Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211544 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1144 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be across the region through tonight. A weak area of low pressure will cross the area Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will begin to build back into the region through Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11:45 AM Update...Bright sunshine and strong subsidence is allowing temps to rise quickly. Raised midday temps and raised highs a couple degrees. Previous Discussion... Surface high pressure will drift over Quebec and northern Maine through this evening. Main effects of this will be mostly sunny skies and temps a few degrees cooler than Friday. Light NW flow will keep much of northern Maine in the 60s, while locations further south near Bangor and interior Downeast top out in the mid-70s. Offshore flow will let coastal Downeast in on temperatures near 70 as well. A few diurnal cumulus will try to develop, but as day shift mentioned, very strong subsidence along with little moisture in the low levels will keep many clouds suppressed. The high will continue into the Gulf of Maine Saturday evening, with winds shifting south and southwest. Overnight lows will remain cool in the north as the flow pattern does not strengthen until later Sunday. Downeast will stay a bit warmer overnight as warm air advection begins. With greater moisture content, clouds will begin to increase as well from SW to NE. The advancing warm air overnight sets the stage for a very warm Sunday, especially those that receive the most sun. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sun morning wl see sfc high building offshore as return flow returns to the region. Sun aftn wl feature H9 temps up around +20C which wl lkly yield high temps around 80F for a good chunk of the area tho immediate coast wl only warm into the u60s/nr 70 with onshore flow throughout the day. Sun evng may feature an isold shower in warm advection bfr increasing to nr lkly pops acrs the northwest aft 06z. 50-60kt LLJ lkly to be present acrs the north btwn 06 and 12z Mon with area in RRQ of upr lvl jet streak. By 18z Mon all med range guidance indicates cdfnt wl be appchg the international border with lkly pops acrs the north in the aftn. Temps wl lkly rmn abv normal on Mon but wl be some 5-10 degrees cooler acrs the north in cloudy and showery conds. Most models are closing off upr lvl energy late Mon night which results in cdfnt stalling acrs the CWA as a weak wv rides along the bndry ovrngt. Operational GFS is most progressive in driving the front thru Tue mrng with GEFS ensemble similar to rmng operational runs and wl trend fcst toward a wet soln thru the end of the short term pd. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Most of the area wl see showers on Tue as sfc low wl be mvg thru the state with H5 low closed off fm the mean flow. Expect that kicker wl drop into the nrn Plains Wed mrng with showers pulling into Canada. Brief s/wv ridge mvs into the region Wed night bfr next system appchs the area on Thu. Showers may occur thru the end of the week as upr trof zips thru bfr ridging starts to build in. Expect that temps wl avg out close to normal thru the end of the extndd pd. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR with NW winds 5-10 kts today, becoming light this evening and shifting SW tonight. Some patchy fog is possible after midnight in valley locations, lowering visibilities locally at terminals. SHORT TERM: Sun morning through Mon morning...MVFR cigs possible across northern terminals. VFR cigs expected over Downeast sites. SW winds 5-10kts. LLWS looks likely over northern terminals Sun night. Mon night through Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in showers at all sites as weak low pressure tracks through the state. Southerly flow will likely bring IFR vsbys fm BHB to HUL Tue morning into the afternoon hours. Southwest winds 5kts Mon night for southern terminals will become nw at all locations by Tue evening. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Waves and seas will be below SCA criteria today and tonight. Winds gusts will increase ahead of a disturbance late tonight, 10-15 kts. SHORT TERM: Seas wl increase to aoa 5ft Sun night into Tue as weak low pressure tracks north of the waters. Winds will likely remain just below SCA levels as stable airmass prevents strongest winds from mixing down to the water. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Cornwell/Bloomer Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Cornwell/Farrar Marine...Cornwell/Farrar

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