452
FXAK67 PAJK 202250
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
250 PM AKDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/ Quiet day across the
panhandle with only a few showers to deal with across the
northeast gulf coast and Icy Strait area. These showers are mainly
developing from the lingering colder air aloft that has
destabilized the atmosphere above 1000 ft over the gulf. The
showers are then advected into the outer coast and northern inner
channels by the W flow currently ongoing at low levels across the
gulf. These showers are rather light with mainly trace amounts
being reported. The pops for this afternoon and evening have been
raised to around 30 to 40 percent in the northern half of the
panhandle as a result.

Showers are expected to linger into Monday before a stronger
trough moves into the panhandle Monday afternoon and night
bringing a more organized area of rainfall into the area. Rain
rates are expected to increase through Monday night, but with no
substantial moisture to work with, rainfall amounts will likely
only be less then 1 inch through Tuesday afternoon.

No significant winds are expected through the short range period.
Most areas will remain below 20 kt of wind with mostly onshore
flow expected through the period.


.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/...A Low in the NE
Gulf dissipates Tuesday allowing for an area of high pressure to
develop. Light showers diminish through this time. The next
feature to impact the area will be a front moving into the eastern
Gulf while the parent low remains near Kodiak. This will bring
increased winds and seas to the area as well a return to heavier
precipitation for the panhandle. Winds along the front look to
reach gale force with barrier jet formation. The heaviest
precipitation mainly along the NE Gulf coast but places along the
outer coast could see some heavier periods of precipitation. For
the late week and weekend the uncertainty of where the low will
track as it weakens is uncertain. There are two main tracks
depicted by operational models and the ensembles. one keeps the
low in the NE gulf, stronger and longer, thus continuing shower
activity well into Friday. The other track drops the low to the SE
along the panhandle coast, with a faster drying trend. Previously
more models lined up with the southerly track, but latest runs
are shifting to a northerly solution. This is SE AK so a mostly
cloudy chance of rain forecast fits right in with this
uncertainty, for now. For the weekend operational models have a
wide range of solutions to put it politely. Ensembles keep a
generic low over the western gulf and a large swath of precip over
us. Low forecast confidence is the word for now, so expect
details to change as hopefully a steadier trend develops.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to dominate the panhandle
for a majority of the day as a ridge moves into the eastern gulf.
A stratus deck will continue to filter over the northern and
central panhandle, bringing lower ceilings with dips into MVFR
conditions. Weak onshore flow continues, carrying moisture from
the gulf onshore and allowing light, scattered showers to
continue through the day. Winds remain mostly light and variable,
though northern regions of the panhandle will see winds pick up
tonight as the occasional light shower passes over. Ceilings are
trending lower into MVFR through the night, setting up for
showers and cloud cover to continue into Monday.


&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas have fallen below small craft criteria
across the area today and are expected to remain below that
threshold through Tuesday. Some areas of 20 kt winds in Lynn Canal
and some parts of the gulf at times through Tuesday are possible
mainly from Monday morning onward. General wind directions will
remain W to SW across the gulf, southerly in the north/south
channels, and westerly turning easterly tonight in the east/west
channels. Next period of small craft or greater conditions will be
in the gulf starting Tuesday night. Near gale force winds
possible near Cape Suckling late Tuesday night.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAL

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