053
FXUS62 KMFL 031850
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

A rather benign weather pattern remains in place across South
Florida today with continued light to moderate easterly flow with
surface high pressure to the east. Southwest Florida has the best
opportunity for any isolated showers or weak convection with the
sea breeze this afternoon. An upper level disturbance advancing
towards and into the Florida panhandle tonight will open a small
weakness in the upper level flow across the Florida peninsula from
Saturday into Saturday night. This weak upper level disturbance
combined with an increase in the moisture profile between 850 and
700 mb should induce some slightly greater PoPs during Saturday
afternoon into the 20 to 40 percent range. With the continued
moderate easterly flow, this activity will be most favored across
the interior/western portions of South Florida. Expect for the
afternoon highs to top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. The
overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s along the coast
while interior locations dip into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

The weak upper level disturbance lingers through Sunday atop the
Florida peninsula before becoming more diffuse. The 500 mb heights
then increase into mid to late week as upper level ridging will
build into the region from the west. Surface high pressure stays
focused to the east in the Atlantic, maintaining the light to
moderate east to east-southeasterly flow across the region. Like
Saturday, Sunday will feature around 20 to 40 percent chance for
showers and convection across the interior and western portions
portions of South Florida. Early next week keeps some isolated
opportunities but solely with any lift from the afternoon sea
breeze. The PoPs then look to diminish even more into mid to late
next week as the upper level ridge strengthens. The temperatures
also respond as afternoon highs could reach the mid 90s across
interior locations by Wednesday and Thursday of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR flight conditions are expected to primarily prevail through the
TAF operational period at the local aerodromes. Kept VCSH at KAPF
as some isolated showers and/or weak convection across portions of
southwest Florida. Light to moderate east to east-southeasterly
flow will continue. The only exception is KAPF for a time this
afternoon where the flow becomes west-southwesterly thanks to the
influence of any of the sea breeze and any isolated showers/weak
convection in that region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Besides occasional times of gusty easterly winds, anticipate for
marine conditions to stay rather benign through the weekend and
entering into early next week. Isolated to scattered rain showers
and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, which could bring
brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Seas will generally
remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less
across the Gulf waters. Winds are likely to peak in the 13-18 kts
range out of the east and likely induce periods of Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to an elevated risk for rip
currents along the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the
today and this upcoming weekend. Highest rip current risk today
will be maximized across the Palm Beach County beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  84  74  84 /  20  20  10  30
West Kendall     71  85  72  86 /  20  20  10  30
Opa-Locka        73  86  73  86 /  20  20  10  30
Homestead        73  85  73  85 /  20  20  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  74  83  74  83 /  30  20  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  74  84  74  84 /  30  30  10  30
Pembroke Pines   73  87  73  87 /  30  20  10  20
West Palm Beach  72  84  72  84 /  20  20  10  20
Boca Raton       73  84  74  85 /  40  20  10  30
Naples           71  88  71  89 /  20  40  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99