Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181448 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 948 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will crest over the region today. Low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes region tonight and track across the area Sunday. An upper trough will remain over the area Monday into Tuesday with high pressure building in for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 945 am Update: No sig chgs from the last fcst update. Obsvd low temps, which indicated a very chilly erly morn across our FA, alg latest hrly obsv temps/dwpts were used to re-fcst hrly temps into the aftn hrs with no chgs attm to fcst hi temps. Prev Disc: Upr wv currently located over NW MN wl head east into the Great Lakes region today. At the same time the sfc low wl head east thru the day. Very cold airmass resides over the CWA and with overrunning pcpn lifting into the area late this evng and into the overnight hours all locations wl start off as snow. Secondary low dvlpmnt is expected around 09z in the morning near the swrn Gulf of Maine in LFQ of upr lvl jet. Blyr looks to rmn below frzg with the exception of the immediate coast and outer islands where snow may mix with or change to rain around daybreak on Sunday as sfc temps warm to just abv frzg. However if GFS is correct with the location of the sfc low blyr would warm as far north as central Washington and Hancock cntys. GFS is the outlier as rmng guidance and EC ensembles have sfc low rmng out ovr the waters. Having gone with majority have kept pcpn as all snow outside of the outer islands. QPF amounts indicate a widespread 6-8 inches with amnts closer to 4-5 inches over the islands. Either way solid advisory amnts look to be the rule ovr the entire region, tho cannot rule out the potential for fgen banding but that potential looks to hv shifted ewrd into New Brunswick during the morning hrs. Overall, expect that this wl be a light and fluffy snow acrs the nrn and cntrl sxns which wl easily accumulate so cannot rule out 7+ inches somewhere but identifying where that area would be is one of vry low confidence at this time. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will be moving east away from the region Sunday night with scattered evening snow showers expected across northern areas, otherwise expect mainly cloudy skies overnight across the north and partly cloudy downeast. Monday will be a dry day with highs in the low to mid teens north and lower 20s central and Downeast. An upper trof will cross the region Monday night and Tuesday with a reinforcing shot of arctic air, with lows Monday night falling below zero all areas away from the coast. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the single digits above zero north and low to mid teens Downeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday night is expected to be a good radiational cooling night and have dropped temperatures several degrees from NBM. Will likely see low approaching -20F across the north Maine Woods by daybreak Wednesday. A moderating temperature trend is expected by midweek as a southwest flow develops with high temperatures by Thursday and Friday expected to climb well into the 20s across the north and into the lower 30s Downeast. Looks like it will be mainly dry through the long term period with the next chance of any organized precipitation not until next weekend. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR expected today though MVFR cigs will affect FVE, CAR and PQI for a few hours this morning. VFR cigs give way to IFR vsbys in -sn after 04z north of KHUL, while BGR and BHB drop to IFR after 02z. Potential for LIFR over Downeast terminals after 05z. SHORT TERM: Sun Night....MVFR in scattered evening snow showers northern terminals and VFR Downeast. NW winds Mon thru Wed...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will gust to SCA levels early this morning with moderate accumulations of freezing spray expected. Wind gusts will pick up to aoa 25kts later this evening into Sunday morning. A brief break is then expected through the day Sunday. Seas are trending down this morning before increasing Sunday morning in srly swell. Seas will remain elevated through the end of the near term. SHORT TERM: Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Sunday night into Monday, then winds/seas remain below SCA levels into mid week. Light freezing spray will be an issue Sunday night through monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Sunday for MEZ001>006-032. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for MEZ010-011-015>017-029>031. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...VJN/Duda Marine...VJN/Duda is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.