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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 161908
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
308 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure over southern New England will bring dry weather
through mid week. It will be cooler Wednesday along the coast with
sea breezes. Isolated to scattered showers across the interior
Thursday with slightly below normal temperatures. Dry on Friday with
high pressure in control. A cold front brings another round of light
rain showers late Friday through Saturday. Turning drier Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

Full sunny skies out there for many in southern New England with the
exception of some widely scattered diurnal cumulus clouds (though
far fewer than yesterday). This combined with temperatures currently
in the mid to upper 60s are making for a fantastic Spring day across
the region under dry northwest flow. The quiet weather continues
tonight beneath a building mid level ridge and surface high
pressure. This leads to clear skies and light winds (decoupling
boundary layer) tonight allowing for efficient radiational cooling.
This means lows dipping into the upper 30s in our typical cold
spots, closer to the mid 50s along the coast and in urban
centers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

The mid level ridge axis shifts directly overhead on Wednesday
leading to sunny skies for a good portion of the day and dry weather
all day. The skies will fill in with high clouds from west to east
starting mid morning, thickening and lowering through the day ahead
of a warm front. Temperatures during the day will be quite different
along the coast compared to inland locations thanks to a seabreeze.
By afternoon we expect temps in the low to mid 50s along the coast
and low to mid 60s inland. The better plume of moisture arrives
after sunset ahead of a shortwave pushing into the eastern Great
Lakes. There continue to be considerable discrepancies amongst the
guidance as to how far east into SNE the PWAT plume pushes, but
ensembles are in agreement that the far better chance of wet weather
will be over western MA/CT where the much more moisture is present
and upslope flow into the terrain will enhance lift. The GEFS and
EPS put the chance of measurable rain over 90% in western MA/CT and
less than 30% in far eastern MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Highlights

* Isolated to scattered showers on Thu, mainly across the interior,
  with slightly below normal temperatures.

* Dry for much of Fri with temps returning to seasonable levels.

* Cold front brings scattered showers late Fri through Sat. Mild
  temperatures return.

* The temperature roller coaster continues, with a return to near
  normal temperatures and dry weather for Sun into Tue.

Southern New England will be dealing with another mid level omega
block. This time through, we should initially be located beneath the
ridge portion of this block. Currently expecting this mid level
ridging to move off to our east towards this weekend, leading to a
transition to a broad mid level trough early next week.

At the surface, high pressure should remain in control of our
weather into Friday morning. Thus, mainly dry weather expected,
although there could be a risk for scattered showers towards its
edges, which would be mainly across the western half of southern New
England both Thursday and Friday. A slow moving front Saturday
should continue the risk for showers, before high pressure arrives
late this weekend into early next week.

Stayed close to the NationalBlend solution for this portion of the
forecast. Can see a scenario where rainfall chances could be lowered
in later forecasts for Thursday and Friday.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.

This afternoon...High Confidence.

VFR today with NW winds increasing to between 8 and 13 knots
with a few gusts over 20 knots developing by early afternoon.

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. Calm/light NNW winds.

Wednesday...High Confidence.

VFR. Light N winds becoming variable and remaining light during
the afternoon inland, while sea breezes develop around 10 knots
along the coast.

Wednesday night...High confidence.

VFR for all terminals to start. IFR cigs move into western MA/CT
terminals after 06z in showers. Light S winds becoming SE.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Scattered SHRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Isolated
SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance SHRA.

Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR
possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Wednesday Night...High Confidence.

Weak pressure gradient will keep winds & seas below small craft
advisory thresholds through Wednesday night. No fog or vsby
issues expected.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Isolated rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/BW
MARINE...Belk/BW
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
