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095
FXUS61 KCAR 301346
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
946 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in northern Quebec will extend south into Maine
today. Low pressure tracks south of the Gulf of Maine
Wednesday. High pressure returns on Thursday while another low
pressure passes to the south of the area. High pressure builds
into the area Friday and remains across the region into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
945 am update...A steep moisture gradient currently exists
across New England, with current mesoanalysis showing 0.9 to 1
inch PWATs in New Hampshire, and down to less than 0.5 inch
PWATs into the Central Highlands of Maine. As showers approach
the area from the low pressure currently sitting in northern
New York, the showers are quickly dissipating into this drier
air of the Caribou CWA. This is additionally proved by the 12z
KCAR sounding from this morning, with a deep layer of dry air
spanning from 915mb to 470mb. PoPs were reduced slightly late
this afternoon based on these observations and trends, as well
as a reduction in sky forecast since clear skies will hang on
longer than originally forecast.

Prev discussion blo...
Sfc ridge axis continues to build over the state tonight with
temps radiating acrs the north under clear skies. High cirrus is
gradually working in fm the west over top of the ridge and
while far wrn zones start off partly sunny this morning, mostly
sunny conditions are expected into mid- afternoon acrs the east.


H8 low pressure and associated lift with warm advection will
bring showers to the Central Highlands this evening. Scattered
showers are expected tonight, mainly to the south of a Jackman
to Houlton line. Mostly likely areas to see rain will be in the
Central Highlands toward Downeast tonight. Further to the north,
dry air associated with lingering high pressure will keep most
of the showers at bay acrs nrn Aroostook. Sfc low will cross
south of the Gulf of Maine late tonight with showers winding
down toward morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A progressive pattern aloft with weak weather disturbances in the
flow, but no significant weather systems are expected to affect the
area. On Wednesday, one shortwave is forecast to exit to the
east of the area early in the morning with surface high pressure
to build into the area. Morning clouds will likely give way to
a partly sunny afternoon with seasonable temperatures.

The ridge remains across the area into Wednesday night as a
weak low pressure moves out of Ontario and into western Quebec
with an increase in clouds. The weak system crosses the area
Thursday with the best chance of showers across the southern
half of the FA. During this time an area of low pressure in the
Maritimes slowly retrogrades to the west, but moisture from this
low should remain north and east of the area. QPF on Thursday
will likely not amount to more than one to two tenths of an
inch, and the majority of areas even across our southern zones
will probably not get a tenth of an inch. Some of the models
such as the Canadian would keep the northern half of the FA dry
all day. Temperatures Thursday will again be close to average.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
No high impact weather systems are expected into early next
week. The region will remain in a bit of a block Thursday night
into Friday as low pressure remains east of the area in the
Maritimes and a ridge slowly builds toward the area from the
west. There will be a continuation of near average temperatures
and it should remain mainly dry as any showers from the low in
Canada should remain east of the area.

Over the weekend, a ridge axis builds into the area on Saturday and
begins to move east Sunday.  Saturday looks dry and a bit milder,
although a seabreeze should keep highs cooler along the coast. Most
inland areas should get into the low to mid 60s.  As the ridge moves
east Sunday there is more of a return flow and there will probably
be a bit more in the way of clouds and the chance of a shower,
although most areas will remain dry.  Highs could get well into the
60s inland, but more of a south flow will keep it cooler along the
coast and also prevent it from becoming as warm as it could be if we
had more of a downslope flow. Forecast confidence decreases
late weekend and early next week, but it appears that a front
approaching from the west will bring with it an increasing
chance for showers by Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR over northern terminals next 24 hours. For HUL
and sites south, expect VFR through the evening hours before
diminishing to MVFR cigs at BGR and BHB around 07z and HUL
around 09z. Only expecting light showers at Downeast terminals
late tonight with HUL on the northern side of the rain shield.

SHORT TERM: Wed: VFR with light and variable wind.

Wed night & Thu: Mainly VFR, but MVFR possible, especially at
KBGR and KBHB in any showers. E/NE wind around 5 knots.

Fri through Sat: VFR with E/NE wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming SE
Sat afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels
today and tonight. Wind gusts will approach 20kts over the outer
waters early this morning before diminishing by mid-morning.

SHORT TERM: Both the wind and seas are expected to remain below
small craft advisory levels Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Buster
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...AStrauser/Buster/CB
Marine...AStrauser/Buster/CB