Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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654 FXUS64 KLZK 081950 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 250 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Data from local radars indicate that the forecast area is currently precipitation free. Activity in central and southwest Missouri continues to slowly increase in coverage and intensity. Forecasts continue to reflect expected convective evolution this afternoon and evening. A cold front across central Oklahoma is expected to promote explosive convective development this afternoon. The convection then should form in a linear fashion, as it approaches the forecast area. Instability and vertical wind profiles support thunderstorms capable of all hazards late this afternoon and evening. Of particular note is a near term parameter space supporting giant hail in the western half of the forecast area. This thunderstorm episode should move south and east of the forecast area by sunrise Thursday. The previously mentioned front will be in the vicinity of southern sections to support widely scattered shower development Thursday afternoon. Expect noticeably drier and cooler conditions for Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 High pressure will accompany the upper level ridge as it attempts to build over the Southern Plains. This will provide a continued chance of cooler and drier air for the majority of the weekend with max/min temperatures ranging about 5-7 degrees below seasonal normals. Rain chances will be re-introduced by the second half of Sunday as the Southwest flow returns and Gulf moisture returns to the midsouth. The GFS is indicating a cutoff low to move right over North Arkansas on Tuesday with a brief clearing ahead of the next weather system expected in the Thursday/Friday timeframe. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Have utilized latest CAM type guidance to reflect expected convective evolution this afternoon and evening. VFR conditions to prevail across all sites after 12z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 64 84 55 76 / 70 10 10 0 Camden AR 67 86 60 79 / 70 20 30 0 Harrison AR 55 77 51 72 / 70 0 10 0 Hot Springs AR 64 85 58 79 / 60 20 30 0 Little Rock AR 68 86 60 78 / 80 10 20 0 Monticello AR 70 88 62 78 / 70 20 40 0 Mount Ida AR 63 85 57 79 / 60 20 20 0 Mountain Home AR 57 79 51 73 / 80 0 10 0 Newport AR 65 83 56 75 / 70 10 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 68 85 60 77 / 80 10 30 0 Russellville AR 61 84 56 78 / 60 10 10 0 Searcy AR 65 84 56 76 / 80 10 20 0 Stuttgart AR 68 84 60 75 / 90 10 20 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....61 AVIATION...55