243
FXUS62 KTAE 131957
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
357 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The MCS that has been moving across the region today has push rain-
cooled air across out Alabama, Georgia, and Panhandle counties,
including the Gulf waters south of the Panhandle coast. The
southeast Big Bend and Lower Suwannee Valley still has convectively
untainted air, with Cross City observing a sultry T/Td of 84/70 at 3
pm ET.

Now that we know the exiting MCS pushed an outflow boundary so far
south, it will shade the track of the next MCS --- currently over
southeast Texas --- further south as well. It will quickly race east
this evening and overnight in the base of the shortwave trough
spinning over the Ozarks, tracking east along the northern Gulf
Coast. The bulk of the severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat
early Friday morning will be over our Florida counties and over the
Gulf waters. The inland extent will depend on how far north the
leftover boundary can rebound northward.

For the Flood Watch, have trimmed it back from our Alabama counties
and most southwest Georgia counties, while expanding it through
Madison and Lafayette Counties to the Suwannee. In the watch area,
an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain is forecast, with spotty amounts
of up to 8 inches possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Today`s front attendant to its Parent Low is slated to gradually
make its eastward exit from the region during the short-term period.
As this boundary does so, it should continue to provide a focus for
showers/thunderstorms oriented in SW-NE fashion from Apalachee Bay
into the Suwannee Valley & parts of South-Central GA late Tuesday
through early Wednesday. Heavy rain appears to be the biggest
concern with this activity at the aforementioned locations where
training convection is possible. As such, a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 4) is in place by the WPC in their Day 3 Outlook - valid 12Z
Wednesday to 12Z Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out, either.

Improving weather is expected from NW to SE on Wednesday, which will
pave the way for temporarily quiet conditions by Thursday. Forecast
high temperatures are mostly in the 80s (isolated 90 degrees) while
lows "cool" from upper 60s/near 70 Wednesday AM to mid/upper 60s
Thursday AM. The latter is attributed to pre to post-frontal airmass
transition.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A weak upper ridge briefly translates east across the region on
Thursday, so expect a convective lull until Friday when yet another
storm system moves in from the west. The environment looks favorable
for scattered showers/thunderstorms, some of which could be strong
to severe with the capability of producing heavy rainfall. Unsettled
weather persists into next weekend as troughing overspreads the
Eastern US. However, an upstream ridge building eastward likely
ushers improving conditions near the end of the long-term period.

High temperatures in the 80s with lows in the 60s will be common.
The warmest readings are expected Thursday afternoon when modeled
upper heights peak at around 584-586 dm. Therefore, look for
widespread upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices a few degrees
warmer during that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The bulk of today`s convection has now passed the terminals, but a
few hours of trailing stratiform rain with embedded thunder will
continue until almost sunset. The main challenge will then turn to
timing and strength of the next cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms. This should arrive at the terminals during the late
night and early morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The West Tampa Buoy (42036) reported a south wind around 15 kts with
3-ft seas and a dominant period of 4 sec. Clusters of thunderstorms
continue to move through the waters this afternoon. Additionally,
coastal observations in the western FL Panhandle have been
frequently gusting 25 to 30 kts in response to a wake low from
earlier maritime convection.

From CWF Synopsis...Multiple rounds of thunderstorm clusters will
traverse the waters through Tuesday, bringing strong to severe wind
gusts, possible waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Advisory to
near advisory conditions are still expected early Tuesday into at
least Wednesday morning. Frontal passage occurs Wednesday afternoon
with improving weather from west to east. Cautionary winds and seas
are likely until Wednesday evening. A lull in maritime convection is
on tap for Thursday, followed by renewed chances for thunderstorms
heading into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A couple of additional rounds of thunderstorms will affect the
districts through Tuesday, bringing widespread wetting rains, with
some flooding possible under downpours. Some thunderstorms could be
severe. Drying westerly flow will kick in on Wednesday, when deep
mixing heights and moderate transport winds will support high
afternoon dispersion.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The Flood Watch (in effect until Tuesday evening) was updated this
afternoon to remove SE AL and most of SW GA with an eastward
expansion to include our remaining FL counties, minus Dixie.
Potential for additional waves of heavy rain capable of flash
flooding still exist as a lingering frontal boundary slowly
translates eastward. Updated forecast amounts through Wednesday are
widespread 2-4 inches, isolated 6-8 inches. Highest values are
along/south of the I-10 corridor and are well aligned with the WPC
Day 2 Slight Risk (level 2 of 4).

Dry weather is expected on Thursday before more rain arrives Friday-
Saturday from the next storm system. Another 1 to 2 inches are
forecast. The longer-term concerns are riverine flooding, depending
on where the heaviest rain ultimately falls. Future rises in the
Ochlockonee & Apalachicola basins appear reasonable.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  82  70  89 /  80 100  40  10
Panama City   70  81  72  85 /  80 100  30  10
Dothan        67  82  68  85 /  70 100  20  10
Albany        66  80  68  84 /  80 100  40  10
Valdosta      68  82  70  87 /  90  90  40  20
Cross City    69  85  70  86 /  70  70  80  50
Apalachicola  71  81  74  83 /  70  90  50  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-108-
     112-114-115-118-127-128.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for GAZ155-156.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for
     GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...IG3