Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 222034
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
134 PM PDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A few light rain showers are expected across the area
this afternoon ahead of a Pacific storm system. A low pressure
system and cold front will make progress through the state tonight
through Saturday bringing widespread rain and higher elevation
snow to the area tonight with less than one half inch accumulation
in some valleys by Sunday morning. Lingering light snow showers
will persist into early next week under a cooler northwest flow.
Mostly dry conditions across the region Wednesday but another,
potentially impactful weather disturbance is expected to move in
late Wednesday into early Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night.

Virga observed on radar within a broad mix of cirrus and mid-level
cloud cover continues to move through northern Nevada this
afternoon. It is doubtful that this will contribute to a
measurable rain event with probabilities of 0.01" or greater less
than 30% in eastern Elko county. Cloud cover and non-trivial
winds will keep overnight lows above freezing in the mid 30s for
much of the area.

The cold front accelerates southeastward through the state
Saturday morning through the afternoon bringing with it gusty
winds up to 30 mph along with rain and eventually a rain/snow mix or
snow in higher elevations. Short term model guidance suggests a
narrower band of precipitation at least as it is transiting
northern Nevada before slowing down once reaching White Pine
county. Higher precipitation amounts are expected through
Saturday night across White Pine county. This is where impacts are
most likely expected after midnight Saturday with some slushy
higher elevations roads developing. Otherwise, minimal expected
impact from snow to most roadways below 5500 feet area wide.

Temperatures will plummet more than 10 degrees area wide from
highs in the 60s this afternoon to 40s and 50s Saturday. Lows
Saturday night in the upper 20s and lower 30s will facilitate
snow accumulation on some surfaces and higher elevation roads but
valley roads should have minimal impacts.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday

Active weather will continue through the extended forecast period,
although there will be a brief break in precipitation Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. The deterministic and ensembles
are in general agreement with the synoptic pattern, so confidence
is high in the overall long term forecast.

After the cold front exits the region Saturday night, a northwest
flow aloft will continue to bring scattered to numerous snow
showers (rain/snow mix in Humboldt County) along with breezy west
to northwest winds Sunday through Tuesday. Snow amounts will be
light Sunday through Monday. The 48-hour total accumulations will
be one inch or less in the valleys and 1-3 inches in the
mountains. Based on NBM probabilities, the higher peaks of Elko
County have a 60 pct chance of 4 inches but only 30 pct chance of
6 inches of new snow from Sunday through Monday. On Tuesday, precipitation
will be more widespread north of HWY 50 with a 30-50 pct chance
of snow south of HWY 50. An upper level jet positioned over NV
will provide the upper level support for widespread light to
moderate snow. Snow accumulations will once again be light in the
valleys as afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 30s to
upper 40s. There is some uncertainty on snow accumulations in the
mountains, but the most likely snowfall will be an additional 1-3
inches.

The remainder of the week will be met with a strong low pressure
system developing off the eastern Pacific on Wednesday, traveling
across the western U.S. Wednesday night and Thursday. This will
be followed by another strong low pressure system off the OR/CA
coast on Friday. This will continue active spring weather. Snow
levels will rise briefly to around 6000-7000 feet late Wednesday
but will lower down to the valley floors (4500-5000 feet)
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through early Saturday morning. CIGs are lowering to around 7000
feet across N NV. Light -RA showers will begin for terminals
along the I-80 corridor around 06 to 07Z Saturday with VCSH
reaching KTPH and KELY at about 17Z to 20Z. Flight conditions will
steady worsen Saturday with MVFR to IFR conditions as -RA changes
over to -SN behind a cold front that will shift winds out of the
NW at 5KT to 15 KT with gusts up to 30 KT.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

93/99/99


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