059
FXUS61 KCTP 110814
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
414 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Continued seasonably warm and humid with near to above normal
  temperatures into mid July
* Daily doses of drenching thunderstorm downpours capable of
  producing isolated wind damage today (Thursday) and Friday
* Episodes of rain continue this weekend into early next week
  with the strongest wet signals on Sunday and Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mainly clear skies, light wind and sfc dewpoints in the upper
50s to low 60s (NRN Mtns) to the low 70s in SE PA will allow
for fairly widespread fog formation tonight throughout the
more narrow/deeper valley locations, where vsbys will likely
drop to AOB 1 mile.

Cloud-wise, the squeeze play is on for several more hours this
morning as low stratus advects westward into the Lower Susq
Valley while mid and high clouds will cover almost the NW half
of the state by Daybreak.

Low temperatures at sunrise will be near 60 over the Northern
Mtns and mid 60s to low 70s from the Central Mtns SE to the Mid
and Lower Susq Valley.

Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will lead to plenty of
sunshine across the bulk of the CWA once again today, with the
aforementioned cloud areas thinning out during the late morning.

Scattered showers and pulse TSRA will develop during the
afternoon hours as ens mean MU CAPE peaks in the 1500-1750 J/KG
area (after 16Z) and 0-3 KM bulk shear stays below 15KTS.
Negating factor for more widespread convection will be the
notable, +10-11C cap (700 MB Temp) we have over much of the
region.

High temps today will be 3-5 deg F above normal today with low
to mid 80s across the Mtns and upper 80s to around 90F in the
central and southern valleys. Lows tonight will be about 2-3 deg
F higher than Thursdays.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Despite the absence of a pronounced focusing/triggering
mechanism for CI, diurnal heating of a seasonably warm, moist
and weakly capped airmass will result in scattered afternoon
thunderstorms on Saturday.

Although precipitable water values look to trend lower vs.
previous days, there will still be at least a marginal risk for
a few water-loaded downbursts and localized heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wet signal strength likely peaks Sunday into Monday which
appears tied to a frontal system progressing eastward from the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through CPA. There will be at least
some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms as this system
moves through, with ensembles showing moderate instability
developing. Confidence is low, however, on the exact timing of
any storms.

There is increasing confidence in a 48hr break in the rainy
summer pattern next Tuesday and Wednesday. This "dry" signal is
reflected in the latest medium range models and ensemble
guidance which shows sfc high pressure/upper level ridge moving
into the area in the wake of the aforementioned frontal system.
Temperatures will remain firmly in summer mode trending near to
above (+5-10F) the historical average moving into 2H of July.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Early today, mainly clear skies and calm winds will support
visibility restriction in BR/FG across the region. The best
chance for IFR cigs/vis will be in northwest PA (KBFD) and
southeast PA (KMDT and KLNS) from fog/low ceilings. MVFR
restrictions are possible for a few hours at JST, AOO, and UNV
as well, though confidence is lower there. IPT will see MVFR
restrictions and IFR restrictions are possible. Chance for IFR
cigs/vis run about 30% in the central swath of airfields, rising
to >70% on the bookends northwest and southeast.

Improving conditions will develop late this morning.

There will be isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA developing after
16z with the peak coverage of this convection occurring between
19-23Z.

Outlook...

Sat...Scattered afternoon/evening storms, mainly south.

Sun...More widespread showers/storms likely.

Mon...Still storms around.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl/Bauco
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Bauco
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Bauco
LONG TERM...Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff/Tyburski