380
FXUS64 KLCH 110419
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1119 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

High level cloudiness will be moving across the forecast area
tonight is the only type of clouds expected. Dewpoints are in the
60s so it should feel less humid with low temperatures a little
closer to seasonal. Current forecast is on track and no changes at
this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the cool front which passed the
area earlier this morning now southeast of the forecast area,
extending from an area of low pressure near KMOB to the nwrn Gulf.
Meanwhile, high pressure centered over the Rockies/srn Plains was
building sewd over the region, with obs showing a mainly nrly/nerly
low-level flow. The airmass associated with the building high is
definitely drier as dewpoints have dropped 10-15 degrees in 24
hours. Water vapor imagery shows the troffing associated with the
sfc front and last night`s severe weather now well to our east with
weak ridging building overhead and to our west. Regional 88Ds show a
few showers/storms associated with an approaching disturbance still
off to our west, but the drier air noted in this morning`s KLCH
sounding was winning out as earlier activity never made it close to
the area.

The bulk of the short-term remains dry again this afternoon as the
weak ridging aloft and encroaching sfc high pressure control our
area weather through Saturday. Cooler temps are in store for tonight
with lows back in the much more seasonal 60s for all but the
immediate coastline. Despite highs again the 80s for Saturday,
dewpoints in the 50s will make it feel much more pleasant.

Rain chances return to the forecast on Sunday as a shortwave is
progged to cut off over the srn Rockies, while sfc high pressure
pushes east of the forecast area and ushers in a moister srly flow
off the Gulf. With forecast soundings indicating mean RH values
rising to around 90 percent and PWAT values climbing to around 2.0
inches (well above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climo),
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop through the day Sunday and linger through Sunday night.
Although forecasted rainfall amounts during this period aren`t
overly scary, given the antecedent conditions from the recent
constant periods of (sometimes heavy) rainfall, WPC is highlighting
all but the sern zones in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for
day 3 (marginal risk for the sern zones).

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Trending into the long term starting at the beginning of the
upcoming work week, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is present
across the entire watch area Monday into Tuesday AM. Synoptically, a
shortwave and associated precipitation will continue to progress
from the central Plains toward the Ohio Valley with notable forcing
along the cold front to realize thunderstorm activity across
portions of SETX and SWLA. Then an all too familiar scenario of an
unsettled wet pattern comes into mind yet again. Low level
subsidence builds behind the front by Tuesday evening and persists
with more zonal upper level flow aloft through early AM Thursday.
Hereafter, the next system begins to take shape out west near the
Four Corners region. Global models are split on the evolution of the
shortwave, but more importantly, there is great disconnect from the
deepening downstream surface low developing on the Plains late
Thursday. Meanwhile, upstream flow higher aloft (around 250mb
heights) detaches vertical continuity and amplifies the trough from
the Great Lakes to California. Thus, while pops are reintroduced
toward the end of the forecast period, confidence is not strong to
detail any potential hazards when considering the number of
variances among deterministic forecast guidance with the National
Blend of Models. However, what is understood, are the signals for a
continued opportunity to have precipitation enter SETX and SWLA
toward the end of the work week once again.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

No changes to the thinking as far as the aviation goes tonight.
High pressure at the surface will be moving across the forecast
area through tomorrow with mainly light northeast winds overnight
becoming more easterly on Saturday. The easterly winds will be a
little bit stronger and more gusty on Saturday for KBPT and KLCH.
The northeast flow will bring in drier air in the low levels with
just high level cloudiness moving overhead. Therefore, VFR
conditions are expected during the period.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Inserting caution headlines for the wrn/cntl coastal waters for late
tonight and part of tomorrow as nerly winds increase to criteria.
Winds could briefly touch advisory criteria, but not sure for how
long if it even happens.

Winds are expected to shift serly and increase again on Sunday as
the gradient over the nwrn Gulf tightens...SCA conditions are
expected at that time.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  62  83  63  77 /   0   0  10  40
LCH  66  85  68  82 /   0  10  10  50
LFT  67  87  68  85 /   0  10  10  30
BPT  67  86  69  83 /   0  10  10  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07