Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 171115 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 715 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure approaches crosses the region Wednesday through Thursday. An occluded front approaches Friday, crosses the region Saturday, then exits across the Maritimes Sunday. High pressure returns to the area Sunday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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715 AM Update: Mostly clear skies are seen on visible satellite imagery this morning, with the last wisps of stratus across the Central Highlands dissolving as the sun rises. The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made due to current observations and trends. Previous Discussion: The surface axis of a ridge of high pressure is currently situated over southern New England, and will continue to gradually shift east into our area into this morning. Lingering mid-level moisture has maintained a deck of stratus across the Central Highlands, but as the high pressure moves in the resulting subsidence will continue to erode these clouds, and mostly clear skies will prevail through this morning. Enough mid level moisture will remain as the high continues to sit overhead for diurnal heating to result in a field of cumulus across the area, particularly the eastern half of the forecast area. This could lead to high temperatures being a few degrees less than other areas further west. Highs are forecast to reach up to around 50 degrees across the north and down through Washington county, while the Bangor area may lift into the mid to upper 50s. Breezy winds will return, with gusts 20 to 25 mph. Skies will clear out tonight after sunset, and winds are expected to become calm. This will lead to a radiational cooling night prime for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 20s across the north and around freezing Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure at the surface and aloft builds Thursday. A frontal system to the west will be blocked by the ridge and dissipate before reaching the area. Given dry air, the time of year and little cloud cover, went above guidance for Thursday high temps and may need to increase further with a deep mixed layer. That also affected dew points with reductions below guidance. Light winds mean the sea breeze can be expected to develop along the coast Thursday afternoon. The upper ridge and surface ridges crest over the area Thursday night. Expect another night with lows in the low to mid 30s. The ridge hangs on Friday, but high clouds may increase with the occlusion upstream. Went on the high side of guidance for highs and low side for dew points again on Friday. The warmest temps will probably be towards the eastern international border where sunshine will continue further into the day. For Friday night, the weakening occlusion is still expected to cross. Have increased PoPs, but QPF looks meager with no more than a tenth of an inch of rainfall. There is very little upper level support. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... In the wake of the occlusion, fairly mild air will remain in place and highs will shoot towards the mid to upper 50s. A trailing cold front sweeps across the area during Saturday with very little in the way of shower activity, but much drier air and gusty winds. May need to adjust dew points downward for the afternoon. An extended period of dry weather begins Saturday and continues well into next week. Temps look a little warmer than seasonable due to the expectation of plentiful sun and deep mixing overcoming fairly cold air aloft. As such, continued to go above guidance on highs and below guidance on dew points. Also bumped up wind gusts. The timing and evolution of dry northern stream shortwaves propagating southward from Canada early next week will have a lot of bearing on which days have the gustier winds and the strength of these gusts. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR cigs across all terminals today. Another round of SCT to BKN cumulus will move in through the afternoon, but cigs are expected to remain VFR. Skies will clear tonight across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts will increase 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts today. Winds will become light and variable tonight. SHORT TERM: Thursday through Friday...VFR with excellent vis and no cigs under FL050 expected. Light winds becoming southerly at 10 to 15 kt by Friday afternoon. Friday night into Saturday morning...MVFR tempo IFR due to cigs. Southerly winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwesterly 10 to 15 kt. Saturday afternoon through Sunday...VFR. West winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt Sunday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. Gusts to 20 kts likely through the day today. SHORT TERM: No significant weather is expected in terms of winds, seas or fog. Adjusted winds down slightly as air temps are generally warmer than water temps through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... A prolonged period of dry weather with low relative humidity and gusty winds is expected through next week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...AStrauser/MCW Marine...AStrauser/MCW Fire Weather... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.