru tonight. A
Freezing Spray Advisory remains in effect thru 10 AM today.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mostly SCA to sub SCA conditons Fri thru
Sat eve with mdt fzg spray likely late Fri ngt into Sat. The
next chc of possible gale force winds will be Sun ahead of apchg
low pres from the SW, depending on the track, and again later
Sun ngt into Mon behind the low. Kept close to WW3/NWPS blended
guidance for fcst wv hts.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda/Farrar
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda/Farrar/VJN
Marine...Duda/Farrar/VJN