Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 181952
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
252 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

An area of low pressure is situated over south central SD this
afternoon. The airmass associated with the surface low is unstable
with 3-4K J/KG of ML CAPE. Deep layer shear of 40 knots indicates
the environment is conducive for convection through this evening.
With little to no upper level support, or very weak forcing, storms
will probably have a difficult time developing. Increasing 700 mb
temps will also limit the convective potential. The past few runs of
the HRRR keeps most of this CWA dry through tonight. There is a
small indication for a storm or two to develop over north central SD
yet this afternoon. This storm would track southeast into a more
unstable environment with hail and winds possible.

On Friday, a weak upper level shortwave will cross across the
region, with most of the thunderstorm active in North Dakota. Can
not rule out a few storms along the ND/SD during the morning hours
on Friday. If the NAM is correct, accas showers will be possible
east of I29 Friday morning. Left this area dry for now. A stronger
upper level shortwave will push through the region Friday night. At
this time, most of the precipitation should occur post frontal with
limited threat for severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Northwest flow aloft this weekend will help keep temperatures on the
cool side for mid/late July, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
The muggy air will be shunned further south along with the hotter
air as well; relatively dry mid to upper 50 dewpoints are expected.
A dominant ridge of high pressure builds across the High Plains to
start the work-week, and it remains in control through much of the
remainder of the long term. Apart from some lingering shower/storm
activity Saturday morning from an exiting frontal boundary, as a
result, our area will be largely dry through the period. The main
upper-level energy should slide well north of the area, into Canada.
Temperatures will gradually recover during the work-week as well,
from near normal through the first half to above average by the
second.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

A surface low pressure system over central SD will produce MVFR
cigs at KPIR for the next few hours. Otherwise, prevailing VFR
conditions can be expected. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible later this afternoon through tonight. A storm or two
could be on the stronger side with hail and gusty winds possible.
Confidence with any storm impacting a terminals is low at this
time.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...SD


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