Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 080553 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1253 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region from the west overnight and then move east Monday night. An occluded front will cross the area Tue. Another High pressure will build in from the southwest Tue night into Wed. On Thursday a low pressure system will move northeastward through southern Ontario, bringing a cold front through northern Maine on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 100 AM Update: Cirrus filaments continue to drift across the middle of the CWA tonight. This should have little impact on sfc temps w/ more broken skies to the south and west. Kept terrain detail in the overnight lows, pushing lows a bit lower around Oxbow/Masardis and the NW valleys. Prev Disc: The large high pressure system to the east of the Great Lakes has been making its way east towards Maine. Late this evening, the northern region could see some high clouds move in, but wont last long due to the loss of daytime heating and mixing. For tonight, clear skies and calm winds should allow for plentiful radiational cooling, causing temps to dip into the positive and negative single digits in the north and lower teens in the south. By Monday, the upper level ridge will building over the region from the SW, allowing for Partly sunny skies in the north and clear skies Downeast. Light NW winds and plenty of sun should help temps climb to near normal. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mon night a 500mb ridge axis is nosing over the area which intially keeps us dry with moisture beginning to advect northward over western New England. By Tue daybreak a weak warm front will lift northward through the FA with a cold front back across the Champlain Valley of NY/VT. 850-500mb RH values rapidly increase suggesting nearly clear skies with just a few clouds Mon night quickly becomes overcast by daybreak. The column will be warming considerably with 850mb temps rising from around -8C to -4C range but the key is they remain below zero. Enough forcing from the front with some moisture we can expect snow showers to develop. Timing looks to remain on track from previous forecasts with snow shower chances increasing after midnight across the North Woods and to the Route 1 corridor just before daybreak. As a decent shortwave trough moves overhead Tue morning, drier air will be rapidly pushing in across Midcoast Maine into the Bangor region. This will quickly bring snow shower chances to just isolated chances by mid morning with them coming to an end by noon. Elsewhere, across the North & Downeast we can expect snow showers to keep going till the cold front clears the FA by late afternoon. As it comes to snowfall totals for the most part a dusting with perhaps up to 1 inch across the North Woods & Northeast Aroostook County. As the cold front passes expect winds to shift northwest and temps begin to slowly fall. Given the increased moisture aloft across the north expect clouds to hold on with 850mb temps cooling slightly to between -7 and -9C. There is not a ton of cold air to work with so high temperatures in the mid 30s north to low 40s south will only fall back a few degrees with FROPA. Tue night into Wed, expect SFC ridging and the 500mb ridge to move into the area which will bring much warmer temperatures with it! The 500mb ridge begins to flatten over the FA which has mid & low level winds shifting from the NW to S-SW. A couple waves of increased 850-500mb RH will pass through which means we can expect mostly sunny skies south of the Highlands & Longfellow Mtns. Across the north we will see more clouds covering the skies but either way temps will respond to the warmer flow. Highs will be in the 40s area wide with the warmest spots from the Bangor region to Millinocket area in the mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... By Wednesday night the ridge axis will move off to the east and we will firmly be in the warm air sector ahead of a developing low in the Midwest. The warm air advection will continue into Friday, bringing unseasonably warm temperatures through the end of the week. It looks like the warmest day will be Thursday, with temperatures reaching the upper 40s in the northern portion of the forecast area and crossing the 50 degree mark Downeast. On Friday, clouds will move in ahead of the approaching low, which will modify temperatures a little bit, but they will remain in the mid 40s for most of the forecast area. Precipitation with the approaching front will start out as rain, but there is a good slug of cold air behind the front which will move in on Saturday. 850 mb temperatures will drop rapidly beginning Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday. At this time, it looks like most of the precipitation will be ahead of the colder air, so a late switch to snow showers is expected but not expected to last long. Expecting highs on Saturday and Sunday to be closer to normal, with temps only reaching the mid 20s to low 30s on Sunday. Forecast model solutions are showing some timing differences on when the front moves through, so expect some timing changes on precip arrival and change in precipitation type as we move toward the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR for all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts. VFR for Monday with NW winds 5 to 10 kts. SHORT TERM: Mon Night...VFR. Becoming MVFR clgs/vsby by daybreak from FVE to HUL with Snow Showers. VFR w/ SCT MVFR clgs & perhaps isolated snow and rain showers at BGR & BHB. W becoming SW winds 5-10kts. Tue...MVFR clgs/vsby North, VFR South. All sites VFR by sunset. SW winds shift NW after noon & increase 10-15kts. Wed...VFR. Low end VFR or MVFR clgs possible late day at FVE, CAR, PQI with cloud cover. NW Winds early shift SW by 12z at 5-15kts. Thu...VFR with light SW winds at all stations. Fri...MVFR in cigs/-RA moving in earlier at N`ern stations, progressing to S`ern stations by midday and into the evening. Possible IFR in SHSN later in the day, primarily at FVE, CAR and PQI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below SCA criteria as high pressure approaches from the west. NW winds becoming N tonight with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. For Monday, winds and seas still below SCA. NNW winds 20 kts in the morning, then becoming 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below SCA levels through the period. Winds may approach low end SCA late Tue PM & Tue Evening before dropping well below SCA again. Seas generally 1-3 feet with perhaps 4 foot seas Tue night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Cornwell/VJN Short Term...Sinko Long Term...LF Aviation...Cornwell/VJN/Sinko Marine...Cornwell/VJN/Sinko

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