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000
FXUS62 KTAE 270129
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
929 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

No updates appear necessary to the forecast this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

High pressure at the surface continues to dominate conditions for
states along the Eastern Seaboard. This synoptic pattern should keep
rain chances at a minimum and allow for a steady southeasterly wind
throughout the region. An upper level ridge will build east of the
Mississippi River over the weekend with heights as high as 586 dm
over the tri-state area, above normal for this time of year. With
ridging overhead, expect above average temperatures for Saturday.
However, upper and mid level clouds associated with a system over
the great plains, will roll in from the west tonight and persist
throughout tomorrow afternoon. Cloud cover may keep low temperatures
a tad bit higher than last night and should keep high temperatures
to the mid-80s for the area. As a result, confidence for fog is also
low as dewpoint depressions will be slightly larger than the
previous morning due to the higher minimum temperatures and winds
will be slightly more elevated.

Other than some gusts of up to 20 Kts in the afternoon, Saturday
should be another dry and pleasant day to start off the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Surface high pressure currently centered off the east coast of New
Jersey, is expected to progress equatorward off the coast of
Georgia and Florida by Sunday. As the surface high approaches the
region, a tighter pressure gradient will continue to develop
across the region. This will lead to progressively windier
conditions on Sunday and Monday. During the overnight/morning
periods, easterly/southeasterly surges of wind at SC.Y levels are
expected across the marine zones across the forecast area. During
the afternoon and evening periods, these winds will briefly drop
to small craft exercise caution conditions. Outside of the
aforementioned hazardous marine conditions, the surface high
pressure combined with upper level ridging through Sunday night
will keep rather fair weather across the region. Expect lows
Sunday morning in the low 60s, and high temperatures climbing
into the low to mid 80s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The extended forecast will predominantly remain warm and dry for
much of the region through the next work week as upper level
ridging and surface high pressure remain in place across the
Eastern Conus and Southeast respectively. A small piece of
shortwave troughing, and associated piece of mid-level vorticity
is expected to break off from a northeastward propagating longwave
upper level trough currently across the central plains is
expected to eject eastward through the early portion of the work
week. As this aforementioned shortwave approaches the region, it
is expected to weaken as it enters the tri-state area. Currently,
it looks like dry air will remain in place across the region, and
limit the amount of precipitation that could develop across the
region. Current forecast PoP values are around 10% or less for
much of the forecast area. Overall, the upper level ridge and
surface high pressure look to remain entrenched enough across the
region to prevent systems from entering the tri-state area.
Forecast high temperatures look to climb into the upper 80s to low
90s through the end of the forecast period. Low temperatures also
look to remain above average, with temperatures dropping into the
low 60s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across all sites through the
TAF period. Gusty winds will occur at all sites beginning 12-15z,
continuing into the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Elevated southeast winds to continue into the weekend, with
advisory level conditions overnight and into tomorrow afternoon
across waters west of Apalachicola. The strongest winds are
likely to be via nocturnal easterly surges, especially late
Saturday to early Sunday. Winds and seas will relax to more
favorable conditions early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Warm, dry, and somewhat breezy conditions are forecast through
the weekend thanks to a strengthening pressure gradient across the
region. Southeast winds prevail much of the period with afternoon
seabreezes expected from both the Gulf and the Atlantic. High
dispersions overtake parts of the FL Big Bend tomorrow afternoon,
followed by greater coverage into portions of SW GA & SE AL Sunday
and Monday. Given the lack of significant rainfall the past
couple weeks and the aforementioned conditions anticipated, there
could be some fire concerns in the coming days via drying fuels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Rain chances continue to remain low to near negligible through
the next 7 days. Minor flooding on the Aucilla and Suwanee rivers
continues; however, both rivers are continuing to fall and should
drop below flood stage in the next couple of days. Overall, there
are no flooding concerns given the dry pattern across the
forecast area that is expected to continue for the next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   64  84  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   67  81  67  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        64  84  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        63  82  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      63  84  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    61  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  76  69  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ750-
     752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Porcelli
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM....Bunker
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Porcelli
HYDROLOGY...Bunker