Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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891
FXUS61 KAKQ 240525
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
125 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front drops south across Virginia today, stalls across
northern North Carolina tonight, then lifts back north as a
warm front Thursday. A stronger cold front crosses the region
Friday. High pressure builds into the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 955 PM EDT Tuesday...

A broad upper ridge is centered over the Southeast Conus this
evening. At the surface, high pressure continues to linger over
the eastern Gulf coast into the northern half of the Florida
peninsula. To the north, weak low pressure continues to slide
across S ON/QC this morning, with the associated sfc cold front
trailing back to the W-SW into W NY/PA and into the eastern TN
River valley. Mainly clear across the area this evening, with
temperatures once again dropping off in clear sky and light
winds. However, the light return flow and slight increase in
dewpoints has held temps up a bit more tonight than last night.

Mid to high clouds will increase across the north tonight as the
cold front approaches from the NW late tonight. CAMs have backed
off steadily over the past few hours regarding any rain chance,
and given the lack of any substantive forcing and still
relatively dry low/mid levels, have pulled the rain chance for
the night. A quick sprinkle is possible across far northern
portions of our MD zones, but the chances of measuring PCPN,
while non-zero are <14%. Forecast lows overnight wl range from
the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

The cold front drops into the area Wednesday and settles near
the VA/NC border, and becomes rather diffuse by aftn. Models
suggest some low-level convergence over interior SE VA/NE NC as
a sea-breeze pushes inland and interacts with the front. This
could trigger a few showers/tstms over these areas initially,
and back into the SW Piedmont later in the aftn. However, PoPs
are only 20-30%. Still mild Wednesday with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s, although locally cooler along the Atlantic
coast.

The front pushes into the Carolinas Wednesday night, before
lifting back N as a warm front Thursday as low pressure tracks
ENE from OH into PA. Partly cloudy and mainly dry Wednesday
night with lows in the 50s. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday
30-50% chc of showers and a slight chc of tstms W, and a 20-30%
chc of showers toward the coast. High temperatures range from
the mid 60s to around 70f over the Ern Shore, to around 80F SW.

An upper trough and associated cold front approach from the W
Thursday night and track across the region Friday. Of note, the
23/12z GFS/ECMWF have more moisture than the 12z NAM, which is
rather moisture starved. PoPs are mainly 30-50% (~60% far N) for
showers Thursday night into Friday, with a slight chc of tstms.
Mostly cloudy and mild Thursday night with lows in the upper
50s to mid 60s, followed by highs in the low/mid 70s Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

A cold front will be moving offshore Friday night into early
Saturday morning with some lingers showers or thunderstorms
possible Friday night. Expect plentiful sunshine and seasonable
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s as high pressure
builds back over the region. Another cold front approaches and
crosses the region Sunday into Sunday night, but rain chances
still appear limited with this system. The GFS is most
aggressive with the rain chances for this period while the ECM
has much less. As a result, limited PoPs to only a slight chance
during the day on Sunday. Mild on Sunday out ahead of the
system with SW flow, have highs climbing up into the low to
upper 70s across the region. Zonal flow is expected for next
week with the potential for a few weak disturbances working into
the region. Temperatures are likely to be near or above normal
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions expected today despite a cold front that sags south
across the area. Expct a BKN mid level deck to accompany the front
but low levels remain dry so that most if not all pcpn dissipates
before reaching the ground. Local sea breezes will likely turn winds
from the west to the ne along the sern coastal areas this aftrn.
Isltd convection possible along any sea breeze, but kept pcpn out
of the forecast attm.

Outlook: The cold front sinks south into nrn NC tonight, then lifts
back north as a warm front Thursday as low pressure tracks north of
the region. This will bring a chc of showers and a slight chc of tstms.
A cold front approaches from the west Thursday night into Friday
bringing an additional chc of showers and tstms. High pressure returns
over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1000 PM EDT Tuesday...

Latest observations show mainly SW winds of 10 to 15 knots over
the waters, except 15-20 kt ocean, with high pressure centered
to our south and an area of low pressure centered over the Great
Lakes. High pressure will move further off the southeast coast
overnight with a cold front approaching the region into Wednesday
morning. SW winds will remain 10 to 20 knots overnight as the
front approaches. Winds should stay below SCA criteria overnight,
but a few gusts to 20 knots will be possible over the Bay,
especially thru 09z. Waves 1-3 ft; seas 3-4 ft. Sub-SCA
conditions are then expected through at least Friday. Another
front approaches and crosses the region Friday into Saturday,
bringing the next potential for SCA conditions.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...AJB/JDM



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