801
FXUS64 KSHV 162257
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
557 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

An upper-level trough continues to pivot eastward from southern
NM into western TX with increasing SW flow aloft and large scale
ascent farther east across the Ark-La-Tex. As a result, fairly
robust convection continues to expand deeper into our region with
the strongest thunderstorms confined to parts of Deep East TX. In
fact, one of these prompted a severe thunderstorm warning within
the past hour. This low-end severe potential will persist through
the remainder of this afternoon across Deep East TX and adjacent
parts of western LA but should begin to wane shortly thereafter as
the higher instability axis shifts farther south.

Looking farther north, convection has generally remained rather
tame with widespread showers and embedded storms containing some
pockets of heavy rainfall. Based on these current trends, very
little has changed in terms of the flooding potential with the
Flood Watch remaining intact for the same areas invof and south of
the I-20 corridor. The only change was to move up the expiration
time to 7 AM on Friday since the bulk of heavy rain should exit
the region by that time. In the watch area, additional 1-3 inch
amounts will be possible through Friday morning with only light
rain expected thereafter as the primary trough axis shifts east
into the Southern Plains. Even with cloud cover persisting into
Friday afternoon, high temperatures will generally top out in the
the lower 80s while overnight lows will range through the 60s both
tonight and Friday night with lingering convection still possible.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Beyond Friday night, the chance of at least isolated convection
will persist across our eastern zones through Saturday with the
passage of the main trough axis. Along with lingering clouds, this
will maintain high temperatures in the 80s on Saturday afternoon
before a warming trend commences during the latter half of the
weekend with an upper-level ridge gradually building into the
region on Sunday. This ridge will serve as the dominant weather
feature through early next week as temperatures push higher into
the upper 80s and lower 90s for much of the remaining forecast
period.

By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the next major trough and cold
front will shift into the mid-section of the country and slowly
chip away at the ridge, helping usher it farther eastward across
the SE CONUS. As a result, expect at least some lower end rain
chances to return by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday along with
slightly milder temperatures by the middle of next week and likely
beyond that with the potential of the front stalling out somewhere
across our region by late Wednesday into the late week timeframe.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

For the 17/00Z TAF update, active weather will continue with MVFR
vis/cigs or worse after 17/06Z through the rest of the period due
to VCTS/-TSRA. IFR cigs and some FG remain possible by
17/12Z-17/15Z. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  82  68  87 /  90  30  30  20
MLU  66  82  66  84 /  90  40  40  30
DEQ  63  81  62  84 /  60  70  30  10
TXK  65  82  65  86 /  80  50  40  10
ELD  64  82  64  83 /  80  50  40  20
TYR  66  81  66  87 /  70  20  20  10
GGG  66  82  66  86 /  80  30  20  10
LFK  66  82  66  88 /  90  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for LAZ010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ136-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...16