Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 261936
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
336 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and showery conditions are expected for the next couple of days
as a front stalls over the area.  Expect waves of rain showers,
interspersed with some dry spells.  Meanwhile, low clouds will
remain locked in place over southeastern Vermont with some isolated
patchy freezing drizzle possible tonight over higher elevations of
Windsor, Orange, and Rutland Counties.  Snowmelt resulting from the
warm temperatures will result in river rises towards the end of the
week. Cooler conditions are expected for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...The Green Mountains will mark the
delineation tonight between two different types of weather
conditions. Areas east of the Green Mountains will continue to
see onshore flow overnight with persistent low clouds. Within
this area, some patchy drizzle is possible overnight over
southeastern Vermont. Use caution traveling tonight in this
area as some isolated areas may be slick. Best chances for
patchy freezing drizzle are in higher elevations (mainly above
1000 ft) of western Windsor County, western Orange County, and
eastern Rutland County. Given the warm temps today (pavement
temps in these counties are in the upper 40s to low 50s as of
Tue afternoon), not enough of a concern to warrant an advisory,
but may issue a Special Weather Statement to cover the
potential for some isolated slick areas. With the warm air
advection in place, any areas that maintain a snowpack could see
some patchy fog.

Meanwhile west of the Greens, a front will push into northern New
York tonight, bringing some scattered rain showers and some
breezy overnight winds from the south. Expect gusts overnight
10-20 mph over the northern Adirondacks and the northern
Champlain Valley. With the breezy south winds, tonight`s lows
will be mild in NY and western VT. Showers will come to an end
Wednesday morning over NY, but will linger in Vermont during the
day as the front stalls in the vicinity. Vermont will see
several waves of rain showers move through Wednesday as upper
level waves ride along the front. There will be some dry periods
during the day between waves of rain, so the entire day won`t
be a washout. Wednesday`s temperatures will again be above
normal, especially over NY and the Champlain Valley where
temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 50s. Total rainfall
amounts for Wednesday will be between 0.10 to 0.25 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 414 AM EDT Tuesday...On Wednesday night, a decaying cold front
will shift east into northern New York. There`s some question on
whether it washes out entirely before reaching out area or not. If
it does make it, there should be a few showers along the boundary.
If it does not make it, it is hard to say because there`s even
question on whether there is still some positive thickness advection
across eastern Vermont. I suppose this would define the airmass as
"junky" with spotty showers streaming northeast along the thermal
gradient that remains along the washed up front. Lingering warm air
means temperatures will likely remain above freezing ranging in the
mid 30s to lower 40s.

During the day, an embedded shortwave within the longwave troughing
across the eastern CONUS, in conjunction with some convective
activity along the coastline, will send a surge of moisture
northward. Where that thermal gradient is will play a large part in
whether it crosses here. Forecast guidance is split between dry or
very wet, with only a few middle ground solutions in some ensembles.
What we`ll have to watch is another embedded shortwave a bit closer
to the upper low that digs southeast about the same time, which will
advect dry air into the region. This will result in a very sharp
precipitation/PoP gradient. If the northern stream system is
progressive, most precipitation should remain well east. There`s
quite a bit of spread with this. The forecast employs a technique
often used this cold season with these high uncertainty events. It`s
a blend of blends, and future updates will follow statistical trends
where it needs to be taken. High temperatures in the 40s should
support snowmelt across the region as well. If there`s a westward
shift with the moisture plume, then we`ll have to keep a close watch
on how much liquid is getting into our rivers. Some probabilistic
guidance indicates sharp rises, potentially near minor flooding at
Otter Creek at Center Rutland and the Mad River at Moretown.

Overnight, the system appears most likely to head off shore. Again,
there remains a few uncertainties. The main one being whether there
is any level of phasing between the two systems. If they do
interact, then precipitation will be slower to shift east, and with
cold air and falling heights, a transition to snow would then take
place sometime near or after sunset. This possibility would mainly
be confined to eastern Vermont based on present information.
Temperatures overnight will sink into the 20s to lower 30s, Thursday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 414 AM EDT Tuesday...On Friday, we`ll be in the subsidence side
behind the offshore system that will have developed into a deep,
stacked low. Cool northwest winds will result in temperatures
relatively close to seasonal normals, which are mid 40s and
overnight lows in the 20s. A shortwave blitzes east in zonal,
channeled flow aloft on Sunday. The placement of it is widely
variable at this stage, but if it comes through overnight, it could
support some snow. If it comes through in the day, then it`d be
elevation dependent rain and snow. By next Monday, conditions appear
likely to favor dry conditions, with temperatures trending back
upwards.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Expect general deterioration of aviation
conditions through the night tonight. MVFR/IFR conditions will
spread into the area from south to north between 00Z and 06Z,
persisting through the end of the TAF period. Predominantly IFR
conditions are expected tonight over KMPV and KRUT, otherwise
most other TAF sites should remain predominantly MVFR during the
overnight hours into Wednesday. Expect some patchy fog and mist
overnight, along with areas of drizzle or patchy showers. This
will result in visibility reductions to 3-6SM, especially over
eastern Vermont where there is the highest likelihood of fog
and drizzle overnight. Higher elevations of southeastern Vermont
may see some patchy freezing drizzle, though this is not
expected to impact any TAF sites. Winds will be increasing to
5-10 knots from the south/southeast by this evening. The
exception will be southeastern Vermont as well as KMSS, which
should see light and variable winds persist at the surface.
Expect periods of LLWS at KMSS with winds around 30-40 knots at
2000 ft AGL initially from the southeast, then becoming south
and then southwest.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Duell


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