Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 271610
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1110 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure builds over the area today, and shifts
offshore Saturday. A wave of low pressure approaches Sunday
into early Monday, bringing the next chance for rain showers.
The pattern looks to remain unsettled next week, with
temperatures gradually trending colder by the mid to late week
period.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM EST Friday...

The latest analysis indicates sfc high pressure (1030 mb+) centered
over the Gulf Coast region with strong low pressure now well to
the NE of the area over Greenland. A weak shortwave trough is
noted aloft, which is embedded within a larger (and quite
elongated) positively tilted trough over the central and eastern
CONUS. There is strong SW flow in the 500-200 mb layer
downstream of the trough axis, with a 170+ kt jet streak
overhead. This is leading to variable cloud cover over the
region, with mostly cloudy skies on the MD eastern shore and
over portion of the northern piedmont, with generally partly-
mostly sunny skies elsewhere.

The high shifts E into the SE CONUS through the aftn and with
the shortwave providing a quick shot of CAA, temps should remain
on the cool side today with highs ranging from the mid 40s
across the north to around 50F in NE NC. Mostly clear tonight
with seasonably cold lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Friday...

Low-level SW flow increases Sat as high pressure moves offshore.
This leads to warming temps, with highs Sat in the mid to upper 50s.
High level clouds begin increasing Sat night as the next weather
system begins developing over the Arklatex region. Lows Sat night
are dependent on the degree of cloud cover and SW winds. For now,
going with lows in the 30s for Sat night.

Attention then turns to our next precip maker for Sun into Mon.
Broad area of low pressure is expected to extend from the OH River
Valley southwards to the Gulf coast (along a stationary front). This
will likely bring two distinct periods of precip to the area: one
associated with weak isentropic ascent Sun aftn/evening and another
associated with a wave of low pressure pushing NE along a coastal
trough Sun overnight/Mon morning. Precip with the initial wave
likely moves E through the day Sun, with chances of rain increasing
by Sun evening (especially W of Richmond). PoPs currently are only
at low-end chance (30%) for the wrn Piedmont w/ slight chance
extending towards the coast for the daylight hours of Sun. In
addition to delaying the precip onset Sun, guidance is not
particularly optimistic about much in the way of substantial rain
towards the coast most of Sun evening/early overnight with the
initial wave. As a more organized wave of low pressure rides NE Sun
overnight along the Carolina coast, most areas should see more
widespread rainfall. Highest PoPs (70-90%) are over SE VA and NE NC.
There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent of the precip
shield (GFS/NAM further S and ECMWF/Canadian further N), so PoPs are
a little lower (50-70%) across the N and NW. Guidance is slower with
the departure of the rain Mon, so will maintain chance PoPs towards
the coast into the aftn hours.

With the slower arrival of the rain (and lower coverage) Sun,
remaining on the mild side. Highs in the mid 50s NW to low 60s SE.
Highs Mon depend on how fast the rain moves out. Went a degree or
two below the blended guidance for Mon given recent trends that rain
takes a little longer to depart. Highs generally in the mid 50s
areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Friday...

Low pressure continues to pull away from the coast Monday night with
high pressure building into the region from the upper Midwest.
Partly cloudy overnight with lows falling into the mid 30s N to the
low 40s near and south of the VA/NC border.  00z deterministic
guidance shows the main baroclinic zone/cold front getting pushed
south of the local area with the potential for several waves of low
pressure to translate along the front. That said, the individual
models have vastly different strength and timing of these waves with
substantial impact on resulting sensible weather across the region.
The GFS, and to a lesser extent the CMC, show low pressure and
precip moving into the region on Tuesday into Tuesday night while
the ECMWF is slower with precip focused Wednesday morning. Will
stick close to the blended guidance and focus highest PoPs during
the overnight period.

Additional waves of low pressure are forecast Thursday into Friday
with very low confidence continuing for specific timing and precip
placement and amounts. Depending on the strength/depth of cold air
north of the main cold front and the potential for low pressure to
pass to our south and offshore, p-type issues could materialize for
the mid to late week period. Given the significant uncertainty
during this time, will limit PoPs to chance or lower from Wednesday
afternoon through the end of the period. Regardless of the finer
details, the mid to late week timeframe looks unsettled and
seasonably cool with highs generally in the 40s and lows in the
upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 615 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions in place across the terminals and the region
more broadly. A few patches of stratus with bases 6-8 kft noted
on satellite imagery over the SE terminals but these should move
offshore in the next hour or two. Thicker stratus over the
western part of VA are expected to stay to the west of the
terminals. Expect clear skies to dominate with just a few
clouds around 5 kft this afternoon, especially N. Winds are
generally light and variable early this morning, becoming W 5-10
kt mid morning through the afternoon. Winds turn SW this
evening but are expected to remain below 10 kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions should persist through much of the
upcoming weekend. A period of sub-VFR conditions and light rain
will be possible later Sunday into Sunday night. VFR conditions
then return for Monday/Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 145 AM EST Friday...

Sfc hi pres INVOF central gulf coast attm will shift slowly E to
off the SE CONUS coast by late Sat. Primarily W winds 5 to 15 kt
attm...generally avgg AOB 10 kt today. SW winds expected
tonight...increasing to 15 kt...mainly nrn portions of the
local waters then lowering again Sat. SSW winds late in the
weekend avg AOB 15 kt. A coastal low moves off the VA/NC coast
Mon bringing a chance for rain late Sun-Mon. A cold front slowly
crosses the region Tue-Wed with rain possible. Sub-SCA
conditions expected to prevail through Tue (although winds could
gust to 20 kt over portions of the Ches bay tonight).
OTW...SCAs will be possible behind the cold front mid next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW
NEAR TERM...LKB/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ALB


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