Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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785 FXUS65 KPUB 140426 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1026 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected today, mainly over and near higher terrain. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow, some of which could be strong to severe, with the primary hazards being damaging winds and small hail. - Heavy rainfall will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday night for the Eastern Mountains, out into the I-25 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 228 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024 Satellite and radar imagery depict lots of cumulus build up and isolated weak thunderstorm activity over the La Garitas, the Sangres, and the Wet Mountains as of 2pm. Temperatures are in upper 60s and low 70s across the plains and mountain valleys. Cu is starting to push into the plains. Winds are northerly across the plains, and showers are pushing north to south as well. Dewpoints are in the 30s across our plains. Rest of Today and Tonight.. We are sort of in-between systems today with northwesterly flow aloft behind the departing low that is currently pushing across the midwest. This will keep storm coverage more isolated today. High res model guidance continues to develop isolated showers and weak thunderstorms over the high country early this afternoon, with some weaker convection pushing off the terrain and into the I-25 corridor, and into the San Luis Valley later this afternoon and this evening. Though storms are expected to be weak and isolated today, gusty outflows to 40 mph will be possible, along with lightning. Once showers and storms clear out this evening, winds are expected to be calm through the overnight hours, with temperatures cooling to near normal for most locations. Tomorrow.. Models bring a shortwave southeastward across the northern Rockies tonight and into tomorrow. This feature will interact with the moisture in place over Colorado, along with a low sitting off shore over southern California, to bring us more chances for showers and thunderstorms for our Tuesday. Models also bring a weak cold front southward across our plains late tomorrow afternoon and into tomorrow evening. This front will help to initiate showers and thunderstorms across our plains tomorrow. Mountain convection looks to get started as early as Noon tomorrow, spreading eastward and into the I-25 corridor quickly throughout the early afternoon hours, especially north of highway 50. Forecast soundings show inverted V profiles with around 1000 to 1500 J/kg of DCAPE, suggesting that damaging winds with gusts to 60 mph will be possible with storms tomorrow. Small hail to around 1/2 inch diameter also looks possible with storms tomorrow, especially near any interacting boundaries. Tomorrow`s high temperatures will be highly dependent on frontal timing and on the amount of convective cloud cover that we see in the early afternoon hours, but high res model guidance suggests that a majority of the plains, especially along and south of highway 50, could warm well into the mid to upper 80s before the front passes. Our mountain valleys and areas north of highway 50 will likely remain in the 70s for tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 228 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024 Overall, models are in good agreement through much of the extended, with differences arising by Sunday into early next week. Broad upper troughing will persist across the Rockies through Thursday, with high pressure building across the region Friday into the weekend. The next upper storm system looks to arrive for early next week, however, model guidance and ensembles differ on strength and speed of the upper trough. Tuesday night through Thursday...broad upper troughing will persist across the region, with multiple embedded waves moving across Colorado in northwesterly flow. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday evening across the Plains. Model sounding guidance indicates dry low levels and inverted V soundings, with a strong wind potential through the evening hours. Small hail and brief moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible before midnight, with activity waning into Wednesday morning. A cold front/outflow boundary will shift flow northeasterly advecting moisture back across the Plains. The main concern for Wednesday looks like the potential for heavy rainfall along the Eastern Mountains, out into the I-25 corridor. Northeasterly upslope flow at the surface, with combine with modest low level moisture, with dewpoints in the 40s and energy dropping south across the Plains to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. PWAT values near 0.75 inches, which is about 140 percent of normal for this time of year, will help allow for efficient rain producers. QPF amounts through Wednesday night of half to near an inch may be possible. Given the already saturated grounds from recent rains, localized flooding may be possible, especially in low lying, flood prone areas. This area of rain and embedded thunderstorms will push east into Kansas Wednesday into Thursday morning. Upper level ridging will begin to build east across Colorado on Thursday. Residual moisture, weak energy moving across the region as the upper wave departs to the east and daytime heating will likely lead to a few showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Temperatures during this period look pleasant, with highs in the 60s and 70s across the Plains, and 60s across the San Luis Valley. Friday through Monday...upper level ridging will shift across Colorado Friday into Saturday, before the next upper storm system takes shape across the western conus. Temperatures will warm through the weekend with highs in the 70s to 80s across the region. Mostly dry conditions are expected, however, a few showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the higher terrain. The next upper storm system will arrive Sunday into Monday, with increasing southwesterly and possible showers and thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty of the strength and timing of the upper system, did not stray away from NBM guidance at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1023 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024 VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. The only concern could be a brief period of SHRA/-TSRA tomorrow late afternoon. Winds will be breezy from a westerly component during the afternoon tomorrow. Otherwise light winds are anticipated. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...HODANISH