Text Products for SWO Issued by DY3

Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
ACUS03 KWNS 180646
SWODY3
SPC AC 180645

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not currently forecast on Saturday. A few strong
storms cannot be ruled out over parts of the Southeast, and over
parts of Texas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Saturday, a large upper trough will move quickly east across the
Great Lakes and Northeast, while an upper low deepens over Hudson
Bay. A relatively wide zone of moderate midlevel westerlies will
remain south of these entities, from the central Plains to the East
Coast. Elsewhere, a southern-stream wave will move into the southern
Plains, providing cooling aloft.

At the surface,  a weak area of low pressure may linger over SC,
with a front extending westward into southern TX during the day.
This front will slowly shift south, reaching the western Gulf of
Mexico by Sunday morning.  A moist air mass will remain ahead of the
front, resulting in elevated instability over the southern Plains,
and areas of surface-based instability over the Southeast.

The strongest pocket of instability may exist from GA into SC
coincident with steeper low-level lapse rates. Given relatively week
shear, severe storms are not currently forecast. However, a few
strong storms will be possible assuming antecedent convection has
not pushed the effective boundary offshore prior to peak heating.

Over TX and OK, models indicate substantial elevated CAPE will
exist, but also widespread clouds, rain and thunderstorms throughout
the period. A few storms could potentially support marginal hail,
however, predictability is a bit low given expected widespread
precipitation.

..Jewell.. 04/18/2024

$$