Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181723 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 123 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region today. Low pressure will move across the region Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1 pm Update... Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions. No major changes made this time frame. Original Discussion... High pressure will build across the region today through tonight with mostly clear skies. Areas of frost are expected across much of the forecast area tonight, with patchy frost along the Downeast coast. Have issued a Frost Advisory for Downeast areas tonight where the growing season has already started. High temperatures today will range from the mid 50s north, to around 60 to the lower 60s Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20s to around 30 north, to around 30 to the lower 30s interior Downeast with lower to mid 30s along the Downeast coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure is expected to move to the east of the region into the Atlantic early Saturday. Low pressure will then pass to the west of New England Saturday night bringing rain to the region. The low will then move to the north of the state Sunday with a cold front moving across the area bringing additional showers. High pressure and a cooler air mass is then expected to build into the region Monday. Will use a 50/50 blend of the Gfs and Nam for pops and QPF. The Super Blend was used for temperature. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will build in from the west Monday and crest over the region Tuesday resulting in dry conditions on both days. Low pressure is expected to approach from the west and cross New England Wednesday bringing rain to the state. The low is then expected to move to the east with high pressure moving in behind it on Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region today through tonight. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions early Saturday then IFR conditions Saturday night. Expect VFR conditions Sunday through Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. However, a few wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels early today. SHORT TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam/Gfs for winds. For Waves: A southerly fetch is expected to develop across the Gulf of Maine later Saturday into Sunday as low pressure passes to the west of New England. Southerly wind wave is expected to build to 6 to 7 feet/7-8 seconds Sunday then subside during the day Monday. Also expected a secondary, long period swell system (around 1 foot/13-14 seconds) on Sunday and Monday. Will use NWPS to initialize the waves. Total Water Level: Will raise Base Tide Anomaly up to 0.60 feet Saturday night into Sunday as southerly flow develops across the Gulf of Maine then gradually lower to 0.20 feet for the remainder of the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ015>017-029-030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Kredensor/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Kredensor/Norcross/Mignone Marine...Kredensor/Norcross/Mignone

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