Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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676 FXUS62 KMHX 141911 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 311 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area through Wednesday. High pressure builds in late Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 PM Tue...Latest analysis shows weak low pressure developing along the warm front over SC. Low will continue to strengthen as it lifts into NC tonight, with moderate to heavy rain overspreading the area. The combination of strong frontogenetic forcing and upper level support with an approaching vort max strongly suggest numerous to widespread coverage of showers through late this evening, as front lifts north and wave strengthens. Main concern is the risk of heavy rainfall, given very saturated model soundings and forecast PWATs soaring north of 1.75". For climatological context, the 90th percentile of PWATs for today is around 1.50". Through 18z, radar and MRMS estimate rainfall totals less than 0.25". Storm total rainfall amts through Wed morning 0.75-1.5" with locally higher amounts possible. Once the warm front crosses the region in the evening, instability will quickly increase behind it and a few thunderstorms are possible. Given long skinny CAPE profiles, these storms could result in isolated but strong downpours and pose a risk for flooding particularly in urban and poor drainage areas. A brief lull in precipitation is likely after midnight as dry slot moves overhead, but a few stray showers and iso thunderstorms are still possible. There is potential for patchy fog to develop inland between 6-12z, with saturated low levels and light winds. Very mild temperatures in the 60s expected overnight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 PM Tue...Sfc low will grad push away from the area, while the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front approach Wed. Think most of the morning will remain dry with only iso showers. A better chance for stronger storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled with around 30-35 kt of bulk shear. SPC has a marginal risk (1 of 5) of severe storms across the coastal plain during the afternoon and evening. Temps will continue to be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 515 AM Tuesday...Front will move through Wednesday night and early Thursday. High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week. Thursday through Monday...Upper ridging builds in from the west Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic coast slowly moving eastward. ECWMF continues to be the slowest solution keeping cyclonic flow across the area keeping isolated showers and thunderstorm chances through much of the day and will keep slight chance PoPs. Ridging crests over the area Thursday night but will slide offshore Friday with another frontal system quickly moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast over the weekend. But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 310 PM Tue...High confidence in widespread sub-VFR conditions through mid morning Wednesday. Mix of VFR and IFR currently across the terminals with scattered light showers. Conditions will continue to deteriorate this afternoon and evening, as a complex area of low pressure lifts towards the Carolinas. Widespread moderate to heavy showers and iso thunderstorms expected through late this evening. Predominantly IFR conditions are likely with this heavier activity and will linger through Wed morning. In addition to low cigs, patchy fog may develop inland between 6-12z Wed morning. Southeasterly winds gust this afternoon to 15-20 kt, then calm and veer south to southwesterly as surface low lifts across NC late tonight. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 5 AM Tuesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible Wednesday night with plenty of low level moisture in place. Pred VFR returns Thursday but could see isolated showers bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. Pred VFR continues Friday but another frontal system will approach the area bringing increasing clouds with sub-VFR possible Friday night into Saturday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 310 PM Tue...Latest obs show S-SE winds 15-25 kt with seas 3-7 ft, highest south of Hatteras. Winds will continue to increase this afternoon, peaking this evening at 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt. As low pressure and attendant warm front cross the waters tonight, winds will veer southwesterly and decrease to around 10-15 kt. Seas will peak at 6-9 ft. Current SCAs look good and will continue into tonight and Wednesday. Low pressure will continue to pull away from the waters Wednesday while a cold front approaches late Wednesday. SW winds generally 10-15 kt Wed, with gusts to 20 kt. Small Craft Advisory seas will continue with seas around 5-7 ft early Wednesday, gradually subsiding to below 6 ft late Wednesday/Wednesday night. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 515 AM Tuesday...A cold front pushes through Wednesday night and Thursday. SW winds become Nly Wednesday night behind the cold front. High pressure build into the area Thursday night bringing light winds then slides offshore Friday with winds becoming Sly around 10-15 kt Friday night and Saturday ahead of the next frontal system with seas around 3-5 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...CQD/SK MARINE...CQD/SK