Text Products for AFD Issued by SLC

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 160849
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
249 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A weak cold front will shift into northern Utah
Wednesday. This boundary will shift away from the area by Friday,
with gradually warming temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Thursday)...Early morning upper air and
satellite analysis indicates the upper level low responsible for
widespread valley rain and mountain snow is currently centered
near southeastern New Mexico and will continue to pull away from
the Rockies. Shortwave ridging is noted behind this trough,
crossing into the Great Basin.

Shortwave ridging will be the rule through today. An upper level
trough will shift south into northern Montana Wednesday. The most
significant area of forcing will quickly shift eastward, leaving
behind a relatively weak cold front. This cold front will
gradually shift south into northern Utah Wednesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon, remaining across the northern third of the
state.

The main impacts from this semi-stationary front will be cooler
temperatures, widespread sky cover and a few showers. By Thursday
morning, this boundary will be weakening as the main trough starts
to shift away from the region.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Thursday)...On Thursday a weak baroclinic
zone associated with a grazing shortwave trough will remain draped
across the northern fringes of the forecast region. Precipitation
chances with these features look minimal, but cooler H7
temperatures associated with the nearby trough will help keep
temperatures from roughly central Utah northward near
climatological normal. Meanwhile, temperatures across southern
Utah are forecast to be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal as any
notable impact from the trough appears unlikely.

Aforementioned baroclinic zone looks to begin to retreat
northward on Friday, allowing temperatures across the northern
half of the forecast area to rise, while southern Utah
temperatures remain more or less steady. Precipitation chances
also remain minimal, with just some isolated showers possible
across the high terrain. A similar pattern is noted on Saturday,
though models do show potential for another quick grazing
shortwave. Exact impacts will depend on what the exact trajectory
of this shortwave ends up being, but in general just anticipate it
to add a bit more support for some diurnal showers across the
high terrain.

Increased ridging and further warming H7 temps remain the likely
expectation from Sunday into early next week. Some inconsistencies
noted on the overall strength of the ridge and when exactly its
influence peaks, but day to day forecast looks dry and mild with
afternoon high temperatures around 5 to 15 degrees above
climatological normal for late April. NBM probabilities include
~30% of afternoon highs at or above 90 degrees Monday and Tuesday
for St. George, and ~40% chance of highs at or above 80 degrees
for SLC.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Ceilings will gradually lift and then scatter
out through the morning, with mostly sunny skies expected by
afternoon. A switch to northwesterly winds is expected between
19-20Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Gradual clearing is expected
statewide as the main weather disturbance shifts east. As a result
any lingering ceilings will gradually scatter out across the
state.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
