Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240030
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
830 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will push farther offshore overnight. High
pressure builds in from the north for the latter half of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 830 PM EDT Tuesday...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been dropped across the local
area, with sfc cold front in the process of pushing offshore
early this evening. Threat has transitioned to more of a hydro-
based threat with heavy rainfall being the primary hazard.
Convection continues to weaken in intensity and areal coverage
with loss of daytime heating. CAMs in good agreement in sweeping
PCPN offshore late tonight and overnight, with showers coming
to an end inland over the next few hours. Will allow Flash Flood
Watch to end at its 02z expiration, with a few heavier
downpours still to be found along the SE coastal plain attm.

Stark change in temperatures over the local area this evening,
with temps mainly in the 60s across the region at 00z. Expect a
cooler, more comfortable night with lows in the low to mid 60s
inland, 65 to 70 along the coast, with gradual clearing from
west to east overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 pm EDT Tuesday...

High pressure slowly builds in from the north on Wed, before
becoming centered over the area late Thu. Expect lingering
widely scattered showers and maybe even and isolated storm
right through Wednesday across coastal zones as the upper trough
axis approaches the area on Wed. Some of the showers may skirt
across southeast VA and northeast NC. Kept PoPs mainly in the
slight chc range, as the latest guidance shows that any
appreciable deep- layer moisture will remain to our south and
east. With the NE flow cloud cover will likely hang on for some
time keeping temps down a bit especially for the first half of
the day. It will remain dry across inland zones on Wed (and dry
in all areas from Wed night through Thu night).

Temps will be below average on Wed/Thu, with highs mainly in the
80-85F range (and lower humidity). Lows Wed/Thu night mainly in
the low-mid 60s inland (while remaining around 70F along the
immediate coast of SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...

Generally quite and very pleasant weather expected for the
extended with high pressure in control through the week and
weekend. A weak upper trough crosses the area for the latter
part of the weekend, however, the surface ridge should keep
things dry. Will keep with a dry forecast Thu- Monday. Temps
will slowly trend upwards starting out in the mid 80s Thursday,
then gradually rising to the lower 90s Sun/Mon. Very seasonable
for late July.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 830 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions noted inland and over northern terminals, with
widespread MVFR/lcl IFR along the SE coast (ORF-ECG). Short
lived IFR likely along the SE terminals with low-levels still
saturated. Expect clearing early Wed morning, with conditions
expected to improve to VFR from late morning through the end of
the TAF period.

Outlook: Sfc high pressure builds over the region through
midweek, bringing predominate VFR conditions from Wed night
through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

A frontal boundary will become stationary across northeast NC and
the northern OBX by late this afternoon/evening, with low pressure
riding north along the boundary as it slides offshore overnight.
Currently seeing modest S winds 15-25 kt over the northern OBX and
Currituck Sound south of the boundary, with lesser NNE winds 5-15 kt
north of the boundary. Expecting similar winds through about
midnight as the frontal boundary moves offshore. Therefore, will
maintain SCAs for the Currituck Sound and coastal waters south of
Cape Charles Light. Remaining SCAs have been cancelled. Winds will
vary between NW and NNE at 10-15 kt late tonight through Wednesday
with a least some model indication that a secondary push of elevated
winds may occur. Not quite sold on SCA criteria for any one part of
our marine area, so no SCAs planned at the moment. Seas remaining 2-
4 ft through Wed; waves on the Ches bay generally 1-2 ft.

Sfc high pressure builds in behind the front from late Wed into the
weekend keeping NE to E winds 5-15 kt. Seas remaining 2-4 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ092-093-
     095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ633-656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/JAO
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ERI/JAO
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...ERI/CP
MARINE...JDM


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