Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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FXAK67 PAJK 301531

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
631 AM AKST Wed Nov 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...Little change to inherited forecast with high
pressure over the Yukon and low pressure over Haida Gwaii. The
high will shift E and low will continue moving S today resulting
in a weakening gradient across the panhandle with Nly winds
easing in response today. Models in good agreement with another
low developing over the N gulf late tonight and sliding SE
offshore early Thu. This will bring increased chances of precip
late tonight into Thu. NW upper level flow will result in low QPF
values so snow amounts only up to an inch expected. Otherwise,
cold airmass will begin to moderate today and combine with
increased sky cover tonight resulting in slightly warmer low temps
Thu. Easing winds will allow seas to subside as well, but the
break will be brief as Nly outflow restrengthens late Thu.
Inherited forecast represented this well with adjustments to winds
and temps to reflect current observations.

.LONG TERM...Cold, dry and windy conditions will continue
throughout the area as our trend for outflow winds persists
throughout the inner channels and the coastal waters. As the low
exits the area to the south on Thursday, precipitation associated
with the diving low will decrease during the morning. The cold and
dry pattern returns to the region along with the outflow winds
increasing in strength again. Winds will continue until Saturday
when there looks to be the possibility of winds decreasing during
the morning and midday as the high over the Yukon is displaced and
the pressure gradient decreases. Some areas will still see some
stronger winds during this time. Any respite will be short lived
though as winds start to increase once more by Saturday night and
into Sunday morning with the high building back over Canada.
Precipitation chances during this time look to be fairly low
during the start of the weekend before increasing Saturday
afternoon. As for a pattern change, best chance of seeing a
change looks to be next week as the ridge moves allowing for
precipitation to be reintroduced.


.AVIATION...Main aviation concern continues to be the outflow
winds and their effects across the area. Highest outflow winds are
expected Wednesday morning with decreasing wind speeds in the
afternoon. In addition to the winds, expect turbulence/mountain
waves as well as low level wind shear in various areas depending
on how the outflow winds interact with the terrain. Otherwise,
conditions are expected to be VFR across the area, though the
possibility of blowing snow on occasion in some locations cannot
be entirely ruled out.


PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ318-319.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ325.
     Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ329-330.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012-031.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013.
     Storm Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ013-022-031>034-041>043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-035-036-052-053.




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