Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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111 FXUS61 KCAR 191651 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1251 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will cross the State this afternoon into tonight brining some rain to the region. A cold front will sweep across the region on Sunday with rain ending by the afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update 12:50 PM...Raised temps a few degrees across the area. Also modified cloud cover a bit to go partly to mostly sunny early this afternoon with clouds increasing from the southwest later this afternoon. Rain is not expected to move in until this evening. Previous Discussion... Strong high pressure will move east into the Gulf of Maine this morning. At the same time low pressure will approach the region from the west and pass to the west of New England Tonight bring rain to the region. A cold front behind the low will then approach from the west late Tonight into Sunday Morning with showers persisting into the morning. Will use a blend of the NAM and GFS for pops and QPF. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Sfc low wl be appchg Newfoundland/Labrador by the start of the period with cdfnt nearing the international border by 12z Sun. Front mvs thru most of the CWA drg the mrng hrs and lkly appch the Downeast areas by 18z. Given the uncertainty of timing hv opted not to include thunder in at this point. Temps expected to top out slightly abv normal Sun aftn bfr cold advection really mvs in drg the evng. NW flow conts as upr lvl troffing rmns acrs the northeast. Temps expected to be blo normal acrs nrn zones on Mon with temps nr normal in Downeast areas. Skies wl be sunny throughout the day with little in the way of pcpn expected as airmass rmns dry. Deep mixing wl allow for gusty nw winds on Mon with gusts approaching 25-30 mph acrs the north in the aftn. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The longwave pattern drg the extndd pd features troffing acrs the east with ridging building thru the center of the conus thru the end of the week. The next system to impact the CWA wl be on Wed. Med range guidance disagrees on frontal bndry position drg the day with GFS mvg it to along the coast by 18z Wed while EC is a tad slower and CMC slower still. Given uncertainty hv kept it as showers throughout the area tho thunder wl exist in the aftn depending on timing. High pressure wl then build in briefly for a time with next shot of pcpn mvg in twd the end of the week. Warmest temps thru the long term wl lkly be on Tue as most areas wl rise into the 70s tho onshore flow wl lkly keep the immediate coast in the u50s. Remainder of the week wl feature temps slightly blo normal as nw flow conts acrs the northeast. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions through this morning then MVFR/IFR conditions later this afternoon and tonight. SHORT TERM: IFR Sun morning will improve to MVFR late in the morning and eventually becoming VFR. Expect VFR thru Tue night and possibly dropping to MVFR/IFR Wed mrng as next system approaches from the north. Gusty nw winds expected on Mon afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam/Gfs for winds. For Waves: Southerly swell (2-3 feet/8 seconds) remains the dominate wave system this morning and will remain the primary wave group today into this evening. Later this afternoon a more southeasterly fetch will develop across the Gulf of Maine in response to low pressure passing to the west. Southeasterly wind wave will become the primary wave system this evening and build to 5-6 feet/6-7 seconds by late tonight. As a result plan to issue an SCA starting this evening at 03Z for outer waters only. Will use NWPS to initialize the wave grids. Total Water Level: will run an anomaly of 0.60 feet through Sunday then gradual lower. SHORT TERM: SCA continues on Sunday for outer waters with winds gusting to aoa 25kts in wake of cold front. Seas in southerly swell will remain above SCA levels until late Sun night. Expect seas and winds to remain below SCA through the middle of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Hewitt/Mignone/Farrar Marine...Hewitt/Mignone/Farrar

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