Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 302348 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
548 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 259 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Latest round of apparent T grids/forecast has advisory level values
from 25 below to around 35 below for a good chunk of the eastern
CWA, so will continue with the Wind Chill Advisory until 16Z
Tuesday. For tonight, rather tricky low temp forecast as we see weak
warm air advection and southwest breezes. But, we`ll likely tank in
the favored areas, especially towards sunrise where hi-res wind data
does show a slackening of wind in the valley areas after a steady
night-long southwest breeze. Leaned more towards NBM10 in the ABR
area, but confidence in how this will all shake out is low. Will
also be watching the southwest breezes tonight as we`ll see a
moderate downslope event in the Coteau. 925mb winds are from the
southwest around 35 knots or so, therefore not expecting a big event
by any means, but certainly some gusts perhaps around 40 mph
nonetheless. Blowing snow output gave mostly patchy wording for this.

For Tuesday, we`ll continue to see 925mb temps warming a few degrees
across the CWA as south to southwest winds remain in place. Temps
are expected to moderate a bit more than what we`ve been
experiencing the past few days, with highs ranging from around 10
above for eastern areas, to the low and mid 20s over central SD.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

The only real issues in this period will be determining how our
temperature trends play out toward the end of the week into early
next week. Dry conditions still look to be the overall consistent
pattern that`s shown up in most of the longer range guidance.
Although, now with the latest 12Z run of the GFS/GEFS, some precip
shows up in our eastern CWA on Saturday while the rest of the
guidance remains dry. We`ll continue with a dry forecast at this
point as this is a new development. Temperatures trends look to
exhibit an up and down pattern initially in the period from
Wednesday through Thursday as another front sweeps through Thursday
bringing in a reinforcing shot of arctic air. Guidance remains far
apart of the degree of warming we might see on Friday as a warm air
advection pattern begins to kick in. Over the weekend into early
next week, a warmer airmass does begin to overtake more of the
region, so still anticipating a noticeable warm up at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast at all four terminals through the TAF
valid period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for SDZ005-006-010-
     017-018-036-037-051.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Dorn


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