448
FZAK80 PAFC 102250
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
250 PM AKDT Friday 10 May 2024

FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 15 May 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to high.

SYNOPSIS...A series of lows will move east across the Aleutian
Islands toward the Gulf of Alaska through Monday. High pressure
builds over the southern Bering Sea Tuesday and Wednesday. Over the
Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, weak low pressure will dissipate by
Monday and high pressure will strengthen through Wednesday.

The main ice edge extends from near Quinhagak to 60N 171 30W to 59
30N 172 39W to 60 43N 179 11W and continues in Russian waters.
The ice edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
near Quinhagak to to 30 nm southeast of Saint Matthew Island to 50
nm south of Saint Matthew Island to 275 nm southwest of Gambell and
continues in Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 nm to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 nm to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds will be light and variable through
Wednesday. Pack ice will remain consolidated against the shorefast
ice with little change.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds will remain out of the north through
Saturday, then will be light and variable through Monday. Southerly
winds will develop Tuesday and Wednesday as a low approaches from
the west. The main ice movement will be Tuesday and Wednesday when a
new polynya is likely to form off the Icy cape to Point Barrow
coastline.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-
PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-
PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island waters-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-
PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ412-Bering Sea 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
PKZ414-Bering Sea East of 171W-
PKZ756-Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 nm-
PKZ758-Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 nm-
PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-
PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-
PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ766-Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is moderate. Overall, north winds will persist over the ice pack
through Monday, then southerly winds will spread eastward across the
Bering Sea through Tuesday and then shift to westerly on Wednesday.
The ice pack in the Bering Sea will continue to thin, especially
south of Saint Lawrence Island. Expect the ice pack to drift with
the winds, with an overall drift to the east through Wednesday.

Shorefast ice from the Kuskokwim Delta through the Yukon Delta has
not shown signs of much degradation as of yet, but is expected
within the next couple of weeks as seasonal warming continues.

&&
Schreck