939
FXAK69 PAFG 111124
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 AM AKDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
No significant change to the forecast as shower chances continue
for the next several days. Winds through the AK Range passes have
over performed overnight and a Wind Advisory has been issued
through 10 AM for gusts as high as 55 mph along the Richardson
Highway north of Trims Camp. Temperatures will be noticeably
warmer today across much of the Interior and West Coast. This
warming trend continues for the West Coast tomorrow while the
North Slope and Interior drop a few degrees. A Flood Watch
continues for the Yukon River due to an ice jam 12 miles upstream
from Circle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...
The 00Z deterministic models initialized relatively well. A 527
decameter low was located 150 miles north of Utqiagvik. To the
east of Barter Island, there is a weak shortwave moving north.
South from there, there is a ridge with embedded shortwaves riding
along it from southwest to northeast. This is all connected to a
much larger 576 decameter ridge over the Pacific Northwest. A 523
decameter low was centered near Point Heiden with an inverted
trough extending northwest to St. Paul Island, then northeast from
Hooper Bay to the Central Brooks Range. A shortwave along the AK
Range will surge northward today, providing the current southerly
gap winds, then fuel a few rain showers this afternoon in the
Northern Interior.

Surface Analysis...
At 09Z a 995 mb low was located near Point Heiden and is expected
to continue weakening as it gets into the Gulf of Alaska this
afternoon. A 1009 mb low was located 150 miles north of Utqiagvik
will continue to drift north and fill through Sunday evening. A
relatively weak 1018 mb high extends from Norton Sound northward
through the Brooks Range and towards Chalkyitsik. This is weak and
will be overtaken by the low to the south. A subtle low is
stationed over the Eastern Brooks Range with a stationary front
extending along the Brooks Range and into the Yukon.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A warming trend this weekend, but that`s about it in terms of
changes. Other than some isolated rain showers near the Nulato
Hills and snow showers in the Bering Strait, much of the area will
remain dry today. Tomorrow, showers will become a bit more
numerous, but mostly south and east of Galena. There is also a
chance for a thunderstorm as well. Monday comes with some
uncertainty. There is a strong shortwave trough dropping south
from the Chukchi Sea which may promote a few showers and an
isolated thunderstorm south and east of Huslia, but there will be
quite a bit of dry air aloft which may ease any shower chances.
Nonetheless, the greatest risk for showers as of now remains
around the AK Range. No significant weather hazards are
anticipated during the forecast period, but we are monitoring the
potential for a Bering Sea low next week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Today will be a few degrees warmer across the Interior with most
locations staying dry. There is a risk for a few showers in the
Northern Interior, but they will be hit or miss. Tomorrow will be
the most active day of the weekend as a low moves from south to
north and stations itself around Eagle. Numerous showers will
begin to develop around midnight to 3 AM tonight in Northway and
the Upper Tanana Valley. These gradually move north with showers
likely from Delta Junction to Eagle by midday. In the afternoon,
thunderstorms may begin to develop in the higher terrain north
and east of Fairbanks. During the evening, a few showers and
isolated storms will try to drift south over the Fairbanks Bowl
and this will be our highest chance for rain. Overnight, we lose
the thunderstorm potential, but rain showers will persist in the
Eastern Interior. Monday comes with another risk for showers and
storms across the Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of locally dense fog will hang around the Arctic Coast with
a few snow showers possible as well, especially for the
Northwestern Arctic Coast. Other than these isolated snow showers,
the highest probability for precipitation comes in the form of
rain and snow showers in the Central and Eastern Brooks Range
through Monday afternoon. Expect high temperatures in the 20s
along the coast with 30s in the Brooks Range through early next
week. No significant weather hazards are anticipated for the
foreseeable future but we are monitoring the potential for a
Bering Sea low late next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
More of the same across the Interior with showers and Isolated
thunderstorms. The only impactful system we are monitoring is the
potential for a Bering Sea low Wednesday into Thursday. The ECMWF
and GFS both pick up on this feature and are in decent agreement
while the CMC is the outlier bringing a low into the Bering Sea,
then dropping it to the Aleutians. There is a potential for strong
southerly winds along the West Coast with heavy precipitation.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 through this weekend.
Isolated to scattered showers are forecast off and on throughout
the weekend as more disturbances move through the area. There will
be isolated thunderstorms as well, especially in the higher
terrain of the Eastern Interior. Southerly gap winds of 20 to 30
mph with gusts to 55 mph are forecast early this morning in
Isabel Pass. East-Southeast winds in Delta Junction will gust to
45 mph this morning, then decrease this afternoon. Near- critical
fire weather conditions are forecast with minimum RH values of 20
to 30%.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday morning. As of
yesterday evening, a persistent ice jam remains 12 miles upstream
from Circle. The jam has been in place for 5 days without any
significant changes. Since yesterday, water levels have dropped
above the ice jam and downstream at Circle. The braided channels
near Circle continue to melt slowly. Chunk ice and small pans can
easily pass by Circle and across the south bends. A large section
of intact ice 4 miles long remains above Circle. When that breaks
up, there is a small chance it could cause an ice jam and minor
flooding. The gradual breakup trend is expected to continue with
the ice at Fort Yukon slowly breaking up over the next few days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
&&

$$