Text Products for AFD Issued by PSR

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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FXUS65 KPSR 142206
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
306 PM MST Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly clear skies and cooling temperatures will dominate across
the region through tomorrow. Breezy to windy conditions will
continue through this evening before subsiding beginning tomorrow.
Temperatures will then trend warmer going through the middle and
latter portions of this week and high pressure builds into the
Desert Southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies are currently dominating across the Desert Southwest
this afternoon, with high temperatures expected to hover near
normal. However, the weather pattern is transitioning as a closed
low currently centered over the southern California coast will
shift eastward over the next 24 hours. As a result, temperatures
will cool through tomorrow as negative height anomalies traverse
across the region. The only weather impact with this weather
feature is continuing breezy to windy conditions today across the
region, with residual breeziness continuing across southeastern
Arizona tomorrow as the closed low moves east of the region. Wind
Advisories remain in effect for central to western Imperial
Counties as winds continue to gust in the 40-50 mph range through
this evening.

Mid-level heights will rebound on Tuesday, leading to a warming
trend going through the middle of the week. The magnitude of
warming is a bit more muted relative to previous ensemble guidance
as ensembles are now showing a shortwave digging into the
Intermountain West more aggressively beginning on Tuesday.
Nonetheless, temperatures will warm to above normal Tuesday
through the rest of the week. The only change is the maximum
potential for the highs late week are several degrees cooler, as
latest NBM probabilities of 100 degrees across the lower deserts
are now no higher than 10%. Thus, Minor HeatRisk will prevail
through this period.

Quasi-zonal flow looks likely to prevail going into this weekend,
as ensembles depict some form of weak ridging across the West
Coast. However, there remains some discrepancies on how the
aforementioned trough evolves, but the predominant solution is
some form of positive height anomalies continuing across the
region through the region. Thus, seasonal to a few degrees above
normal look to continue through this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1730Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Current light winds with westerly component will pick up speeds
early this afternoon. Westerly winds with gusts 20-25 kt are
expected through the afternoon and early evening hours. After
sunset the winds will decouple with speeds aob 10 kt expected
through the overnight hours. Winds are anticipated to maintain
their westerly component, with no typical diurnal switch to
easterly expected this evening. Early tomorrow morning winds will
become light and variable, with speeds aob 5 kt. Skies will
remain mostly clear through the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Current gusty westerly winds of 20-25 kt, at KIPL, will pick up
speed throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Gusts of
25-30 kt are anticipated this afternoon through very early
tomorrow morning. Strongest winds are expected early this evening
when winds may 35-40 kt, which could cause some patchy blowing
dust that could reduce visibility. Early tomorrow morning winds
will start to slow a little bit, however, periodic gusts of 15-20
kt are expected through the end of the TAF period. Meanwhile at
KBLH, winds will be southwesterly through the TAF period. Current
light winds will pick up speed early this afternoon, with gusts of
25-30 kt anticipated through the evening. Late this evening winds
will decouple, with speeds aob 7 kt lasting through the remainder
of the TAF period. Skies will remain mostly clear, at both
terminals, through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With dry weather prevailing, near to below normal temperatures
early this week will rapidly warm back into an above normal
category during the latter half of the week. Breezy to windy
conditions during the afternoon hours will continue through
Monday, with the strongest winds across the western districts this
afternoon. As minimum afternoon humidity levels fall into a
10-25% range during this period, a locally elevated fire danger
will exist. With warmer temperatures later in the week, minimum
humidity levels will dry further into a 10-20% range with single
digits common across lower desert locations. Overnight recovery
will turn poor to fair in a 20-40% range. However, lighter wind
speeds will preclude a greater fire danger and provide an
excellent opportunity for prescribed burning during the middle of
the week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM PDT Monday for CAZ562.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ563-566-567.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Young
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Young/18
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
