Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 202227 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 627 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will stall across the north tonight as the low tracks across the area. Low pressure will continue east through the Maritimes on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 6:27 pm: After collaboration with WFO Gray and SPC have cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch. One halfway decent cell is falling apart as it moves into southwest Penobscot County. Have removed all severe weather wording across the FA and just have isolated thunderstorms for the next few hours. Made some rather significant changes to the PoPs based mostly on the latest radar returns, but also gave consideration to the synoptic environment and the near term models. Previous discussion: A warm front will continue to move northward across the region this evening as low pressure moves to the west of New England. This will result in showers and thunderstorms tonight. The low pressure system will move across the very northern portion of Maine late tonight with showers continuing into Tuesday Morning. A cold front will also move around the back of the low tonight and approach the region from the west. Showers are expected to continue across the north on Tuesday as skies become partly cloudy across the far south. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tue night wl feature upr low mv into the Canadian Maritimes with lingering cyclonic flow acrs the region into the day Wed bfr ridging builds in. Expect that showers wl come to an end by Wed mrng with colder temps aloft and mocldy conds keeping temps down blo normal. If skies can clr Wed night with ridge axis building ovr the region vly areas may be able to drop under fcst mins Thu mrng. However, higher level clouds mvg in ahd of next system may impede radn`l cooling enuf that m/u30s acrs the North Woods is reasonable. Do not see any reason at this point to go lower, especially in areas that are currently active with the growing season (mainly south of a Van Buren-Greenville line). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Upr wv wl approach srn and wrn areas of the CWA Thu evening and overnight. Med range guidance is in much better agreement than it was yda with potential for MCS working its way out of srn Canada drg the overnight pd. Am not confident enuf to go with lkly pops this far out but confidence is increasing in the likelihood of seeing rain ovr wrn sxns Thur night. Aft system exits the region Fri morning expect that low clds and cooler temps wl be left in it`s wake with warmest temps acrs the north in the St. John Vly for Fri. Another wv wl appch fm the west on Sat with lkly showers expected drg the day. As this system mvs east zonal flow wl dominate the area`s wx thru end of the pd. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/IFR conditions tonight into Tuesday. VFR conditions are possible across the south Tuesday afternoon. SHORT TERM: With upper low continuing to influence northern terminals expect MVFR stratus to linger across northern terminals into Wed afternoon. VFR at all terminals Wed night through Friday, though may see MVFR restrictions move into BGR and BHB as showers approach from the north and west. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the Nam to initialize winds however will reduce model winds by 50 percent due to expected southwesterly winds and relatively cold sea surface temperatures (Mid 40s). Currently winds speeds are well under 10 kts. For Waves: Currently the primary wave system is southerly swell (around 5 feet/7 seconds). On Tuesday a secondary off-shore wind wave system will develop but southerly swell will remain the primary wave group. Will keep SCA for seas in place. Total Water Level: Surge guidance continues to indicate a negative surge late tomorrow into Wednesday as winds go off-shore. Will keep the Base Tide anomaly near zero. SHORT TERM: Wind gusts approach SCA levels Tue night in northwest flow and cold advection in wake of departing low. Winds wl diminish on Wed morning and remain below SCA levels through the end of the week. Seas rmn below 5 feet throughout the period though outer zones may flirt with SCA levels Wed morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...CB/Mignone/Farrar Marine...CB/Mignone/Farrar

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