541
FNUS53 KGRR 120716
FWFGRR

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
316 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

...Warmer today with showers/storms possible this evening and tonight...

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will climb into the 70s today with a cold front
bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening and
tonight. Best chance for storms will be north of Grand Rapids
tonight. The cold front stalls over the Lower Peninsula on Monday
with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms late Monday
into Tuesday.


MIZ037>039-043>045-122045-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Hart,
Fremont, and Big Rapids
316 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....69-74.
   24 hr trend......14 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 hr trend......19 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......South winds 11 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1700-2200 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and
                    3700-4200 ft AGL Inland.
Transport winds.....South around 15 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 25 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....750-1040 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.08 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 2 AM. Isolated thunderstorms.
                    Chance of rain showers after 2 AM.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....48-53.
   24 hr trend......15 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 9 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......700-1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....110-180 (poor to fair).
Pcpn Amount.........0.11-0.38 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....68-73.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
Min humidity........56-61 percent near Lake Michigan and 48-53
                    percent Inland.
   24 hr trend......17 percent wetter near Lake Michigan and 29
                    percent wetter Inland.
20-foot winds.......West winds 7 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......700-1200 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and
                    3000-3500 ft AGL Inland.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....390-440 (good).
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.14 in.


$$

MIZ040-046-122045-
Clare-Isabella-
Including the cities of Clare and Mount Pleasant
316 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 73.
   24 hr trend......14 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 hr trend......13 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4800-5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph increasing to around 20
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....630-1150 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.02 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....52-57.
   24 hr trend......15 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 9 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......800-1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....110-210 (poor to fair).
Pcpn Amount.........0.15-0.37 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
   24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
Min humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 hr trend......19 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......West winds 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......3200-3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....460 (good).
Pcpn Amount.........0.05-0.22 in.


$$

MIZ050-056-064-071-122045-
Muskegon-Ottawa-Allegan-Van Buren-
Including the cities of Muskegon, Grand Haven, Jenison, Holland,
and South Haven
316 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....73-78.
   24 hr trend......18 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 hr trend......19 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......South winds 9 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......Near Lake Michigan, 1900-2400 ft AGL.
Mixing height.......Inland, 3400-3900 ft AGL increasing to
                    6200-6700 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 20 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....650 (excellent) increasing to 1450 (excellent)
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....51-56.
   24 hr trend......16 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 hr trend......22 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......400-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....110-120 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.21 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....74-79.
   24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
Min humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 hr trend......25 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......West winds 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1600-2100 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and
                    5300-5800 ft AGL Inland.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....890-910 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........0.06-0.34 in.


$$

MIZ051-052-057>059-122045-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-
Including the cities of Greenville, Alma, Grand Rapids, Ionia,
and St. Johns
316 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....72-77.
   24 hr trend......14 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 hr trend......13 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4900-5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph increasing to around 20
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....660-1100 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
   24 hr trend......18 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 hr trend......Unchanged.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......500-1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....110-140 (poor to fair).
Pcpn Amount.........0.04-0.22 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2 PM. Chance of thunderstorms.
                    Rain showers likely after 2 PM.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....73-78.
   24 hr trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 hr trend......17 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5000-5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....830-890 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........0.07-0.38 in.


$$

MIZ065>067-072>074-122045-
Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, Kalamazoo,
Battle Creek, and Jackson
316 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....72-77.
   24 hr trend......15 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 hr trend......16 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5800-6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph increasing to around 20
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....550 (good) increasing to 1370 (excellent) in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
   24 hr trend......17 degrees warmer.
Max humidity........78-83 percent.
   24 hr trend......21 percent drier.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......400-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....120 (poor).
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.15 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
                    until 2 PM. Chance of thunderstorms after 11
                    AM. Showers likely after 2 PM.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
   24 hr trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 hr trend......9 percent wetter.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 11 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......6400-6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....1410-1600 (excellent).
Pcpn Amount.........0.11-0.38 in.


$$

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Showers in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Lows in
the lower 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the northeast
overnight.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
60s. Northeast winds 7 to 12 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Northeast winds
10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Northeast winds 9 to
14 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. East winds
6 to 11 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 7 to
12 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 50s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower
70s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 50s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
70s.

$$