483
FXAK67 PAJK 180649 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1049 PM AKDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.EVENING AND AVIATION UPDATE...
No major changes to ongoing forecast this evening as bulk of
front has pushed through the panhandle, with lingering rain across
the far southern panhandle. Winds have begun to trend downward,
with the wind advisory for Skagway expired as of 10pm. However,
expecting sustained winds around 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph to
continue into late tonight for Skagway with maritime winds
continuing within N Lynn Canal to Taiya Inlet around 25kts with
gusts up to 35kts. For the rest of the panhandle, Winds remain
largely 15kt or less over marine areas, 10mph or less over land.
Low temperatures tonight drop into the 50s at sea level, rain
chances diminish overnight 20% or less with overcast skies and low
ceilings expected into the morning with an overall drying trend
expecting by Tuesday afternoon.


.AVIATION.../through 06z Wednesday/
A mixed bag of flight conditions across the panhandle this
evening in the wake of departing front with best conditions across
the far north, deteriorating moving southward down the panhandle.

Across the far northern Gulf and northern panhandle terminals,
VFR conditions conditions with ceilings around 5000ft, however
winds around 15kts with gusts up to 20kts continue at Skagway
through at least 12z. Overnight, conditions slowly diminish near
Haines and Skagway to MVFR or worse with CIGS AoB 1500ft. Along
the Icy Strait Corridor and the coast, including Sitka, Gustavus
and Juneau, trend of diminished flight conditions with MVFR
conditions ongoing and expected to continue through the night.
Worst flight conditions ongoing across the S Panhandle terminals
with LIFR to IFR ongoing from Wrangell southward to Ketchikan,
bringing some terminals below airport mins through Monday night
with continuing CIGS AoB 500ft and intermittent visbys as low as
1/4 mile within localized developing fog. Higher forecast
confidence in continued lowered ceilings than fog development,
regardless anticipated continued IFR flight conditions or worse to
continue.

By 18z Tuesday, panhandle will be on a widespread slow
improvement as we move into the afternoon, reaching MVFR or higher
by 00z. Winds tomorrow afternoon around 10 to 15kts with gusts up
to 30kts expected at Skagway. No significant LLWS concerns
through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 17 2026...

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds to the panhandle
  before conditions gradually improve by early Tuesday.

- More seasonable conditions will prevail through the end of the
  week with mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers as
  multiple systems traverse the region.

.SHORT TERM.../ through Wednesday night/
Low pressure and an associated frontal system continue to move
east across the southeast Gulf. Southerly flow has increased ahead
of and along the system with frequent gusts around 30 kts over
the marine waters. Winds have also increased over Lynn Canal and
adjacent locales, including Skagway, where a wind advisory
continues this evening for gusts of 40-45 mph. The most organized
areas of rainfall have pushed into the central panhandle, and
points south to Prince of Wales Island. Additional rainfall
amounts will generally be a half inch or less as the front weakens
and much of the lift is lost. Precipitation will further wane
tonight and become more scattered. While winds will remain
elevated this evening, they will diminish rather quickly after
06Z. This will also aid in the formation of some patchy fog and
low clouds toward daybreak.

By late Tuesday morning, weak high pressure will advance into the
eastern Gulf and southern panhandle. This will bring some breaks
in cloudiness and slightly warmer temperatures Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday. Highs will average in the low to mid 60s for much
of the region, except the upper 60s to low 70s across the southern
panhandle.

Models have come into somewhat better agreement with the timing
of the next frontal system, with rain spreading into the northeast
Gulf Coast Wednesday evening and then into the northern and
central panhandle early Thursday. Subsequent waves of low pressure
will bring periodic rain showers late in the week as well. While
some of this activity will be locally moderate to heavy at times,
it is not expected to result in any significant hydrological
concerns given our antecedent dry conditions. In fact, this
rainfall is much needed, particularly in the southern panhandle,
although at this time it appears areas north of about Frederick
Sound will see the most sustained precipitation.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/...
Active weather continues into the long term period, especially
over the northern panhandle. To end the work week, an area of low
pressure moves into the northern gulf continuing to bring onshore
flow, rain, and slightly increased winds to the northern and
central panhandle. An area of high pressure southwest of the
panhandle with a positively tilted ridge axis will remain near
Prince of Wales Island. This ridge will likely keep the far south
drier, but a few periods of light showers may occur. That ridge,
southwest of the area, breaks down Friday into Saturday as a
stronger low pushes into the northern gulf. There is still some
uncertainty on how strong this low will be. The strength of the
low will really help to indicate what weather hazards to expect,
like how much rain we may receive and how strong winds may get.
Confidence on the location and timing of this low has slightly
increased, but it is still a ways out.

Temperatures through the long term period remain near average
with high temperatures in the mid to high 60s. There are
indications that areas near Hyder will see temperatures into the
mid to high 70s on Thursday and Friday. The main indicators of
this is continued dry weather along with 850 temperatures between
12 to 15 C. The limiting factor will be the amount of cloud cover
that they receive as the low pressure system moves into the gulf
bringing more moisture into the area.

&&

.MARINE...

Outer waters: Building high pressure in the gulf will contribute
to the downward trend in winds this evening, with winds maximizing
around a moderate breeze over open water. Waters near Cross Sound
are the exception here, with isallobaric winds (rising pressures)
increasing near this area, channeling into Cross Sound up to 20
knots. Similar story for wave heights, but with a predominantly
southwest swell up to 6 ft, wave are expected to be slow to
diminish. At the very least, waves will drop below small craft
criteria by tomorrow morning.

Inside waters: Few areas of note for the inside waters. The first
being the increased southwesterlies near the mouth of Glacier Bay
and Cross Sound from the aforementioned isallobaric winds. The
second being Clarence Strait, which is expected to be elevated for
longer with at least 20 knot winds through tomorrow evening. The
third and final being the persistent low clouds, mist, and fog
potential, primarily for the central panhandle.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NC

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