Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261325 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 925 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach from the southwest today and cross the region this evening. High pressure will cross the area Tuesday and Tuesday night, then slide offshore through Wednesday. A couple of cold fronts will cross the region Wednesday night and Thursday followed by low pressure tracking well to the south Thursday night. High pressure then builds in Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 9:25AM Update... Rain, sleet, and light snow has begun to fall in the Downeast near Bangor. The system is moving a little faster than xpected, so adjusted the forecast to include the changes in precip type and outset. Updated the temperatures and dew points to include the current observations. Rest of the forecast is well set up. Previous Discussion... Low pressure will continue to track into northern New England through tonight. The system will bring rain to Downeast, with northern areas receiving a mix of precip types. With some convergence and moisture working in aloft ahead of the surface low, the Crown of Maine will see a few snow showers this morning, with a dusting possible. The light accumulation will be focused mainly along the NB border across the St. John Valley, but cannot rule out a couple snow showers making their way down to Caribou or PI before the main event arrives later this afternoon. Low level profiles show a fairly dry atmosphere, however fgen at around 700mb will help with formation and potentially further saturation in the lower levels. Later this morning, precipitation associated with the low tracking into New England will arrive across the Central Highlands. Cold air damming is expected to keep areas behind and north of the higher terrain right around freezing through the day. This will create periods of snow, sleet, and rain during the afternoon. It is expected that warmer air will finally push into the North Woods later, transitioning most of the mix to rain/snow. Some freezing rain/drizzle is possible at higher elevations and low, sheltered valleys where temps do not rise uniformly. However, significant accumulations are not anticipated. Elsewhere, rain is expected to be the primary precip type. QPF will be greatest where convergence is maximized w/ lift. This roughly coincides with Interior Downeast, along and south of the I-95 corridor from BGR to HUL. All precip will taper after midnight as cold air filters back in with a brief changeover to snow showers across the north. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... No high impact weather expected during the short term. High pressure across the Great Lakes will build toward the region Tuesday and settle over Maine Tuesday night. The high will retreat into the Atlantic Wednesday. There will be a return flow on the back side of the high and ahead of a cold front that will remain in Canada dropping south of James Bay late in the day. As far as the sensible weather, Tuesday will likely feature more clouds than sun across the north with perhaps a flurry in a few spots. Partly to mostly sunny Downeast after some early morning clouds. Highs will range from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s in Bangor and interior Downeast. Tuesday night will be clear to partly cloudy and cold with lows in the teens north and 20s south. Could not rule out a few single digits in the broad northwest valleys if there is some remaining snow on the ground. Wednesday, looks like a decent late October day with at least partial sunshine. Temperatures will be a little below average with highs in the low to mid 40s. There will be the chance of a little light rain or snow in the afternoon across the North Woods as a weak warm front and disturbance cross the area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The main system to watch is tropical storm Zeta which is forecast per the National Hurricane Center to move into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane Tuesday and make landfall along the Gulf coast midweek. The remains of this system are expected to merge with low pressure in the southern Plains and move off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night. The vast majority of the operational models and model ensembles keep the low far enough south that any significant moisture remains to our south. A fair number of the models/ensembles bring the moisture far enough north to clip the Downeast coast with a period of rain changing to snow, but would keep a potential early season snowstorm to the south of our region. It bares close watching, but given the relative agreement in keeping the system mainly to our south will not have more than chance PoPs along the coast with no precipitation forecast to the north of the Bangor Region and interior Downeast. In the wake of the system that passes to our south Thursday night and Friday, the pattern looks cold and mainly dry Friday through the upcoming weekend. High pressure along the Ontario/Qubec border Friday morning is expected to build into northern New England by Sunday morning and slowly move east of the area Sunday. The air mass remains cold for this time of year Friday and Saturday with some modest moderation Sunday. Overall, expect dry weather with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average as we close out October and start the month of November. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Ceilings will lower to MVFR/IFR through the day after a period of VFR this morning. Rain will overspread Downeast terminals and HUL, with rain and snow mixing across northern Aroostook sites. LLWS will move in later this evening and tonight from PQI to BGR. SHORT TERM: Tue & Wed: MVFR possible Tue morning at the Aroostook County terminals in BKN stratocu, otherwise, VFR conditions are expected Tue and Wed. Wed night and Thu: VFR. Thu night & Fri: potential for a period of IFR in snow or mixed snow/rain at KBHB later Thu night into Friday, and potentially MVFR ceilings as far north as KBGR. Elsewhere, VFR expected to prevail during this time. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas and winds below SCA. Waves will remain 2 to 3 ft with SE winds shifting NW late tonight. Rain will overspread the waters today. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out this evening. SHORT TERM: No clear cut periods of small craft advisory level wind or seas until late in the week. A few gusts may approach 25 knots in the cold air advection in the wake of a cold front Tuesday. The next chance of a small craft advisory would be later Thursday night into Friday as low pressure passes south of the waters, and at this time it looks like there likely will be a strong enough gradient between the low to the south and high to the northwest of the region that a headline will be needed, but this is still several days off. Potential for seas to build to 6 to 8 feet on the coastal waters on Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Cornwell/LaFlash Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Cornwell/LaFlash/CB Marine...Cornwell/LaFlash/CB

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