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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 142106
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
406 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west tonight and crest
over the area Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the
southwest Thursday night into Friday then track into the
Canadian Maritimes Friday night. Cold with scattered snow
showers this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Our plan is to drop the current wind adv for our FA with
the trend of winds xpctd to be gradually, but steadily downward
going into the eve hrs. Otherwise, SC cld cvr and sct flurries
should will gradually diminish across the N into the eve with patchy
blsn across the far N also msly dissipating by mid eve. Even though
winds diminish by late ngt, there should still be enough of a breeze
durg the late ngt hrs to prevent much of radiational cooling xcpt
across most protected NW vlys by daybreak, keeping low temps from
potentially reaching exceptionally low values given the sn pack and
the caliber of the air mass.

Thu should begin fair with much lgtr winds as sfc hi pres crests the
FA from the W, with increasing hi cldnss from SSW to NNE late in the
day in advc of the next low pres system from the SE states.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Storm still on track for Friday with no significant change in
guidance over the last 12 hours. Still enough spread to greatly
impact the sensible weather in regards to total snowfall,
especially on the coast and across the far Northern Maine.
Essentially if the the further off the coast solution comes in
(GFS) camp, then the Downeast coast will get more snow then
forecasted. If the consensus forecast comes in, then still
looks like a mix on the Downeast coast cutting down totals with
higher amounts pushing further north into Maine. One thing that
is certain is it looks like the first plowable snow for the
Bangor region and the majority of Downeast with the Friday
morning commute being impacted by snow. Low quickly pushes out
Friday evening, with lingering snow across Northern Maine until
midnight. Saturday will have weak cyclonic flow aloft over the
area with some light snow shower activity for western areas and
high temps getting into the upper 20s and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence looks to be below average late this weekend
leading into Thanksgiving week. What we are confident about is
that this period will have well below avg temperatures with a
few shots of cold weather. In general the mean 500mb trough will
stay entrenched across the Northeast CONUS with multiple 500mb
shortwaves moving through with weak waves developing on the
surface cold fronts. In general western mountains will keep
light snow shower activity at times through this period. Overall
didn`t feel enough confidence on timing of pops, so broad
brushed with some higher pops over the terrain and on Monday as
the potential for another weak storm still exists. Overall we
should run 10 to 15 degrees below average for this period, with
the chance for a slight warm up on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR, xcpt MVFR vsbys attms with blsn and sct
flurries across Nrn most TAF sites until erly eve.

SHORT TERM: Significant aviation impacts possible on Friday with
snow causing low vis and ceilings to impact all TAF Terminals.
Conditions will improve by Friday night with no significant
aviation impacts expected this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Will cont with gale wrng or all of coastal waters
til just aft mdngt, with a follow-up SCA likely needed late tngt
into erly Thu morn. A pd of less than SCA winds/seas will
follow for late Thu morn thru the aftn. Went with a blend of
NWPS/WW3 guidance for fcst wv hts this update.

SHORT TERM: Possible GALE conditions on Friday as a coastal low
moves up the coast and crosses the Gulf of Maine during the day
on Friday. Seas will build to 10 feet over the outer coastal
waters on a E to NE wind.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through late
     Friday night for MEZ004>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Dumont
Long Term...Dumont
Aviation...VJN/Dumont
Marine...VJN/Dumont